Decision Desk HQ Podcast

Episode 31: Tense Times in Texas's Senate Race, with Patrick Svitek of CNN

In the past eight years, Georgia has become a critical battleground state. That’s the case once again this year as the Peach State hosts highly competitive contests for U.S. Senate and governor. To talk about all things Georgia ahead of the state’s May 19 primary election, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Greg Bluestein [https://x.com/bluestein], the chief political reporter [https://www.ajc.com/staff/greg-bluestein/] at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They started with Greg’s thoughts on Georgia’s overall political situation (2:31). Greg noted some warning signs for Republicans, including the Democrats’ sweeping victories in a pair [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/georgia-public-service-commissioner-2-special-election-general] of 2025 special elections [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/georgia-public-service-commissioner-3-special-election-general] for Georgia’s Public Service Commission. They then dug into the Senate race [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/georgia-us-senate-general-election], where Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democrat seeking reelection [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-still-underdogs-senate-vibes] in a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024 (7:20). Republicans have a three-way Senate primary that looks headed to a runoff (13:51). Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are running, but so is former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has the backing of outgoing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Collins looks likely to make the prospective runoff, while Carter and Dooley are fighting for the second spot. Should Ossoff defeat the eventual GOP nominee in November, he could be a potential 2028 presidential contender (23:03). Greg and Geoffrey then turned to the gubernatorial race, where both parties have primaries likely to go to runoffs (26:45). In the Republican primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-governor-republican-primary], Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has Trump’s endorsement, but healthcare executive Rick Jackson has shaken up the race with at least $83 million in self-funding (28:40). In the Democratic primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-governor-democratic-primary] for governor, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the favorite (38:04). However, she could find herself in a runoff against one of a number of other Democrats in the race. They closed by talking about the consequences of Georgia’s gubernatorial race as well potential redistricting at a special legislative session [https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/gov-kemp-calls-lawmakers-back-for-redistricting-special-session/] (47:56). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 30: Reading Georgia's 2026 Peach Leaves, with Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution

In the past eight years, Georgia has become a critical battleground state. That’s the case once again this year as the Peach State hosts highly competitive contests for U.S. Senate and governor. To talk about all things Georgia ahead of the state’s May 19 primary election, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Greg Bluestein [https://x.com/bluestein], the chief political reporter [https://www.ajc.com/staff/greg-bluestein/] at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They started with Greg’s thoughts on Georgia’s overall political situation (2:31). Greg noted some warning signs for Republicans, including the Democrats’ sweeping victories in a pair [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/georgia-public-service-commissioner-2-special-election-general] of 2025 special elections [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/georgia-public-service-commissioner-3-special-election-general] for Georgia’s Public Service Commission. They then dug into the Senate race [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/georgia-us-senate-general-election], where Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democrat seeking reelection [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-still-underdogs-senate-vibes] in a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024 (7:20). Republicans have a three-way Senate primary that looks headed to a runoff (13:51). Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are running, but so is former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has the backing of outgoing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Collins looks likely to make the prospective runoff, while Carter and Dooley are fighting for the second spot. Should Ossoff defeat the eventual GOP nominee in November, he could be a potential 2028 presidential contender (23:03). Greg and Geoffrey then turned to the gubernatorial race, where both parties have primaries likely to go to runoffs (26:45). In the Republican primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-governor-republican-primary], Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has Trump’s endorsement, but healthcare executive Rick Jackson has shaken up the race with at least $83 million in self-funding (28:40). In the Democratic primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-governor-democratic-primary] for governor, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the favorite (38:04). However, she could find herself in a runoff against one of a number of other Democrats in the race. They closed by talking about the consequences of Georgia’s gubernatorial race as well potential redistricting at a special legislative session [https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/gov-kemp-calls-lawmakers-back-for-redistricting-special-session/] (47:56). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 29: Redistricting Chaos After Callais, with Nathaniel Rakich from Votebeat

Last week, the Supreme Court issued its ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which weakened the power of the Voting Rights Act [https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/04/29/louisiana-v-callais-redistricting-voting-rights-act-racial-partisan-gerrymandering/] to adjudicate claims of racially discriminatory redistricting. In the wake of this ruling, Republican-controlled states in the South have quickly moved to redistrict their congressional maps. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discussed these developments with Nathaniel Rakich [https://x.com/baseballot], the managing editor of Votebeat [https://www.votebeat.org/authors/nathaniel-rakich/]. They looked at the partisan shakeup [https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/05/04/florida-redistricting-supreme-court-louisiana-callais-gerrymander-2026-election/] ahead of the 2026 midterms and the longer-term ramifications of the decision. They began by talking about the overall picture following the Callais decision (2:55). The ruling is part of a redistricting “perfect storm” that combines the ongoing redistricting conflict and adds in some Southern states with majority-Black seats that could now redraw as well. The partisan consequences of the prospective new maps in the South will bring about some Republican gains in 2026. The overall redistricting arithmetic could increasingly favor the GOP, although Democrats could ameliorate this damage thanks to a blue-leaning midterm electoral environment (10:20). Nathaniel and Geoffrey then went through the Southern states that are set to redistrict or could redraw. They started with Louisiana, which is the only state with a map that the Callais decision actually deemed unconstitutional. Louisiana Republicans sound inclined to draw a map that would give them a 5-1 edge, up from 4-2 under the current lines. But surprisingly, the early scuttlebutt is that Republicans may draw one blue seat around Baton Rouge rather than New Orleans, which could endanger Democratic Rep. Troy Carter [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2024-11-05/louisiana-us-house-2-general-election] (16:20). Nearby, Alabama is positioning itself to potentially re-implement the map the state used in 2022, which gave Republicans a 6-1 edge. This would remove the second majority-Black seat currently held by [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/52887] Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures that the state used in the 2024 election (24:19). Meanwhile, Tennessee Republicans are proceeding with a new map that will dismantle the state’s only Democratic seat, a majority-Black district around Memphis [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2024-11-05/tennessee-us-house-9-general-election] held by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen (28:30). The map is drawn surgically, such that President Trump would have won 59% or more in all nine of Tennessee’s districts. From there, they discussed how South Carolina Republicans have opened the door to possibly redrawing the district held by [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2024-11-05/south-carolina-us-house-6-general-election] longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn — though it is unclear if they will actually do so (33:27). They closed by talking about the long-term implications of the Callais decision and the further ratcheting up of the national redistricting conflict (38:52) Democrats are looking for ways to respond to these Republican redraws. But many Democratic-led states would need to pass constitutional amendments to enable remaps, which means they would not be able to redraw until before the 2028 election. At the same time, other Republican-run states could also respond in 2028, including Indiana, where a cohort of GOP state senators just lost primaries [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/what-happened-last-night-trump-asserts] after opposing the Trump-backed congressional redistricting effort. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Decision Desk 2026: Ohio + Indiana Primaries

