Snowflake Sparks a Software Rally and What I Learned from Dan Loeb This Week

Own What the Chips Produce, Not Where They Reside: Jim Chanos on the AI Trade

Jim Chanos was on the Monetary Matters podcast this weekend. He is net long AI through the index and short what he calls the financialized middle layer, the NeoCloud plays like CoreWeave that he views as equipment leasing finance companies with mid single digit returns on capital. Own what the chips produce, not where they reside. I also cover Jordi Visser's take on the CapEx air pocket he thinks is coming, why Chinese open source AI models are within six months of the frontier without top end Nvidia chips, and what that means for the LLM commoditization story. Micron also reports this week and is hitting all time highs going into the print. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #JimChanos #JordiVisser #AIstocks #Semiconductors #Micron #CoreWeave #NeoCloud #OpenSourceAI #China #DeepSeek #Nvidia #NVDA #Broadcom #AVGO #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital$QQQ $NVDA $AVGO $LRCX $PLTR $MU

Kevin Warsh Said a Whole Lot of Nothing: Markets Have Knee-Jerk Reaction

Note: My screen was not sharing during today's recording. Apologies to everyone watching on YouTube. Kevin Warsh held his first press conference as Federal Reserve Chair and said a whole lot of nothing. Yes, he used some hawkish language around price stability, yes the dot plot leaned hawkish, and yes he mentioned task forces looking into the inflation target and the federal balance sheet. But task forces are a stalling tactic. Anytime a new Fed chair creates a committee to study something, that means he is buying time. The market sold off hard and then recovered overnight, which is exactly what you would expect from a knee-jerk reaction to a new Fed chair saying words. I also cover the AI job cut wave quietly happening in the background, why Broadcom and Lam Research are hitting new highs again like Tuesday never happened, Lloyd Blankfein day trading on his iPad like an 18-year-old, and Becky Quick's quietly impressive investing philosophy of being 100% in stocks with no bonds. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #BeckeyQuick #LloydBlankfein #Broadcom #AVGO #LamResearch #LRCX #Micron #MU #AIjobs #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $AVGO $LRCX $MU $QQQ $AAPL

Watching SpaceX from the QQQ Sidelines

SpaceX options are open to trade for the first time today and retail is going crazy. I am watching from the sidelines and I am completely comfortable with that. The QQQ will own SpaceX for me at market cap weight without me having to chase it at any price. I also cover the Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas on the 20VC podcast and his take on why frontier AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI are being commoditized, why the real money is in AI agents that take over your computer and do the work, and why that makes Palantir's moat more interesting than ever. I also share my latest portfolio update on Substack, why I made the Nasdaq 100 my largest holding for the first time, and why I am not confused about Palantir's valuation even though I am very confused about SpaceX's. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #SpaceX #Palantir #PLTR #Perplexity #Anthropic #OpenAI #AIstocks #Nvidia #NVDA #Broadcom #AVGO #Micron #MU #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $QQQ $PLTR $NVDA $AVGO $MU $AAPL $AMZN

Cleaning Up My Portfolio: Why QQQ is Now Bigger Than Nvidia

I added a significant chunk to my Invesco QQQ position during last Tuesday's flush down at $687 a share, and the Nasdaq 100 is now my largest holding for the first time, ahead of Nvidia. I walk through why I think this is the right move at age 42, why I want QQQ to eventually be 50% of my portfolio, and how my allocation philosophy will likely shift again as I get into my 50s. I also cover my other post on why "set it and forget it" is the wrong way to think about the SpaceX IPO, and why that framing skips the actual work of value investing. Plus some thoughts on the broader market this morning, Kevin Warsh, and the Anthropic Claude export control news from over the weekend. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Nvidia #NVDA #SpaceX #IPO #PortfolioUpdate #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #Anthropic #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $QQQ $NVDA $AMZN $AAPL $META

How Long Term Investors Create Their Own Luck Like Brunson and the Knicks

The Knicks pulled off the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history last night, down 29 points, and I could not help but draw the parallel to long term investing. Staying in the game is the whole ball game. You do not know which dip precedes the run, the same way the Knicks did not know the third quarter was the one where San Antonio went cold. You just keep taking good shots and let the distribution do its work. I also follow up on yesterday's controversial post about why buying the dip always works and respond to some pushback I got on Substack. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #BuyTheDip #JalenBrunson #Knicks #NBAFinals #Oracle #ORCL #BehavioralFinance #Nvidia #NVDA #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $QQQ $ORCL $NVDA $AVGO $SMH