Zephyr's Adjusted for Risk

Rethinking Bonds: Bonds Carry More Risk Than Stocks in Next 2 - 3 Years

41 min · 20 de may de 2026
Portada del episodio Rethinking Bonds: Bonds Carry More Risk Than Stocks in Next 2 - 3 Years

Descripción

Ryan Nauman hosts Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk Podcast with guest Edison Byzyka, Chief Investment Officer of Credent Wealth Management, a $4.5B fee-only RIA headquartered in northeast Indiana. They discuss today’s macro uncertainty (Iran conflict, oil, inflation) while emphasizing skepticism and reliance on data such as economic surprise indices, forward inflation expectations, labor resilience, and high-yield spreads that don’t signal major distress. Byzyka explains how Credent defines risk primarily as drawdowns rather than benchmark-relative volatility, aiming for positive risk-adjusted returns over three-year cycles including tax and accounting alpha. He highlights key current risks: difficulty monetizing AI-related capex and lofty forward earnings expectations in mega-cap AI names, which may pressure market-cap-weighted indices and favor equal weight. They cover valuation implications for five-year returns, question fixed income’s stabilizing role, and describe using structured notes and selective constituent selection to mitigate downside while maintaining upside participation, concluding that active management and partial illiquidity may become more important in portfolio construction. Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/asset-allocation/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about Credent Wealth Management here [https://credentwealth.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast 01:13 Meet Edison Byzyka 01:32 Credent Wealth Overview 03:51 Big Ten Sports Banter 06:03 Macro Uncertainty Check 10:40 Markets vs the Headlines 11:46 Defining Investment Risk 16:05 Biggest Risks Right Now 19:08 AI Capex and ROI Questions 20:20 AI Risks And Rotation 21:14 Advisor Focus And Flows 23:21 Mitigating With Selection 25:12 Structured Notes Surge 29:21 Valuations And Equal Weight 32:21 Rethinking Fixed Income 35:36 Bond Alternatives With Notes 37:37 Portfolio Construction Outlook 39:24 Closing And Resources Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [about:blank] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

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26 episodios

Portada del episodio Is it Time to Stop Overlooking Municipal Bonds?

Is it Time to Stop Overlooking Municipal Bonds?

From Lake Tahoe, Zephyr’s Adjusted Risk Podcast welcomes Eric Kazatsky, Client Portfolio Manager at MacKay Municipal Managers, an $85–$86B specialist in tax-exempt and taxable municipal strategies across ETFs, mutual funds, interval funds, and limited partnerships. The conversation covers today’s macro uncertainty—sticky inflation, rate direction, yield-curve shape, geopolitics—and why munis can help portfolios through low correlation, diversification, and tax-equivalent income potential. Kazatsky discusses a defensive posture using higher coupons, where MacKay sees relative value on the muni curve (about 17–22 years), how munis follow Treasuries directionally while facing distinct domestic fundamentals, and why taxable munis exist and can offer attractive spread and institutional-grade issuers. He also explains active vs. passive considerations in a market with many issuers and index gaps, and shares where to find MacKay’s research and updates online. Learn how Zephyr can help you show the impact Municipal Bonds have on investment portfolios. Learn more about Zephyr here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about MacKay Municipal Managers here [https://www.nylim.com/mackay-shields ]. 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast 01:19 Meet Eric and MacKay 02:48 Munis in Real Life 03:30 Interval Funds Explained 04:32 Macro Backdrop and Rates 07:05 Best Spots on the Curve 08:15 Geopolitics and Muni Resilience 11:40 Taxable vs Tax Free Munis 13:45 Why Munis Get Overlooked 16:40 Interest Rate Volatility and Liquidity 18:25 Active vs Passive in Munis 21:36 How Advisors Should Use Munis 22:57 Where to Learn More 23:49 Final Thanks and Sign Off Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryannauman1/ ] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

Ayer24 min
Portada del episodio Mastering Energy Market Trends for Portfolio Growth

Mastering Energy Market Trends for Portfolio Growth

Recorded on location at the Exchange ETF Conference, Zephyr market strategist Ryan Nauman speaks with Mark Marifian, Head of Product at Tortoise Capital, about why energy belongs in portfolios and common misconceptions that it’s only about crude prices or big integrated oil companies. Marifian explains the breadth of energy sub-sectors, highlights midstream’s fee-based, repeatable cash flows, and discusses how energy infrastructure can provide income and inflation protection through contract and tariff adjustments linked to PPI. They cover how allocators may bucket energy within income, real assets, or core/satellite equity exposures, and why energy’s small S&P 500 weight may create opportunity. Marifian also outlines MLPs’ role, introduces Tortoise’s TMLP ETF, and discusses data-center/AI-driven demand, energy security, and an oil “sweet spot” range of $60–$90. Learn more about Zephyr here [https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbWpZSHoyNmcwamdGaU9kR3FvU1BGR2V2OVRXZ3xBQ3Jtc0tsZUFIMElGUWQtZEo2MUxoX0Q5YThydkhPTGl3blBPNmJXSGxLWHdPNURwZ0E3akZFcWxydnp5dTlLTnVmcEVYRkxXcFBTWmVReDJBN2tqTWZjOUtaS0Y0N1V3c2Eyb1hVVnREQ2ZrUDBOajk3SzhVUQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Finformaconnect.com%2Fzephyr%2F%3Futm_medium%3DContent%26utm_source%3DContent_Podcast%26utm_campaign%3DYT_Adjusted_for_Risk_%26utm_content%3DYT_Adjusted_for_Risk&v=sbHtUZWBvIQ]. Learn more about Tortoise Capital here [https://tortoisecapital.com/]. 00:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ] Welcome and Disclosures 00:41 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=41s] Energy in the Spotlight 01:28 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=88s] Meet Mark Marifian 02:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=170s] Why Energy Belongs in Portfolios 05:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=313s] Misconceptions and Energy Subsectors 07:11 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=431s] Energy’s Small S&P Weight 08:23 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=503s] Where Energy Fits in Allocation 10:21 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=621s] MLPs Explained and Income Potential 11:26 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=686s] How to Access MLPs with TMLP 12:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=770s] Future Demand from AI and Security 15:12 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=912s] Oil at $100 and the Forward Curve 17:17 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=1037s] The Sweet Spot for Oil Prices 18:32 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbHtUZWBvIQ&t=1112s] Wrap Up and Where to Learn More