On Tuesday, Indiana and Ohio voters went to the polls for their regular primary elections. This included contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, and a whole lot more. Beginning at 6:30 p.m. Eastern that evening, we covered the results as part of Decision Desk 2026: Virginia Redistricting Livestream from Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We were joined by guest experts throughout the night.Among this cornucopia of elections happening on May 5, the most-watched races were a slate of state Senate primaries in Indiana. There, President Donald Trump endorsed primary challengers against seven Republican state senators who last year helped foil legislation that would have redrawn Indiana’s congressional map to make it more favorable to the GOP.AdImpact reported that ad spending in Indiana’s state Senate primaries had totaled around $13.5 million, around $13 million more than any other recent cycle. That spoke to the outside money that had poured into these seven primaries. Two of the highest-spending groups, Hoosier Leadership for America and American Leadership PAC, targeted the incumbents who opposed redistricting. Both organizations were associated with Republican Sen. Jim Banks and led by Andrew Surabian, a longtime member of Trump’s political circle. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 28: Why Ohio is pivotal in 2026, with Jeremy Pelzer of the Cleveland Plain Dealer

Ohio may not be the swing state it once was in presidential elections. But it will still pack a punch in the 2026 midterms. The state has a pivotal U.S. Senate race [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/ohio-us-senate-special-election-general] that will help decide the majority [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-still-underdogs-senate-vibes], a number of competitive U.S. House contests, and a gubernatorial contest [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-05/ohio-governor-republican-primary] that could also be very close. Ahead of the Buckeye State’s May 5 primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/], Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Jeremy Pelzer [https://x.com/jpelzer] about all things O-H-I-O [https://youtu.be/UbdXgAWuU_E?si=Mx-rIfFPXO-ZkC2s]. Jeremy is the chief politics reporter [https://www.cleveland.com/staff/jpelzer/] for the Cleveland Plain Dealer, where he’s covered Ohio politics and government since 2013. They started out by discussing Jeremy’s overall view of the state of play in Ohio (2:37). Digging into the races, they looked at the Senate race between appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown, which appears quite competitive (4:25). Husted has a long career in GOP politics and has done much of what he needs to do to keep the Republican coalition behind him. Brown’s an even-better known figure, which could make it tough for him to make a case for change, though he’s been a stronger fundraiser than Husted. Jeremy and Geoffrey explored Ohio’s geography and what will matter to the electoral math, beginning with Brown’s stronger showing in 2024 compared to Kamala Harris, even as he lost reelection (12:57). Formerly Democratic-leaning blue-collar areas that have moved right, like Mahoning Valley in the eastern part of the state, will be pivotal to the hopes of Brown and other Democratic statewide candidates. But Democrats will also need to keep improving in suburban areas in and around places like the state capital of Columbus. They then talked a bit about why Ohio is a key piece of the 2026 Senate math (17:14). They then dove into some of the state’s key U.S. House contests (19:33). Longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is running in a seat [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/ohio-us-house-9-general-election] that’s even redder after redistricting, which understandably drawn many GOP contenders hoping to face Kaptur [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-05/ohio-us-house-9-republican-primary] in November. Republicans also aim to seriously challenge Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/ohio-us-house-1-general-election] and Emilia Sykes [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/ohio-us-house-13-general-election], but both could be fine in a blue-leaning midterm environment (27:49). Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to make inroads in red-leaning seats like the 15th District [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/ohio-us-house-15-general-election], held by Republican Rep. Mike Carey (32:16). They closed by looking at the likely gubernatorial matchup between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, and Democrat Amy Acton, a former state health director (36:45). Despite not having a state-level track record, Ramaswamy pushed aside many potential GOP aspirants to become the party’s preferred candidate. He has been a gangbusters fundraiser who has also self-funded to a large extent, which gives him an important edge. Still, Acton has proven to be a stronger candidate than some expected and has raised a lot money herself. They then talked about the case Ramaswamy is making to Ohioans as a state leader after having become a national figure during the 2024 presidential race (45:05). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]