Markets, Meditations, and Mental Models

Brief: Confidence Collapsed. Markets Didn't.

Michigan consumer sentiment hit 44.8, the lowest reading in the survey's seven-decade history, on the same day the Dow closed at an all-time high. The AI subsidy era is cracking as Microsoft cancels Claude Code licenses, Uber burns its entire 2026 AI budget in four months, and token prices climb 65%

Super Brief: Confidence Collapsed. Markets Didn't. — Super Brief

Confidence Collapsed. Markets Didn't.. Michigan consumer sentiment just posted 44.8, the lowest reading in the survey's seventy-year history. The Dow closed at an all-time high the same day. One of these is wrong. The number beneath the headline matters more: long-run inflation expectations hit 3.9%, up 40 basis points, the highest since

Brief: Congress Pulled the Vote. Tehran Leaked the Deal.

Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed Chair while Trump publicly wished for lower rates at the same ceremony. An Iranian peace deal draft leaked via Al-Arabiya, revealing specific terms for the first time. The Dow closed at an all-time record of 50,580 heading into a three-day Memorial Day weekend.

Super Brief: Congress Pulled the Vote. Tehran Leaked the Deal. — Super Brief

Congress Pulled the Vote. Tehran Leaked the Deal.. Two events landed within hours on Friday that only make sense together. House Republicans canceled their vote on the Iran war powers resolution. Separately, an Iranian peace deal draft leaked through Al-Arabiya, revealing a phased withdrawal timeline, a permanent Hormuz toll structure, and an Omani

Brief: $91 Billion and a Shrug

Nvidia guided $91 billion for Q2 excluding China and the stock slipped, Kevin Warsh takes the oath as Fed Chair today inheriting an 8-4 committee split and 84% hike probability by year-end, and Iran and Oman began formal discussions on a permanent Strait of Hormuz toll system that would structurally