Risk Parity Radio

Episode 497: Critiquing A Problematic Portfolio, A New Listener Tool, 401K Quandaries, And Mucho Mucho Gratitude

In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Marcus Vindictus, and Sharon.  We take a hard look at what “diversified” really means in retirement and why correlations matter more than fund count. We also talk about simplifying messy accounts, using AI to decode bad 401(k) menus, and making generosity a real part of financial independence. And we do a fundraising update for Mary's charity, Fairfax CASA, and discuss how CASA stability changes kids’ lives in our Queen Mary segment. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA [https://www.fairfaxcasa.org/give-now/] Testfolio Fund Analysis:  Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio [https://testfol.io/analysis?s=d7meom0DNN7] Testfolio Portfolio Comparison:  Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio [https://testfol.io/?s=iyEz7euEEkj] Merriman Best-in-Class ETFs:  Best ETFs 2025 | Merriman Financial Education Foundation [https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations-2025#gsc.tab=0] Dave's Cool New Tool:  Rebalancer [https://www.portfoliorebal.com/login] Catching Up To FI 401k Podcast:  Is Your 401(k) a Mess? Do This Now (Step-by-Step Guide) | Bill & Jackie | 205 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQOXbhhXNEU&list=PLWTPXecKXgQBnJEemi__WAOjHKTruwwhj] Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: A retirement portfolio can look “responsible” on paper and still blow up when you start taking withdrawals. We dig into a real listener email from a DIY investor who is close to early retirement and trying to understand why an advisor-built mix of total market stocks, dividends, international, corporate bonds, and high-yield bonds doesn’t behave like a true risk parity portfolio when markets get rough. We walk through the core retirement investing principles we use: define the goal (including a realistic safe withdrawal rate), check correlations so you know whether you’re actually diversified, and stress test over the decades that matter like the 1970s and the early 2000s. Along the way, we explain why credit-heavy bond funds can move with stocks, why Treasury bonds tend to be the better ballast, and why adding true alternatives like gold and managed futures has historically improved drawdown control and withdrawal outcomes. We also tackle two problems nearly every investor hits: the “robo-advisor spaghetti” account stuffed with hundreds of holdings, and the frustrating 401(k) plan menu full of overpriced or confusing funds. We share a practical shortcut for the 401(k) problem: paste the fund list into an AI tool and ask it which options are closest to an S&P 500 fund or total market index fund and which ones have the lowest fees. You’ll also hear updates on our fundraising for Fairfax CASA plus a reminder that money is most powerful when it supports a life well lived through giving, volunteering, and legacy planning. If this helps, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a rating or review. Support the show [https://www.riskparityradio.com/support]

Episode 496: The Dangers Of Fixating On Tickers, Minimizing Taxes On Cash, Transitions, And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 27, 2026

In this episode we answer questions from Dustin, Optimus Bill and Scott.  We discuss the common mistake of chasing tickers and low fees instead of building a portfolio around goals and carefully chosen asset classes, cowbell origins, what to do with large allocations to cash equivalents and how much do you really need, and transitioning to a retirement portfolio.  Hint:  Search "transitioning" on the podcast page at the website for more podcasts about that. We also review March market damage and show how diversified risk parity style portfolios hold up when stocks stumble. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio [https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios]. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA [https://www.fairfaxcasa.org/give-now/] How To Do An Asset Swap Video from Risk Parity Chronicles:  How to Do an Asset Swap [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX2WX6iTRTw] Afford Anything Episode #618:  They Ran Out of Money. I Didn’t. Here’s Why. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUCnmXs3XVM] Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Zero-fee funds, shiny tickers, and “close enough” substitutions can feel like smart investing, right up until you realize they’re steering your entire asset allocation. We dig into listener questions that expose a common trap: building a portfolio around a fund you like instead of designing a plan around your goals, your time horizon, and the asset classes that actually do the work. We break down Fidelity Zero funds through a practical lens: mutual fund vs ETF structure, tax efficiency, portability across brokerages, and how to confirm what you’re buying with tools like the Morningstar style box. We also talk plainly about expense ratios in a world where most fees are already low, and why rebalancing, diversification, and holding the intended exposures matter more than shaving a few basis points. Then we tackle a deceptively simple question about gold. GLTR holds multiple precious metals, but gold has a unique role as a central-bank reserve asset that behaves differently from silver, platinum, and palladium. If your portfolio needs gold as an alternative currency style diversifier, you want a gold ETF, not a basket that “kind of” looks similar. We also cover asset location and the asset swap idea for cash equivalents, how much to keep in checking for real-life spending, and when it makes sense to shift from an all-stock accumulation portfolio toward Golden Ratio or Golden Butterfly as you approach your financial independence number. Finally, we run through March performance across major assets and our sample portfolios, including a clear reminder about what leverage can do in rough markets. If you found this helpful, subscribe, share it with a DIY investor friend, and leave a quick review so more people can find the show. Support the show [https://www.riskparityradio.com/support]

