Oils and Fats Podcast

Jun. 9, 2026 - El Niño crop risk, Indonesia's export overhaul, and where Brent goes next

In this Oils & Fats webinar, Maria discusses with Gehrman key market drivers for vegetable oils. They review Brent crude’s drop from mid-May highs (~$108–110) to around $95 amid fragile Middle East ceasefire negotiations and hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, noting conflicting outlooks: EIA projects a gradual decline through 2026–27 due to infrastructure damage, while oil majors warn low inventories could trigger a spike to $165. They explain Indonesia’s new export centralization policy starting June 1, aimed at curbing under-invoicing, with reporting now and potential government takeover of export operations by 2027, raising concerns about disruption and investment. They cover Malaysia palm oil stocks possibly rising in May, lauric (PKO) and coconut oil price weakness amid better coconut supply and Philippines exports, El Niño risks for 2027 and crops (notably Australia canola), rapeseed oil firmness with expectations of harvest-time easing, and sunflower oil supply improving but prices supported by other oils and energy.

May 12, 2026 - Energy markets, Palm kernel supply, and oilseed outlook

In this week's webinar we review key drivers across the oils complex. Brent crude fell from about $114 to $104/bbl, rebounding after the US called Iran’s proposal unacceptable; optimism around a potential US–Iran deal and Strait of Hormuz access keeps prices below highs, and vegetable oils track Brent due to biofuel feedstock demand. Malaysia’s April MPOB palm oil data met expectations: strong production, exports down ~15%, and stocks up ~1.7%, with year-to-date production a multi-year high; Indonesia also started strongly, though agencies warn H2 production risks from high fertilizer costs, El Niño, and land seizures. CBOT soybeans strengthened ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting amid hopes China may commit to buying US soybeans despite cheaper Brazilian supply. Canada’s canola stocks are 28% higher y/y due to weak early exports amid China duties later lifted; Europe faces tighter rapeseed stocks. Sunflower plantings in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe are behind last year, with fertilizer cost concerns, though agencies still expect higher production from larger acreage. In the lauric market, coconut oil prices are easing on improving Philippine output expectations and a backwardated curve, but exports remain low year-to-date; Malaysian palm kernel oil production and PKIO exports are strong, with combined Jan–Apr Malaysia+Indonesia PKIO exports at ~772k vs ~725k last year. Near-term price direction is highly dependent on Middle East developments, with Q2 viewed more bearish for coconut and palm kernel oils and palm oil correction limited unless Brent declines materially, while later-year palm oil has supportive biofuel and supply-risk factors.

Apr. 14, 2026 - Geopolitics and policy updates in Veg oil markets

In this oils and fats webinar, the hosts discuss key market drivers for procurement managers, starting with Middle East conflict developments and their impact on Brent crude, which dropped on ceasefire/Strait of Hormuz news then rebounded after failed talks and U.S. escalation signals; vegetable oil prices followed Brent’s swings, with futures reacting faster than physical benchmarks. They announce U.S. expansion via Sosland price data added to the platform. Biofuel policy updates include Indonesia’s B50 starting July 1 for PSO demand (adding roughly 1.8 million metric tons of palm oil demand) and Malaysia’s intent to move from B10 toward B15 via B12, both supportive for palm oil. The Philippines’ biofuel policy is uncertain, pressuring Manila coconut oil prices, while Thailand raised blending and limited palm oil exports. Malaysian March MPOB data showed sharply lower palm oil stocks (about 15%) on strong exports as demand shifted from Indonesia after an export tax hike; palm kernel oil stocks also fell, supporting prices amid production concerns. For sunflower oil, Argentina’s higher oil and seed exports are offsetting weaker Black Sea supply, and next-season production expectations are higher, adding bearish fundamentals if conflict risks fade.

Mar. 17, 2026 - Middle East conflict risks vs. bearish fundamentals in veg oil markets

This biweekly oils webinar, analysts discuss how day 18 of the Middle East conflict is driving volatility in Brent crude through Strait of Hormuz risks, attacks, and higher shipping, fuel, and insurance costs, filtering into vegetable oils mainly via biofuel economics. Palm oil has surged to multi-year highs, supported by Brent, renewed Indonesia B50 speculation, strong Indonesian exports and stocks data, and increased Malaysian exports as Asian buyers (e.g., India) favor nearby supply amid logistics risks. Soybean oil rose but corrected on fund liquidation and bearish soybean complex sentiment tied to weaker China demand expectations and uncertainty over delayed US biofuel policy finalization; Brazil is considering raising biodiesel mandates (B15 to B16 or B17). Rapeseed and sunflower oil fell on forecasts of much larger 2026 crops, with additional sunflower supply relief from sharply higher Argentine shipments. Lauric oils (coconut/palm kernel) are rising with palm and logistics issues; the Philippines debates biofuel import rules to manage fuel and food prices. Olive oil is least affected, with prices steady amid normalizing Spanish output and adequate stocks elsewhere.

Feb. 17, 2026 - Production trends, policy shifts, and price outlooks.

In the first OS oils webinar of the new year, the hosts recap new Vesper platform features including dashboard sharing, “bring your own data,” and a Commodity Copilot that answers market and platform questions using only Vesper data and provides cited sources. The market discussion covers palm oil, noting recent price declines tied to Chinese New Year demand and weak Malaysian exports, with stocks falling but Q1 spikes limited by expected good supply; POC consensus suggests Malaysian production down 0.3–0.5 MMT and mixed views on Indonesia, where land seizures may reduce output later in 2026, while B50 test results and future biofuel speculation could support prices in Q3–Q4. In laurics, coconut oil prices fell on recovery expectations, while palm kernel oil stayed flat with modest production declines offset by coconut recovery. Soybean oil futures rose on anticipated US biodiesel policy finalization and possible stronger demand from India, with outlook dependent on policy details. Rapeseed oil supply looks comfortable in Europe due to strong crush/imports and ample stocks, pressuring prices. Sunflower oil eased; despite drone damage to Russian facilities and record-low exports, possible stock buildup and a better Argentine crop could weigh on Q2, with seasonal tightness affecting Q3–Q4.