Episode 31: Tense Times in Texas's Senate Race, with Patrick Svitek of CNN

Episode 33: Where the Race for Congress Stands 5 Months Out, with Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the midterms fewer than five months out, we took stock of where things stand in the 2026 race for Congress. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for power to change hands. In the House, the GOP holds a 220-215 majority that is imperiled by an electoral environment in which Democrats lead the generic ballot by around 6 percentage points. However, congressional lines have changed a lot due to redistricting. To talk about this, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Kyle Kondik [https://x.com/kkondik], the Managing Editor [https://centerforpolitics.org/kyle-d-kondik/] of Sabato’s Crystal Ball [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/] at the University of Virginia Center for Politics [https://centerforpolitics.org/]. They began by looking at the situation in the House of Representatives, where redistricting has left fewer competitive or potentially competitive seat (2:46). All told, Kyle estimates [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/taking-stock-of-the-2026-house-map-an-update/] that Republicans gained around five to nine seats from redistricting, based on the Crystal Ball’s ratings. That means that the GOP is effectively heading into November with around 225 or more seats rather than the 220 the party won in 2024. But the fly in the ointment for Republicans looks to be the electoral environment, most easily illustrated by the Democrats’ advantage in the generic ballot [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/generic-ballot/national/lv-rv-adults] (17:01). Right now, the Democrats have a big enough lead (6 or so points) to be favored to take back the House despite the GOP’s redistricting gains. Another problem for Republicans is that President Trump’s approval rating on the economy, traditionally one of his strongest issues, is actually running below his overall approval — that could lead the bottom to drop out if the GOP isn’t careful (22:10). At the same time, Democrats run the risk of having their own tea party-like moment in which they nominate weaker, out-of-the-mainstream candidates who cost them winnable seats. Kyle and Geoffrey then looked at the situation in California’s 22nd District, which illustrates some of these challenges for each side (24:56). On the one hand, Republican Rep. David Valadao only won about 41% of the top-two primary vote [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-02/california-us-house-22-primary] while his two Democratic opponents won a combined 59%. Historically, Valadao’s figure would portend defeat in the general election. However, the more progressive Democrat advanced to the general election, which might open the door to Valadao making things competitive — if that Democrat turns out to be a poor candidate. They turned to a discussion of four Senate seats, starting with North Carolina (32:05). The Crystal Ball has shifted its rating [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-senate-the-race-for-the-majority-is-not-a-toss-up-but-the-races-that-will-decide-it-are/] in North Carolina to give Democrats a slight edge, as former Gov. Roy Cooper is polling at about 50% with a sizable lead. Democrats may have a better shot at flipping that state now than blue-leaning Maine, where Democrat Graham Platner has faced a series of controversies [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-32-2026s-maine-event-with] (38:11). The Crystal Ball has also moved Ohio and Alaska to toss-up status, which speaks to how they are likely the Democrats’ best targets among the more red-leaning seats that the party has to flip to win a Senate majority (42:32). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Decision Desk 2026: Maine, South Carolina & Nevada Primaries

On June 9, four states held their regular primary elections [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/south-carolina-maine-nevada-june-9-primary-platner-collins-senate]. The top race was Maine’s U.S. Senate contest [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-senate-general-election], where controversy-laden Graham Platner won the Democratic primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-us-senate-democratic-primary] to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But there were also crowded gubernatorial primaries in South Carolina [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary] (GOP) and Maine [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-governor-democratic-primary] (Democrats), plus much more in Nevada and North Dakota. At 7:30 p.m. Eastern, we kicked off our coverage of all the primary action on the Decision Desk 2026: Maine, Nevada & South Carolina Primary Livestream from Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We were joined by guest experts throughout the night to talk about what the results meant for November and beyond. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 32: 2026's Maine Event, with Michael Shepherd of the Bangor Daily News

