The Markets Just Called BS on AOC's Surging Poll Numbers

Election Investments Galore! Pick Your Primary and Profit!

It’s primary election day in many states across the nation; Stu Burguiere has the advice you need to make sound prediction market investments and walk away with some political profits as the playing field shapes up for November’s midterms. Then, Dan Andros is back with his take on the Thomas Massie primary in Kentucky and former reality star Spencer Pratt’s longshot campaign for mayor of Los Angeles. Plus, Stu looks at some of the ways our wonderful viewers are engaging in the political field and making it work towards their portfolios. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

We Made a GREAT Investment on Cassidy; But What About Massie?

The Trump-led opposition to Bill Cassidy’s reelection yielded big results for those making smart moves in the Louisiana primary prediction markets, but what about Tuesday’s upcoming primary between Thomas Massie and Ed Gallrein in Kentucky? Stu Burguiere previews the race and how to plan for smart investments. Plus, some new developments emerge in the case of potential insider trading regarding the Iran War. And, a look at the rapidly-changing markets for “The Mandalorian & Grogu” as it’s potential Rotten Tomatoes score jumps around the board and a breakdown of the Ronda Rousey - Gina Carano fight on Netflix that made and lost a lot of people a lot of money VERY quickly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

The 10x Trade Hiding in Louisiana

Trump has spent four years hunting one Republican senator: Bill Cassidy. Now Cassidy is trading at just 2 cents to survive his own Louisiana primary. But the real opportunity may not be taking a position against Cassidy. It may be on whether Trump-backed Julia Letlow wins outright Saturday night and avoids a runoff entirely. Stu breaks down the Cassidy revenge saga, the market mispricing hiding inside Louisiana’s weird election system, a cross-platform arb opportunity between Polymarket and Kalshi, listener questions on strategy and risk, and one long-shot weekend fight market Stu kinda likes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

The Markets Just Called BS on AOC's Surging Poll Numbers

AOC just got one of the biggest 2028 polling headlines yet… but prediction markets barely reacted at all. On today’s Predictable, Stu breaks down why the media may be dramatically overreacting to the latest AOC surge poll — and why traders with actual money on the line don’t seem convinced. Stu digs into the sampling behind the poll, the growing “President AOC?” narrative, and what the Kalshi and Polymarket odds are really signaling about the Democratic field. If the poll was truly a game changer… why didn’t the market move? Plus: * AOC’s viral comments about billionaires and “earning” wealth * Her eyebrow-raising answer about a possible White House run * The latest 2028 Democratic nominee odds * Polymarket officially goes fully live in the U.S. * And the bizarre anti-Spencer Pratt ad that may actually HELP him The headlines say one thing. The markets may be telling a very different story. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

'Lies': Stu Responds to Critics

What’s the difference between insider trading and informed trading? Stu responds to the mounting number of lies in the media and politics about prediction markets. And when it comes to prediction markets, is the line a lot blurrier than politicians and the media want to admit? On today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the growing controversy around campaign staffers, political insiders, and prediction market traders cashing in on information advantages during election season. Is this corruption? Or is this exactly how markets are supposed to work? From the NPR report raising eyebrows in Washington to the Senate quietly moving to ban lawmakers from participating in prediction markets, Stu explains why incentives matter more than headlines — and why markets often reveal the truth long before the media does. Plus: * Why prediction markets may actually reward transparency * The uncomfortable comparison between Congress and market traders * The difference between “having information” and illegal insider trading * Why some of the loudest critics of prediction markets may have the most to lose Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter way to follow the news. We break down the biggest stories using prediction markets to show what’s actually likely to happen, not just what people are saying. Understand the incentives. Spot the mispricing. Take a position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]