Why a Stanford PhD Doesn't Bet His Model Alone

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Dr. Ed Feng founded The Power Rank.com in 2008 after reading Google's PageRank paper and applying the same math to sports rankings. His public NFL spread predictions have hit 51.8% against the closing market over the last four seasons (396-369-21), and his college football model writes for Yahoo Sports. But here's the thing that surprised me most in this conversation: even with a Stanford PhD and a rigorous bottom-up model, Ed doesn't bet his numbers alone. The actual handicap is at the team-by-team level, still subjective, still leaning on context the model can't see. In this episode of Before You Bet, we get into why that's the case — what role the subjective layer is actually playing for him, where the limits of a quantitative model show up in college football specifically, how he thinks about wisdom of crowds in ratings sources, the bottom-up versus top-down framing Spanky coined on his podcast, prediction markets as a tool, and what 15+ years of doing rigorous analytical work in a domain most academic institutions dismiss has actually taught him about edge.Follow Ed Feng: @thepowerrank Follow the show: @CFB900

2026 Pac-12 Betting Preview: Boise State CFP Path, Fresno State Upside + Best Bets

Who wins the new-look Pac-12 in 2026—and can Boise State claim the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff spot? In this CFB900 Pac-12 preview, we break down the league’s leading contenders, evaluate Texas State as a volatile dark horse, examine the conference’s major coaching changes, and reveal our favorite regular-season win total bets. Boise State remains the class of the Group of Five behind quarterback Maddux Madsen, one of the best running back duos in the country, and another strong defensive front. The Broncos open at Oregon in a low-risk, high-upside opportunity and also face Memphis and Western Michigan, giving them valuable head-to-head data points against contenders from other Group of Five conferences. Fresno State may be Boise State’s most credible challenger. The Bulldogs return excellent backfield talent, continuity at wide receiver, and three starters along the offensive line. Their ceiling will depend on whether Maryland transfer Khristian Martin or Jayden Mandal can stabilize the quarterback position. San Diego State returns star running back Lucky Sutton, but significant defensive turnover and continued limitations in the passing game create legitimate concerns about the Aztecs’ ability to contend. Our Pac-12 dark horse is Texas State. Sophomore quarterback Brad Jackson is one of the league’s most explosive players after producing nearly 4,000 total yards as a true freshman. The Bobcats also return two 1,000-yard receivers, but major questions remain along the offensive line, at running back, and throughout a completely rebuilt defense. We also discuss: • Why Boise State may be a better CFP bet after its opener at Oregon • Fresno State’s path to the Pac-12 Championship Game • San Diego State’s offensive ceiling with Jayden Denegal • Texas State’s repeated struggles as a heavy favorite • Kirby Moore’s difficult first season at Washington State • Utah State’s brutal September schedule • Why Jim Mora can elevate Colorado State • The continued rebuilding challenge facing Oregon State Best Bets: Texas State Under 6.5 Wins — FanDuel +108 Texas State Under 6.5 Wins — DraftKings -166 Tracked as a half-unit at each sportsbook San Diego State Under 7.5 Wins — MGM -128 Oregon State Under 4.5 Wins — FanDuel -115 Subscribe to CFB900 for concise college football betting previews, power-rating analysis, conference futures, win totals, and market-driven breakdowns covering every FBS league.

13. Juli 202614 min

Why a Stanford PhD Doesn't Bet His Model Alone - Ed Feng

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