StockCharts' de Kempenaer; Don't jump in front of this 'freight train' of a market

Mark Hamrick: The hallmarks of a recession aren't here ... yet

Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at The Hamrick Brief [https://thehamrickbrief.substack.com], says that the current affordability crisis has the potential to trigger a recession, if it gets to where there's a slowdown in spending that spills over to impact employment levels. That said, Hamrick says current conditions aren't yet deserving of the label of "economic crisis," even if it feels that way for some individuals and households, effectively the bottom portion of the k-shaped recovery. Still, Hamrick says the remarkable facet of the U.S. economy is that it has been able to avoid recession for this long. Vijay Marolia [https://vijaymarolia.com], chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital [https://regalpointcapital.com], says "Mr. Market is a manic depressive," and is showing those tendencies by getting so excited by positive guidance and potential that the reaction to strong earnings reports has been horrible stock action. He expects that to potentially continue this week, when the focus of earnings season shifts to A.I.-driven companies like Alphabet, Intel and Tesla. Marolia says the market's earnings swings have contributed to an ongoing downturn for tech stocks, though he believes it's more of a buying opportunity than the start of a correction. Plus, with June's inflation reading being partly positive (better than May) mixed with negative (worse than when conflict started with Iran), "Captain Inflation" gives his take on how to best read and cope with the numbers. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs [https://newconstructs.com], says that while fans may believe Jersey Mike's is "a sub above," the company's initial public offering is a deal from below. While the IPO's launch date hasn't been determined, Trainer says the expected $12 billion valuation is at least double what he thinks the numbers justify, and that the deal — particularly at that level — mostly benefits the private-equity firm that took control of Jersey Mike's in 2025.

Annex Wealth's Jacobsen: Economic expansion will drive growth at least into '27

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist for Annex Wealth Management [https://annexwealth.com], says there are signs of a broad-based economic expansion, which gives him a "fairly constructive outlook for the economy over the next six to 12 months," though he is concerned about policy shocks that could unsettle things. Jacobsen warns that investors should not be too excited about situations where the general feeling is "It could have been worse," such as recent inflation numbers or the impact of the war in Iran, but they should take some positivity from the Federal Reserve and its new chairman Kevin Warsh, who Jacobsen says doesn't really want "to pump the brakes on this economy" any time soon. Scott Brown, chief strategist at Brown Technical Insights [https://browninsights.com], says that the stock market just lived through the best second quarter ever for a midterm election year, which is a bullish sign for the rest of the year and getting through the standard troubles that come in midterm years. Brown says there is upside potential "but you want to be careful about where you are looking for it," warning that semiconductor names are correcting and that there is more downside risk there. Instead, he is looking at industrials, health care and financials as areas with positive potential. In The NAVigator, Ray DiBernardo, portfolio manager for the XAI Madison Equity Premium Income [https://xainvestments.com/mcn/] fund, says the stock market's high valuation levels have increased downside risk, making it that nervous investors should consider covered-call strategies, which trade some of the market's potential upside for downside protection. For nervous investors, DiBernardo says the options strategy acts like portfolio insurance, but that it is particularly attractive in the closed-end fund wrapper where covered-call funds generally are at a discount with the market near highs; that discount helps to make up for the upside potential investors surrender when choosing the strategy. In the Market Call, Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund [https://frankfunds.com], talks about absolute-value investing, noting that "nothing in the tech sector really is cheap" on an absolute basis, which has him looking more towards consumer staples and other areas that he says are trading at a discount. he also discusses the important of not just buying stocks on the cheap but having a potential catalyst to unlock that value.

CFRA's Stovall: Rising volatility creates buying opportunities with a year-end payoff

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research [https://cfraresearch.com] says investors should "be prepared for some additional volatility" at least until and through the midterm elections, but he thinks it represents "a reason to buy, not to bail." Stovall says that he's looking for solid double-digit earnings growth into 2027, and he makes the case that the technology sector has been driving the market higher but remains trading at a relative discount in price/earnings ratio. Traditional summer market doldrums, therefore, set up chances to profit from a rally he expects once the voting is done. Further, he points to the market's expanded breadth which, when combined with a positive first half of the year, historically is a sign that the market will rise over the rest of the year. Stovall's big worry for the economy and market involves the Federal Reserve and the potential for higher rates to lead to stagflation and other condition changes, but he's not expecting the Fed to move rates this year, so he thinks those worries are further into the future. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi [https://vettafi.com], has focused a lot of his recent ETF of the Week picks on actively managed funds, but today he goes with a hot fund based on a technology-heavy index as something that would work well for investors who expect the market's uptrend to continue. In the Market Call, Manny Weintraub, principal at Cannell & Spears [https://cannellspears.com], talks about how he finds "super great stocks that are not going to kill you" and whether stocks in the hottest sectors are being set up to murder investors when market conditions and sentiments change.

Freedom Capital's Woods: Block out the noise, be patient during earnings season

Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets [https://freedomcapmkts.com], says that the market has a "Janet Jackson - What Have You Done for Me Lately" attitude, which has made earnings cycles particularly volatile, and he thinks that will be amplified with the earnings on tap right now powering market moves, especially around market misses. While he believes earnings will be strong, he warns in the Market Call that "prices may not follow them," particularly as the market enters its slowest time of the year around a mid-term election cycle. Woods says that the stock market has seen a healthy rotation, but he expects a pullback before a year-end rally; in the meantime, he warns against chasing rallies. Adam Mead of Mead Capital Management [https://meadcm.com] and Watchlist Investing [https://watchlistinvesting.com] — author of "The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway" — talks about the evolution of legendary investors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, how the company they ran is changing with Buffett's retirement and the legacy they will; have in the decades ahead. The new edition of the book was inspired after Mead saw Buffett at Berkshire's annual meeting after the nonagenarian announced his retirement. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about hiring a financial adviser and whether working with the brand-name firm that has renewed its nationwide advertising blitz on television would be all that it's cracked up to be. (Spoiler alert: Not exactly.)

TheoTrade's Bierman: 'Get ready for a spectacular year-end rally'

Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician at TheoTrade [https://TheoTrade.com] — where he runs the Genesis Cog and Burn Signal platforms [https://theotrade.com/jeff-bierman-services/] — says the stock market remains "ridiculously strong," but that won't allow it to sidestep a summer slowdown and a difficult fall, before picking back up with a tremendous rally near the end of the year. He makes it clear that current conditions are not looking like a bear market or a bubble, and while the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself, he's thinking it's mostly choppy with maybe a small setback before it starts the next leg up. David Leiter, who runs The Ultimate Investor [https://theultimateinvestor.com] website, discusses his new book, "Stop Making Stupid Investments [https://theultimateinvestor.com/stop-making-stupid-investments]," and gives his take on everything from initial public offerings — and pre-IPO investments — to cryptocurrency and more, and focuses on the emotional control that helps investors avoid the key blunders that can bring a portfolio crashing down. In the Market Call, Max Wasserman, co-founder and senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital [https://Miramarcap.com], talks about how everyone is jumping so hard into technology stocks that it's "hard to find a great company at a good price." He discusses where he is finding the right valuations for his dividend-driven investment style, and what kinds of companies fit his long-term buying perspective now.