Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 25, 2028 - Breaking the Mold

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 25, 2028 - Breaking the Mold

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we celebrate the life and times of Alan Greenspan, who died this week at the age of 100. His rich and multi-layered career in which he worked in multiple Presidential administrations and had a close to 19 year tenure as the 18th Chair of the Federal Reserve. The rich phenomena and quotes attributed to him deserve some analysis because of what they teach us about the fabric of markets and the tendency (or not) for patterns to repeat. The first thing to note is the collection of quotes attributed to him, which are in the slides for your viewing pleasure. He clearly relished and practiced the art of deliberate ambiguity in central bank commentary, and coined some pivotal terms, such as “irrational exuberance”. He presided over a relatively stable era, between recessions, in which the triple mandate of low unemployment, low inflation and a low 10 year yield were largely delivered, although there was a challenging “conundrum” towards the end of his tenure when the 10 year yield remained stable despite a steady bout of consecutive rate hikes (17 at one stage). He also gave rise to the Greenspan put, which may have reinforced the concept of “moral hazard” in markets – after 1998 traders believed that Greenspan would step in with monetary easing to steady the stock market. This has been hard to shake and as we saw subsequently in 2008 and during Covid institutions around the world remain ready willing and able to step in most times. The other Greenspan phenomenon was the calling of “irrational exuberance” in markets (pre LTCM in 1997) many years before markets finally cracked in 2000. This is a salutary reminder that markets can be irrational for far longer than one might think. Moving to today’s price action, the oil price has fallen to its pre-war levels, taking some of the sting out of inflation concerns and leading to a fall in the Euro as the pressure on European inflation fell. This echoes a similarly low print in the UK recently, where core inflation had actually fallen into line with the US. The expected rises in Apple device prices came to pass, reflecting a tightened supply of components and upwards pressure on prices. Bonds remained strangely sanguine, both in the UK where a change where the Prime Minister resigned on Monday and the heir apparent looked to be more to the left. The demand for SpaceX bonds was buoyant, particularly as a juicy yield had materialized and the 10 year yield fell in the US as the dollar jumped. There remains divergence in the jobs data alongside other economic indicators although the stock market has continued to sour on some of the Mag 7 stocks – now being referred to as the “Lag Seven). Another interesting data point this week has been the Korean stock market, which I refer to as potentially the “Korea in the Coalmine” as the heightened tech sensitivity in that market led to a steep sell-off by close to 10% earlier in the week. Other notable developments of the week were gold falling to an 8 month low (again reflecting the reversal of the debasement trade) and the fall in Bitcoin to below $60,000.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 18, 2026 - To The Moon

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by two-time guest Christian Abuide, who first appeared on this podcast in April 4, 2026. We start with a comparison of today's market conditions to April 4, 2026, which is quite interesting, given how starkly the narrative has changed with respect to the economic outlook, the outlook for rates and the concerns around geopolitics. This makes us ponder whether we do get distracted by what Kevin Warsh has described as the "echoes of history" expecting historical patterns to repeat, instead of today's nuanced circumstances to play out. We discuss the inflation pattern around the world, in which in the UK core has unexpectedly slipped below that of the US. The energy and food variable may well now start to be less pressing as the Strait of Hormuz opens, but this has not deterred the ECB from its recent rate hike. Meanwhile "poker face" Kevin Warsh gave nothing away at his first press conference and this has stacked the odds of a rate hike before the end of the year. The technical factors in markets continue to affect the performance of SpaceX and other shares, while gold similarly is in decline while the dollar remains supported.

Salon with Prof Alison Taylor of NYU: Corporate Power and Responsibility -

Alison Taylor is a clinical professor in the Business and Society Program at NYU Stern School of Business. She teaches ethics, sustainability, and leadership courses to undergraduate, MBA and EMBA students. She holds senior advisor roles at KKR and Unilever, is an Ethical Systems collaborator and a Senior Advisor at Enlighten. She is also LinkedIn Top Voice, a member of the FT Moral Money advisory board and the author of the successful “Higher Ground” substack. We gathered together a salon of industry participants in London to debate some of the recent topics that Alison has broached, including in particular: The Shift in workplace culture, whereby Alison argues that "Your whole self was never the point". She makes the point that leaders now more often focus on the workflow and replacement of the workflow with new production functions. This raise the question: What is the economy for? And the erosion of trust? If we do not trust people, will we trust AI? We ask if we are in a Zero Trust economy? Or a depleted trust economy? The integration of AI into our workplaces and customer experiences is having an effect on how we behave and who we trust. We ask what are the broader/long-term implications of a zero-trust economy. Moving to the question of whether good governance is still in effect - we ask whether too much complexity – e.g. AI models, quantum computing, is eroding corporate governance. Our salon saw considerable discussion around the pace of change and adoption of AI, what is being lost or threatened in this process, as well as the challenges presented to employees.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 10, 2026 - Live from Dublin - Our Better Nature

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which comes to you live from Dublin, we take our usual tour through market dynamics but take a detour into nature finance, thanks to our hosts in Dublin – Gresham House Asset Management Ireland. We discuss inflation that is moving incontrovertibly in the wrong direction (citing the recent 4.2% print in the US) as well as the shifting stance of Central Banks, which is firmly towards tightening now, with Japan expected to be next and the ECB not far behind. The jobs narrative has taken a stark turn, probably as much for PR reasons as anything else – with the AI IPOs fast approaching. This sits at odds with an increasing wave of anti-AI populism as well as angst regarding AI’s march, and we turn to the Gresham House guests to reflect on whether this same angst and populism is in evidence in Ireland and the EU more generally. We discuss the grid investments in Ireland, which may be lacking, as well as the current consumer sentiment, as it relates to inflation and AI more generally. Moving then to nature finance, we discuss the enduring characteristics of this asset class, particularly around inflation participation, long term investment characteristics, low volatility and return potential. We discuss investor sentiment, where the asset class fits in the portfolio and whether this will ever be an asset class suitable for retail investors.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Live in Dallas with Christie Townsend (aka @ROIChristie)

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - the second of the week - we have a fascinating conversation with Christie Townsend, long-time institutional investor (with the X/Twitter persona @ ROI Christie) with an audience of other senior allocators in Dallas. Our conversation is wonderfully rich - starting with inflation and the divergence between Main Street and Wall Street inflation and moving to the economic vibes with a focus on Texas in particular. As a pro growth state enjoying a real estate boom, and a shift in the percentage of state revenues that come from energy, "drilling in" to the economic vibes in Texas gives an interesting insight into the US more broadly - and we speak about a two speed USA. We have a particularly vigorous debate about policy safety nets and whether there are a good or a bad thing. We reflect on the policy intervention during Covid and the price that was ultimately paid for that - the spike in inflation and the K shaped economy that resulted. We move then to equity market momentum and the impact of FOMO and the analysis of the upcoming SpaceX IPO. We end with geopolitics and the role that this is playing today.