Episode 495: EconoMe, Fairfax CASA, Speculations On Chaos, New 401k Regs, And More Cowbell

In this episode we answer emails from Andy, John, and Todd.  We discuss what "holding dollars" means, the lure of speculation on recent events, the ongoing inadequacies of 401k and 403b plans and their incentives, and small cap value vs. small cap blend.  More Cowbell!  Before that we trade stories from the EconoMe Conference and spotlight Fairfax CASA’s work with foster kids and our fundraising efforts. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA [https://www.fairfaxcasa.org/give-now/] EconoMe Presentation on Financial Forecasting and Base Rates:  F. Vasquez EconoMe 2026 Final Slides.pdf - Google Drive [https://drive.google.com/file/d/18u44QE_NnoJCkUzYVkBtFkspXjwQNURr/view] Testfolio Comparison of LCV vs. LCG vs. SCV vs. SCG:  testfol.io/?s=cSv9C5VxOW9 [https://testfol.io/?s=cSv9C5VxOW9] Testfolio Comparison of Golden Ratio Portfolios with Small Cap Variants:  testfol.io/?s=hTcOUvd0g4J [https://testfol.io/?s=hTcOUvd0g4J] Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Markets get weird fast: oil shocks, war headlines, and that sickening moment when it feels like every asset in your portfolio is moving together. We dig into a question that pops up in exactly those moments: what does it actually mean when traders say they’re “holding dollars,” and is there a DIY investor version that makes sense? We walk through the mechanics behind dollar demand, why institutional cash moves don’t map neatly onto a home risk parity portfolio, and why cash timing is a low-odds game for long-term investors. From there, we tackle the real culprit behind most bad decisions: the urge to tinker. We talk leverage, opportunistic investing, and the seductive idea that you’ll spot the perfect entry point if you just watch enough financial news. Our view stays consistent: a disciplined asset allocation, a clear rebalancing rule, and the patience to wait out uncertainty usually beat prediction. If you absolutely must scratch the itch, we discuss how some investors think about volatility tools when the VIX is elevated, and why even “smart” speculation should be capped and rules-based. We also answer a practical retirement-plan headache: building diversified risk parity style exposure inside a 401k or 403b with limited fund menus. We explain why plan options change slowly, what kinds of “alternative investments” may show up instead, and why pushing for a self-directed brokerage window can be the most effective workaround. Finally, we close with a nerdy but important allocation question: small cap value vs small cap blend, how small cap growth can sneak in, and why index selection (CRSP vs deeper value tilts like S&P 600 value style exposure) can change what your backtest is really telling you. Subscribe for more DIY investing clarity, share the show with a friend who keeps tinkering, and leave a quick review with your biggest portfolio question. Support the show [https://www.riskparityradio.com/support]

Episode 494: More Gooooold, Calculator Comparisons, Planning And Portfolios, And Looking For Those Elusive Risk Parity Style Advisors

