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S2EP62 | Sensex Expiry Tomorrow. The Fed Tonight. 24000 Held | 17th June Wed
Beskrivelse
Yesterday the number everyone watched finally gave way. 24000. Four times this market ran at it and four times it got thrown back. On the fifth try Nifty pushed to 24002 and, for the first time, closed on the number at 23989. A foothold at last. But park that win, because the real action is the next two sunrises. Tonight the United States Federal Reserve sets rates, after we have gone home. And tomorrow the Sensex expires. Today is not the main event, today is the setup. The Sensex closed 76808, up 544 points, three-quarters of a percent, and the leadership flipped. The IT pack, dead last on Monday, was suddenly first, HCL Tech up 3.6 percent, dragging the index up with the financials and Reliance. Nifty rode the same wave to 23989, up 135. Now read the expiry board it left behind. The Sensex expiry is a textbook pin. The put writers, betting we hold, stacked their heaviest support at 76500, the single biggest block on the board, and piled almost 9.5 lakh fresh contracts on it yesterday. The call writers, betting we stall, sit thickest at 77000 then 77500. So the box is 76500 floor, 77000 roof. The whole-chain put-call ratio is 1.44, a bullish tilt. The at-the-money straddle is about 645 points, a straddle-implied band of roughly 76160 to 77450, and the one-standard-deviation math lands almost identical at about 660 either side. Two methods, same answer. The switch, the gamma flip, sits near 76850, just above the close, below it moves amplify, above it the tape pins. The Nifty board is stranger. On the next weekly both walls sit on one brick, 24000, the heaviest written calls and the heaviest written puts in the whole market on the same strike, 6.5 crore of calls and 5.4 crore of puts, a magnet. PCR 1.03, straddle about 326, a band of 23663 to 24315, gamma flip right at 24000. Both indices are coiled on their hinges into a Fed night. The positioning says up. The foreign desk bought a second straight day in cash, another 384 crore, but in the futures it is still short roughly 2.3 lakh contracts. The cover is real but unfinished, and that is the fuel if the walls give way. Domestic funds sold 1152 crore. The complication is overnight. The Nasdaq fell 1.15 percent before tonight's Fed, so the IT pack that did the work yesterday stares at a red screen, your first tell. Watch IT, then the financials that must hold, then the laggards, autos, metals and PSU banks. Everything else is friendly, Brent crude at 79, rupee firm at 94.56, GIFT flat at 24009. The plan is patient. Sensex, hold above 76500 and the bias is up into expiry, over 76900 opens 77000 then 77500, lose 76500 and it breaks to 76000. Nifty, do not chase 24000, buy the dip into 23900 to 23800, take off into 24100, wrong only below 23650. And size down into the event. VIX collapsed to 13.36, but cheap premium on a Fed day is not a free lunch, do not sell into a central bank or buy the breakout before it. Episode 61 graded 4.5 of 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Stream free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data from NSE, BSE and NSDL.
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