AI - Who Should We Listen To? The Pope or the AI Owners?

Boom before the Reality Sinks In

“Sometimes I’ve believed six impossible things before breakfast” Stock Markets partied higher yesterday, utterly unbothered by the optics of the Iran Deal. Bond markets look at the long-term risks – wondering what the consequences of the Iran war might trigger in the coming years when today’s new bonds are set to repay. Traders will be trying to figure out what a new world will look like, and just how sustainable US Bonds markets might be as the global economy shifts. I think I have used the classic Alice in Wonderland (actually, it’s from Through the Looking Glass) quote more times than any other over the nearly 20 years I’ve been writing the Porridge. It feels kind of apt this morning. Yesterday Global Stock markets hit record levels, rallying on the back of the Iran deal. However, we all know (even though many aren’t prepared to accept it as the actuality) that the deal represents a definitional defeat of the USA by Global Terrorist Central - Iran. Don’t take my word for it – read the editorial in the New York Times: President Trump Lost This War [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/opinion/-trump-lost-war-iran.html]. Iran won an asymmetric war versus the strongest Military Nation on Earth – knowing Trump would not put the boots on the ground that would be needed to win it. There are lots of lessons the Chinese, Russians and NATO will be absorbing. Resilience is the new watchword. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

AI Shut-downs, and the Iran Peace Deal – what does it all mean?

“Tonight, there’s going to be a jailbreak… don’t you be around…” There were a number of “Moments” over the Weekend. A Peace Deal in the Gulf was inevitable – but we will see energy supply chains slowly normalise and lower inflationary expectations. Equally important is the US Government switching off Anthropic’s most powerful AI models. Collectively, these two events could have enormous consequences in terms of global power and hegemony. Cage Fighting on the White House lawn seems the perfect metaphor for our times. Scotland beating Haiti at 4 am on Sunday morning at the World Cup was probably less significant, but very, very satisfying. That was a busy weekend. The peace deal between the USA and Iran is a fascinating lesson of the consequences of unconstrained power. The fact the US Government effectively turned off Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models was a pivotal event – and could impact the coming AI IPOs, the global adoption of US AI models, the future path of AI, and the ongoing exceptionalism of the US Tech Sector. Let’s start with AI. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Let the Games Begin – Love the World Cup

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 12th, 2026 – Let the Games Begin – Love the World Cup “And we’ll really shake em up when we win the World Cup!” What’s not to like about the World Cup? Forget the noise, forget the rancour – and celebrate the greatest festival of visceral tribal sport on the planet. Life is not about the money in your wallet, or the price of your stocks – but the laughs you laugh, the sighs you sigh when the penalty is missed, the cheers that cheer when the goal is scored, and the memories in the treasury of your heart! Let the Games begin! How will it go? Even though I am not the world’s most dedicated Football fan, I have greatly enjoyed the World Cup. Not so much the Footie which can be a tad boring to my mind – but the whole atmosphere around the beautiful game. Give me any pub in London when England is playing… and there is nothing quite like it. I will blare out Sweet Caroline with the worst of them! When I first started thinking about penning a Morning Porridge about the World Cup, my first thoughts were to write a tirade about Trump playing Bread and Circuses – anything to distract American Voters for the mire of the Iran war, inflation rising 75% (2.8% to 4.2%) since the start of the war, and the ongoing whiff of something rotten around connections to Epstein. (There is a superb article in the NYT this week: Inside the White House Freakout Over the Epstein Files [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/magazine/trump-epstein-files-white-house-vance-doj.html].) It is juicy, oh so juicy – but do not let it distract you from the Footie. But, watching the lead up to the opening game last night… No. It was just too good. I will not do a hatchet job on the World Cup. Infantino and Trump will get what they deserve. What the World deserves is a fantastic celebration of Football and everything that goes with it. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

UPDATE – UK DEFENCE MINISTER RESIGNS

Blain’s EXTRA Porridge June 11th, 2026 – UPDATE – UK DEFENCE MINISTER RESIGNS “Et tu Brute?” … “Yet Brutus is an honourable man.” UK Defence Minister John Healey’s resignation over the dearth of defence funding this morning will throw UK defence into turmoil, and further undermine the flolloping Starmer Government. Gilts spiked higher on the news. Link to Podcast This Morning Porridge Extra continues the theme of the missing UK Defence Investment Plan discussed in this morning’s comment – UK Defence Investment Plan Delayed Again. [https://morningporridge.com/blog/conflict/uk-defence-investment-plan-delayed-again/] You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

UK Defence Investment Plan delayed again!

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 11th, 2026 – UK Defence Investment Plan delayed again! “To avoid war – be prepared to fight.” The UK’s Defence Investment Plan has been delayed yet again, mired in cabinet warfare on spending. The DIP will focus on big projects like a new fighter-jet but will make a nod to the lessons learnt in Ukraine. The big issue is how the defence industry will evolve away from Defence Primes towards financing the start-ups that can change the battlespace with new tech that is adaptable, available now, cheap and good-enough.  There was a defence conference and exhibition a few weeks ago in Kiev. My colleagues from Spitfire Strategic Capital  [http://www.spitfirestrategiccapital.com/]were there. A retired British 4-star general, and former Deputy Supreme Commander of Nato, (who is on our advisory board), looked around the exhibition of Ukraine weaponry and quietly commented, “for 1/10th of the budget I could build the army of tomorrow, instead of spending it all on the army of yesterday.” There is a blunt reality to war: When deterrence stops working you are either the aggressor or hope the enemy won’t attack until you are ready. As we all know – hope is never a strategy. Today the defence of the UK is hiding behind hope. Our armed forces are willing and brave, but unprepared, undermanned and poorly-equipped for modern war – which will be fought in a battlespace that has been constantly evolving since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In a world of rapidly shifting Geopolitics, instability, threats and the de-facto collapse of the Transatlantic Relationship, defence should be the Nation’s number one priority. Yet the government dithers. Today we were expecting the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan to be published – detailing how the Government will spend money to re-establish the UK’s strategic deterrence.