Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

The name is Bond, US Bond. The canary in the coal mine.

We’ve got a very special guest joining us in this episode. We talk about the financial market mayhem, currencies, and what it all means for Kiwi customers and the economy. Tim Olphert is the head of our financial markets team and has been with Kiwibank for a year. Tim has 25 years of experience in executive leadership in banking and finance.There’s a lot of pain in the economy right now. And interest rate hikes are not what we need given the pressure businesses are facing. Our view is unchanged, and we’ve added a new voice to the chorus. There’s a new Bond story in town. US 10-year bonds going higher are the canary in the coal mine for what’s coming for the US equity market and to the global economy. If the S&P500 takes a turn, Trump may finally chicken out… Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The underbelly: underutilised Kiwis are underpaid and underemployed

How long will the war in the Middle East go on for? Oil price is one thing, supply is what we’re really worried about. But worryingly, the menu has changed. No more TACO, now we have NACHO. Not a chance Hormuz opens. We talk about the labour market data report card. It’s not good. Underutilisation is still high, 13%, but that slack in the labour market puts downward pressure on wages, and therefore inflation. Our view is that there’s sufficient disinflationary pressure in the economy such that the RBNZ has no reason to hike rates any time soon. We’ve been beating this drum for a while, and we stand by it. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Desensitised

The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely now. But we still have to face the prices. We have a wholesale rates market pricing in three rate hikes by October. More hawkish than the most hawkish economists – but calls for rate hikes risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. While we wait, we look at the markets and shake our heads – desensitised feels like an apt description. US equity markets are still taking off. It's like the war isn't even happening. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Consumer says no. 404 error, economic relief not found

Our inflation forecasts are on point, but we aren’t celebrating. CPI numbers out this week tell an uncomfortable story. Inflation at 3.1% is just above the RBNZ’s target band (again), with no big downside surprises to help ease cost pressures. It’s painful to see the cost of essentials make another jump. Kiwi households struggling with the cost-of-living didn’t need food costs (fruits, vegetables and meats especially) to go up in price AGAIN in Q1 of 2026. The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed that despite pressure on prices, Kiwi businesses are struggling. Uncertainty is too high and consumers just aren’t willing (or able) to accept higher prices. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

A fragile ceasefire, a volatile market, and much more

The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has shot up over the years, and we don’t see it reversing, if anything it’s getting worse. Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the guts from inflated fuel prices. We speculate over the length of the conflict and already, we are looking to 2027 for an economic recovery – it feels like this year is a bust. And inflation has us talking about demand destruction, the soft economy and labour market. We have the immediate impact on prices, that causes a spike in inflation, but we don’t think that rate hikes are part of the story for this year. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.