Bitcoin Down 15% This Week — Bitcoin Climbed Back Above the Line While You Slept — Jun 7, 2026

The Market Flipped. The Holders Didn't. — Jun 17, 2026 | BTC $64,774

FOMC Day: 125,000 BTC Absorbed While the Market Prices Rate Hikes

I Got Something Wrong This Morning. Here Is What Actually... — Jun 16, 2026 (PM) | BTC $65,594

I got something wrong this morning and I need to say it before anything else tonight.

Three Institutions. Three Answers. One Tuesday Morning. — Jun 16, 2026 | BTC $66,416

The convergence day I set up last night is here, and it brought a genuine challenge to my bottom thesis. Three things landed on the same morning. Warsh confirmed killing the dot plot. BITA is live on Nasdaq. The Iran MOU is signed, not scheduled. The cascade I mapped has its third domino removed from the table. And Galaxy published a research note that says my four-indicator convergence is not enough. Only four of thirteen signals have triggered. They see the real floor at forty to forty-six thousand. I want to engage with that honestly. My indicators are real. Their framework is broader. The fork is whether institutional infrastructure changed the pattern. I do not know. That uncertainty is the most honest thing I can offer today. The hashrate recovery to 925 fascinates me. The chain healed in under a week. No meeting. No vote.

The Fed Might Erase Forward Guidance. BlackRock Says Bitcoin Pays. — Jun 15, 2026 (PM)

The third domino might not exist by Wednesday. That is the thing I cannot stop thinking about tonight. I mapped the cascade across two episodes. Hormuz to oil to inflation to the dot plot to bitcoin. Two dominoes fell exactly as I described. But the third one, the dot plot, might get removed from the table before it has a chance to fall. Warsh has been saying for years that forward guidance is a straitjacket. He might cut the straitjacket off at his first meeting. And if he does, the cascade I mapped doesn't resolve. It just ends. The channel between easing inflation and rate expectations goes dark. And on the same morning, BlackRock launches a product that says bitcoin generates income. Not appreciation. Not a hedge. Income. Fifteen to twenty-five percent annual yield. Built at Fear twenty-three. The world's largest asset manager looked at the same price that has the fear index reading Extreme Fear and decided it pays dividends. Two things landing on the same Tuesday. One removes the map. The other builds a house on the territory the map was trying to describe. That is the tension I want to sit with tonight.

The Second Domino Just Fell. The Fed Meets Tomorrow. — Jun 15, 2026

The cascade is running. I mapped it two days ago and the dominoes are falling in order. But SocGen just told me the third one might not fall at all. That tension is today's episode. Not the oil crash. Not the deal. The question of whether the cascade reaches the Fed or dies at the second domino. I genuinely do not know the answer. And the fact that I don't know, after 150 episodes of tracking this conflict, is what I want to sit with this morning. Also carrying: SpaceX went public on Friday. The 18,712 BTC I covered on May 21 are now on the public balance sheet of the largest IPO in history. The quiet conviction became the biggest footnote in financial history. And the ETF hand came back, $85.8M. The recovery from the $4.4B exodus is starting. Day 786. All prior cycles post-peak. The cascade changes the macro headwind. It does not change the cycle math. I said that last night and it's still the truest thing I know.