One 2026 election seems to keep grabbing all the headlines: Maine’s U.S. Senate race [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-senate-general-election]. There, Democrat Graham Platner keeps making news, and usually for the wrong reasons. Reports recently surfaced [https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/graham-platners-wife-flagged-sexually-explicit-texts-to-his-senate-campaign-628ec832] that reported that Platner had sent sexually explicit texts to women who were not his wife. This is just the latest in a drip, drip, drip of controversial stories [https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5904697-sexting-scandal-threatens-platner-senate-bid/] about Platner, the likely Democratic nominee to face Sen. Susan Collins. This is one of the most important Senate races [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-still-underdogs-senate-vibes] in 2026, as Collins is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. To help make sense of what’s happening in Maine, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Michael Shepherd [https://x.com/mikeshepherdME], politics editor at the Bangor Daily News [https://www.bangordailynews.com/author/mshepherd/]. They opened by talking about what people are saying on the ground and how the race got to this point (2:11). In the Democratic primary, Platner rose quickly and bested Gov. Janet Mills in polls and fundraising, prompting her to drop out (5:44). Platner has generated crowds in every corner of Maine and has been more willing to aggressively attack Collins, calling her “corrupt” — a campaign Mills would not run against her (10:00). But with Platner’s difficulties, Collins has ample material to use against him — and a ton of money at her campaign’s disposal to inform voters about his problems. Collins is an institution in Maine, having even won reelection in years when the state voted handily for Democratic presidential candidates in 2008 and 2020 (16:17). She’s used quality constituent services and a very town-by-town campaign apparatus to boost her standing. And her effectiveness as a senator has helped her consistently win over independent-minded voters and the persuadable middle. Given Platner’s difficulties, Democrats in D.C. and Maine are worried that there will be more skeletons in Platner’s closet that will sink him against Collins (25:55). If things do get worse for Platner, Maine Democrats could replace him as the Democratic nominee by choosing another candidate at a party gathering — but only if he first agrees to withdraw. Were Collins to win reelection, this would greatly constrict Democrats’ path to winning a Senate majority, perhaps making it impossible. Michael and Geoffrey closed by talking about two other races (37:58). Maine’s crowded Democratic primary for governor [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-governor-democratic-primary] is unpredictable, especially with the use of ranked-choice voting. On the Republican side [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-governor-republican-primary], former federal prosecutor Bobby Charles looks like the favorite, although the GOP also has an even more crowded field (43:38). They then discussed the competitive 2nd Congressional District [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-house-2-general-election], which is open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (48:43). Republican former Gov. Paul LePage [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-us-house-2-republican-primary] may have the upper hand to take back the red-leaning seat, while Democrats have a competitive four-way primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-us-house-2-democratic-primary]. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Decision Desk 2026: California & More Primaries

June is here and so are more primaries! On June 2, six states held their regular primary elections: California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Our election night program was Decision Desk 2026: California & More Primary Livestream, presente by Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We started at 9 p.m. Eastern and were joined by guest experts throughout the night. Check out Decision Desk HQ's new Discord [http://discord.gg/ddhq]. It's a great place for online election nerds, and a place to talk about tonight's primaries and every other election coming up this yea This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 31: Tense Times in Texas's Senate Race, with Patrick Svitek of CNN

In the past eight years, Georgia has become a critical battleground state. That’s the case once again this year as the Peach State hosts highly competitive contests for U.S. Senate and governor. To talk about all things Georgia ahead of the state’s May 19 primary election, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Greg Bluestein [https://x.com/bluestein], the chief political reporter [https://www.ajc.com/staff/greg-bluestein/] at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They started with Greg’s thoughts on Georgia’s overall political situation (2:31). Greg noted some warning signs for Republicans, including the Democrats’ sweeping victories in a pair [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/georgia-public-service-commissioner-2-special-election-general] of 2025 special elections [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/georgia-public-service-commissioner-3-special-election-general] for Georgia’s Public Service Commission. They then dug into the Senate race [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/georgia-us-senate-general-election], where Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democrat seeking reelection [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-still-underdogs-senate-vibes] in a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024 (7:20). Republicans have a three-way Senate primary that looks headed to a runoff (13:51). Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are running, but so is former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has the backing of outgoing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Collins looks likely to make the prospective runoff, while Carter and Dooley are fighting for the second spot. Should Ossoff defeat the eventual GOP nominee in November, he could be a potential 2028 presidential contender (23:03). Greg and Geoffrey then turned to the gubernatorial race, where both parties have primaries likely to go to runoffs (26:45). In the Republican primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-governor-republican-primary], Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has Trump’s endorsement, but healthcare executive Rick Jackson has shaken up the race with at least $83 million in self-funding (28:40). In the Democratic primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-governor-democratic-primary] for governor, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the favorite (38:04). However, she could find herself in a runoff against one of a number of other Democrats in the race. They closed by talking about the consequences of Georgia’s gubernatorial race as well potential redistricting at a special legislative session [https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/gov-kemp-calls-lawmakers-back-for-redistricting-special-session/] (47:56). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]