Markets, Meditations, and Mental Models

Brief: Priced Before Signed

The market front-ran a peace deal that hasn't been signed, crashing oil and pushing the dollar below 100, while May wholesale inflation came in hot for the second consecutive day, turning "rate hikes" from tail risk into the base-case debate ahead of next week's FOMC. SpaceX begins trading today, an

Brief: Best Quarter, Worst Print

May's CPI came in at 4.2%, the hottest headline reading since early 2023, but nearly all the acceleration is war-driven energy, with core prices at a tame 2.9% and the Fed caught between a headline it cannot ignore and an economy it does not need to cool. Oracle reported its best quarter after the c

Super Brief: Best Quarter, Worst Print — Super Brief

Best Quarter, Worst Print. May CPI printed 4.2%, the hottest headline since early 2023, and the two markets that read it reached opposite conclusions. Energy did the damage, up 3.9% in May alone and over 60% of the monthly increase, while core sat at 2.9% and shelter posted its softest month since late 2021. Trump named the t

Brief: An Apache and a Yen

Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, ending a one-day-old ceasefire and sending the Nasdaq down 2.2% in its worst session since Friday's jobs-driven selloff. The entire S&P 500 rally since February has come from AI stocks alone, and tomorrow Oracle reports the number that

Super Brief: Thirteen Counts for Finding Bad News — Super Brief

Thirteen Counts for Finding Bad News. A federal jury found Citron's Andrew Left guilty on 13 counts for doing what every activist short shop does: research a company, publish the thesis, and trade around the reaction. Strip away the specifics and the structural point is uncomfortable. Every other participant in public markets is paid to