Franklin Templeton's Dover: This market's not 'expensive,' just 'fully valued'

Franklin Templeton's Dover: This market's not 'expensive,' just 'fully valued'

Steven Dover [https://franklintempleton.com/profiles/stephen-dover], chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton [https://franklintempleton.com], says there is still more upside to the market, based on earnings growth, noting that the economy and stock market have been resilient due to the "phenomenal" profits companies have been generating. Dover notes that the market is fully valued, but not expensive; "We think earnings this next year could be [up] 15 to 20 percent, so the market could follow that without being more expensive." Dover, who is also the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, notes that the earnings growth has been greatest among small caps, which is why he is leaning in that direction, and he advocates for fixed income as ballast for portfolios now; ;he had previously lightened up on the Magnificent Seven and other market leaders, and he says that the market has relaxed on those stocks, which may create targeted buying opportunities. Kevin Dreyer, co-chief investment officer for value at Gabelli Asset Management [https://Gabelli.com] — part of the team running Gabelli Equity Trust [https://gabelli.com/ticker/gab/] and other closed-end funds — discusses how he is finding value looking for names that are "differentiated and not highly correlated" to the stocks that have been leading the market's return to record levels. Specifically, Dreyer says he is looking for businesses that are "A.I. resilient" and able to withstand and/or benefit from the development of artificial intelligence. One area he cited as particularly attractive is sports and entertainment, because " You can't have an algorithm or chatbot replicate the New York Knicks … but you and I can go out and buy MSGS, which owns the Knicks." Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi [https://vettafi.com], turns to a trending part of the market and makes an actively managed Fidelity small- and mid-cap fund his pick for "ETF of the Week."

Argent Trust's Stringfellow: Market is rounding out, not signalling big trouble ahead

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust [https://argentfinancial.com], says the stock market is going through a shift where small-cap companies are coming to the fore, businesses that are adjacent to artificial intelligence or that will benefit from using it are starting to get an A.I. boost and the warning signs feel mostly like distant storm clouds. Stringfellow says he doesn't see signs of recession, worries slightly about a market overheating if interest rates rise, but he thinks signs that more and more companies are showing earnings growth reducing a lot of potential downward pressure on the market. Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management [https://ritholtzwealth.com], discusses his new book, "Risk and Reward: How to handle market volatility and build long-term wealth [https://awealthofcommonsense.com]," and how he thinks investors can't simply tune everything out -- even if that might be the best long-term results -- because they have a "firehose of information" in their pockets. He discusses how to best filter that information to make it useful without becoming overwhelming. Meredith Mangan, senior editor at Credible [https://credible.com], discusses the site's survey on prediction markets, which showed that 1 in 4 Americans already have made a wager on a prediction-market site [https://credible.com/personal-finance/prediction-market-statistics]. In a wide-ranging study looking at investor habits, she noted that more than 60% of Americans see prediction markets as betting, while just under 30% see them as a viable financial tool.

Wells Fargo's Samana: Technicals are telling investors to 'Play on!'

Sameer Samana, head of equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute [https://wellsfargo.com/investment-institute], says that as long as the market keeps making higher highs and lows, investors should use technical indicators as a North Star to stay in the game and ride the market higher. Samana says the market's move to record levels says that broader economy is strong enough to keep the market rolling with a "turbo-boost" from artificial intelligence on top of it providing faster growth, though he does worry about the economy overheating and needing to step back. He says the most likely scenario is for the market to "take a breather" between now and midterm elections, but "starting in November, you'll start the next leg of the bull market and it would not surprise me if that one runs well into end of next year." Kevin Roth, managing director of research for the CFB Board of Standards [https://cfp.net], discusses the group's recent survey on Americans and financial fraud which found that most people have faced some rip-off attempts, but almost no one discusses it with families or reports it to authorities. Some 55% of Americans expect fraudsters to target them or someone close to them in the next 12 months [https://cfp.net/-/media/files/cfp-board/knowledge/reports-and-research/consumer-surveys/2026-americans-and-financial-fraud-report.pdf], but less than 40% are confident they would catch every type of fraud they might face and avoid being ripped off. Plus, Josh Stevens, chief investment officer at CresAlta Investment Management [https://resalta.com] — which in May launched CresAlta Global Dividend and CresAlta Small and Mid-Cap, ETFs based around high-conviction growth strategies — talks stock investing now in the Market Call.

BNP Paribas' Morris says the big worry now is economic 'overheating'

Daniel Morris, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management [https://bnpparibas-am.com], says that his primary concern right now is the risk that the economy could overheat, thanks to above-trend growth and inflation that could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in an effort to slow things down. If that fails to cool inflation, the economy could then struggle and the market could step far away from its current uptrend. Morris' base case, however, is for continued earnings growth that can power the market into 2028, noting that while growth will slow down, there is still plenty of room to keep going and not have the economy resemble past bubble times. In The Book Interview, Chad Bown [https://chadpbown.com], co-author of "'How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy [https://simonandschuster.com/books/How-to-Win-a-Trade-War/Soumaya-Keynes/9781668221310]," discusses how there are reasons and ways for trade-war scenarios to play out well, and the trade-offs today's leaders would have to make for current trade tensions to pass without plunging the global economy into a deep funk. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia [https://vijaymarolia.com], chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital [https://regalpointcapital.com], discusses why he will continue to ride with Micro Technology, even as it reports growth numbers that are hard to believe, nt notes that he is giving Nike the boot, especially when he compares it to another popular rival in the public eye during the World Cup, adidas. Plus, he worries about how artificial intelligence may make inflation stickier for longer.

ChartPattern's Zanger: The market 'needs some Prozac, that's for sure'

Veteran analyst Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com [https://chartpattern.com], says the market right now is showing swings and moves that are reminiscent of the Internet bubble days of 2000. While that doesn't mean the market is headed for the same result, he says it creates more challenges for traders and investors, in part because they are trying to read the market off of wild swings and fast reversals. "It's definitely a very bifurcated market," Zanger says in discussing the tech and artificial-intelligence companies compared with everything else. "It needs Prozac, that's for sure." We go Off The News with Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor [https://thecollegeinvestor.com], examining the new student-loan repayment assistance plan and changes in student-loan lending limits [https://thecollegeinvestor.com/82225/new-graduate-school-loan-limits-start-july-1-what-students-need-to-know/], both of which go into effect on July 1. Farrington says these changes will help students and parents with the personal finances around college education, helping them focus on the value of the degree, noting that the loan limits are a "stop sign," where the government is suggesting that when someone takes on more debt, they are running much higher risk of not earning back the money they put into getting their degree. He notes that this is particularly important with master's degrees, where many grad students pay up for a diploma that doesn't repay their investment in the extra training. With private credit being an increasingly popular part of investment strategies these days, John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors [https://cefdata.com] — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance [https://aicalliance.org] — attended the Private Credit Summit hosted this week in New York City by Dechert LLP, and came away with a sense that private-credit markets have not yet gotten to the overheated levels that could turn investor fears of a blow-up into a financial reality. Scott discusses how big business development companies passed "stress tests" designed to show if they would break under severe market conditions, how insurance companies making investments into private credit are raising underwriting standards and thereby reducing the risk in private credit markets and more.