29 de may de 202620 min
Portada del episodio Why Beating the Market Is Hard and How Advisors Add Value

Why Beating the Market Is Hard and How Advisors Add Value

Ryan Nauman hosts Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk podcast with Mike Willis, CEO and co-founder of Cyber Hornet ETFs, discussing why consistently beating the market is difficult and how advisors can add value through asset allocation, discipline, and client coaching. Willis shares his background from wirehouses to launching an RIA and creating investment products to make his strategies accessible to smaller investors, including why he shifted to using the S&P 500 as a portfolio backbone after underperforming in 2013–2014. He explains Cyber Hornet’s 75/25 approach—75% S&P 500 with a 25% crypto “kicker” (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, or XRP) rebalanced monthly—to buffer volatility while gaining crypto exposure, and discusses crypto “winter,” technical patterns, scarcity fundamentals, regulatory clarity, and the still-low adoption of crypto by financial advisors. Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/asset-allocation/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about Cyber Hornet ETFs here [https://www.cyberhornets.com/ ]. 00:00 Podcast Kickoff 01:30 Meet Mike Willis 02:26 Advisor Value Beyond Alpha 03:55 Why Build a Fund Platform 05:33 From Active to Index Core 06:33 Adding a Crypto Kicker 08:51 The Index Ticker Story 14:09 Why Crypto Beats Options 15:26 Bitcoin Adoption Waves 18:38 Crypto Winter Explained 24:08 What Ends the Downturn 27:23 Advisor Adoption Outlook 29:32 Wrap Up and Resources Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryannauman1/ ] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

26 de may de 202630 min
Portada del episodio Why 2026 Is A "Prove It" Year for Many AI Stocks

Why 2026 Is A "Prove It" Year for Many AI Stocks

Recorded at the Exchange ETF Conference in Las Vegas, host Ryan Nauman welcomes Sal Esposito, Head of ETFs at Zacks Investment Management, to discuss why market leadership driven by mega-cap tech and AI is shifting back toward fundamentals. Esposito explains Zacks’ disciplined process focused on earnings, analyst estimate revisions, and balance sheets, calling 2026 a “prove it” year for AI as investors look under the hood for real results. They cover how Zacks applies its Zacks Indicator model across products, why active management can add value in small/mid caps and international equities, and how geopolitical uncertainty and interest-rate expectations can affect market breadth and international performance. Esposito also shares updates on Zacks’ growing ETF lineup, including international exposure. Zephyr can help financial advisors locate the best ETF strategies for their clients. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/manager-screening/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about Zacks Investment Management here [https://www.zacksim.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome and Disclosures 00:38 Live From ETF Conference 01:37 Meet Sal Esposito 02:04 Zacks ETF Growth Story 03:05 AI Hype vs Fundamentals 04:30 Prove It Year for AI 08:05 Earnings Driven Process 10:42 International ETF Expansion 12:21 Small Mid Cap Active Edge 16:08 International Outlook 2026 19:37 Active Defense in Downturns 20:30 Where to Learn More 20:46 Closing and Subscribe Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryannauman1/ ] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

22 de may de 202621 min
Portada del episodio Rethinking Bonds: Bonds Carry More Risk Than Stocks in Next 2 - 3 Years

Rethinking Bonds: Bonds Carry More Risk Than Stocks in Next 2 - 3 Years

Ryan Nauman hosts Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk Podcast with guest Edison Byzyka, Chief Investment Officer of Credent Wealth Management, a $4.5B fee-only RIA headquartered in northeast Indiana. They discuss today’s macro uncertainty (Iran conflict, oil, inflation) while emphasizing skepticism and reliance on data such as economic surprise indices, forward inflation expectations, labor resilience, and high-yield spreads that don’t signal major distress. Byzyka explains how Credent defines risk primarily as drawdowns rather than benchmark-relative volatility, aiming for positive risk-adjusted returns over three-year cycles including tax and accounting alpha. He highlights key current risks: difficulty monetizing AI-related capex and lofty forward earnings expectations in mega-cap AI names, which may pressure market-cap-weighted indices and favor equal weight. They cover valuation implications for five-year returns, question fixed income’s stabilizing role, and describe using structured notes and selective constituent selection to mitigate downside while maintaining upside participation, concluding that active management and partial illiquidity may become more important in portfolio construction. Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/asset-allocation/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about Credent Wealth Management here [https://credentwealth.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast 01:13 Meet Edison Byzyka 01:32 Credent Wealth Overview 03:51 Big Ten Sports Banter 06:03 Macro Uncertainty Check 10:40 Markets vs the Headlines 11:46 Defining Investment Risk 16:05 Biggest Risks Right Now 19:08 AI Capex and ROI Questions 20:20 AI Risks And Rotation 21:14 Advisor Focus And Flows 23:21 Mitigating With Selection 25:12 Structured Notes Surge 29:21 Valuations And Equal Weight 32:21 Rethinking Fixed Income 35:36 Bond Alternatives With Notes 37:37 Portfolio Construction Outlook 39:24 Closing And Resources Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [about:blank] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

20 de may de 202641 min