In this episode we answer emails from Nicholas, Nathan and Lisa.  We discuss  how much gold is enough and how much is too much, why calculators disagree and the best ways to use them, and what “better” means when the future is uncertain. We also walk through a FIRE portfolio headed toward retirement and talk briefly about finding an advisor familiar with risk parity principles. And before that, in our Queen Mary segment, we hear a Fairfax CASA story about how consistent advocacy supports kids in foster care. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA [https://www.fairfaxcasa.org/give-now/] Nicholas's Gold Analysis Link:  Plotting withdrawal rates, drawdowns, and returns for different risk parity portfolios - Google Sheets [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SB1hHvLlOc--mRRsemq4tjEA3RHcYAJAbPSp_tP42Rs/edit?gid=0#gid=0] Testfolio Golden Backtests:  testfol.io/?s=45IearFlQbV [https://testfol.io/?s=45IearFlQbV] Afford Anything Episode #618:  They Ran Out of Money. I Didn’t. Here’s Why [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUCnmXs3XVM] Afford Anything Risk Parity Portfolio Blueprint:  Afford Anything frank-vasquez-risk-parity-portfolio-BluePrint.pdf - Google Drive [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j4POdHnw21zZn4vdi6Zo4si38Ul-opZI/view] Optimus Bill's Interview on Bigger Pockets Money:  The Decumulation Strategy After Hitting Financial Independence | Bill Yount [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21ea5wepb7w] Optimus Bill on Catching Up to FI:  Founder of 'Catching Up to FI' Just Hit Financial Independence, Now What? | Bill Yount | 196 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZhSF2BVolA] Optimus Bill's Financial Advisor:  Kardinal Financial — Flat Fee & Fee-Only Financial Advisor Bryan Minogue | Madison, WI [https://kardinalfinancial.com/] Breathless AI-Bot Summary: A backtest can make almost any portfolio look brilliant, especially when one tweak “wins” by a fraction of a percent. We dig into one of the most common examples: gold allocation in a risk parity portfolio. If PortfolioCharts shows 20 to 25 percent gold beating 10 to 15 percent for safe withdrawal rate, should you follow the numbers or trust your nerves? We explain where the 10 to 15 percent “sweet spot” comes from, why tiny gold slices rarely matter, and how overfitting turns a clean chart into a fragile plan. From there we zoom out to the real skill: comparing imperfect portfolios without pretending the future will match the past. I share why you should use multiple calculators and multiple datasets, how start dates can change results, and why swapping managed futures, commodities, and gold can flip the outcome. The point is not a magic formula, it is a durable range of allocations that survives uncertainty and keeps sequence of returns risk from wrecking your retirement. We also tackle a detailed FIRE email from a 45-year-old aiming to retire in about five years. We talk expense tracking as the foundation of retirement planning, why liquid assets matter more than net worth, and how to upgrade diversification with Treasury bonds rather than corporate-heavy bond funds. Finally, we cover inflation protection realities, including why TIPS can still drop in a rate shock and why managed futures often behave differently when inflation spikes. If you found this useful, subscribe, share it with a friend planning retirement, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find Risk Parity Radio. Support the show [https://www.riskparityradio.com/support]

Episode 493: Our Raison D'etre, Common Investor Fallacies, UK Investing Notes, Treasury Bond Correlations, And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 13, 2026

In this episode we answer emails from Lee, Leo, Tony, and Samuel.  We revel in Lee's generosity and discuss why we hold gold and treasuries, why recent performance should not drive allocation changes and common amateur investor fallacies, how to think about diversification when you invest outside the US, and how to think about correlations in a four quadrant model. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio [https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios]. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA [https://www.fairfaxcasa.org/give-now/] David Stein Interview:  How to Think Clearly About Money Without Obsessing Over It with David Stein | White Coat Investor [https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/how-to-think-clearly-about-money-without-obsessing-over-it-with-david-stein-462/] Portfolio Charts International Portfolios Analysis:  What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts [https://portfoliocharts.com/2024/04/01/what-global-withdrawal-rates-teach-us-about-ideal-retirement-portfolios/] Many Happy Returns Podcast with Tyler #!:  Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts - Many Happy Returns [https://many-happy-returns.captivate.fm/episode/building-a-bulletproof-retirement-portfolio] Many Happy Returns Podcast with Tyler #2:  How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts - Many Happy Returns [https://many-happy-returns.captivate.fm/episode/how-to-pick-your-perfect-portfolio] Claudia Moise Paper with US Treasuries Correlation Data:  Flights to Safety, Volatility Risk, and Monetary Policy by Claudia E. Moise :: SSRN [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1436124] Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summaries: Gold is up, bonds are weird, and everyone suddenly wants to “swap something out” based on what happened last quarter. We slow that impulse down and get back to first principles: what job does each asset do in a long-term risk parity style portfolio, and what happens when you start making allocation decisions from a gut feeling about what looks overbought or hated right now? We dig into a listener question about replacing gold inside the Golden Ratio Portfolio and explain why utilities are not a true substitute. Utilities can be useful, but they behave like stocks more than people admit, and they often carry interest-rate sensitivity that overlaps with bonds. If you want something that behaves more like gold’s diversifying role, we talk through what characteristics matter most, including low correlation to both stocks and bonds, and why managed futures is the more logical comparison. Along the way, we call out the common traps that wreck DIY portfolios: cherry-picked dates, short-term volatility panic, and the “crystal ball” mindset that quietly turns investing into trading. For our non-US listeners, we tackle how being based in the UK or investing in pound sterling can change implementation details without changing the big picture goal. We discuss currency risk, home-country bias, why US equities still matter for global exposure, and the tough question of whether your bond ballast should be in local currency, US dollars, or a mix. Then we answer a deep question about correlations: why stock-bond correlation is not random, how it shifts across macro regimes, and why treasuries tend to deliver negative correlation when it matters most, during recessions. We close with weekly portfolio performance across our sample portfolios and why the most disciplined move is often to do nothing. Support the show [https://www.riskparityradio.com/support]