Northwestern Mutual's Schutte: 'We're in economic cycle overtime'

Value investor Davis on how investing is changing in the age of A.I.

Chris Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors [https://davisadvisors.com] discusses how every technological revolution — dating back to the days of the printing press but extending to the artificial-intelligence boom bow — goes through the cycle of "Amara's Law," in which the effects of a technology are overestimated in the short run but underestimated over the long term. As a result, Davis says investors are putting too much into the hype phase around AI, without looking at the long-term picture. Davis, in The Big Interview, echoes his recent paper on "Investing in the A.I. Age [https://davisetfs.com/investor_education/investing-in-ai-age]," which suggests that companies will fall into five categories: "emerging winners, enablers, users, insulated businesses and the walking dead," and talks about how investors can navigate the changing market and avoid the pitfalls of the latest technological evolution. Davis is not the only value manager discussing the current market on today's show. In the Market Call, John Dorfman — a long-time classic value manager and the chairman of Dorfman Value Investments [https://dorfmanvalue.com] — gives his take on how current conditions have created some changes to the investment processes that have defined his career, noting that they are subtle but substantive in delivering better returns than many investors expect the value style to deliver in a growth-dominated market. In today's "Talking Technicals" segment, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management [https://ithacawealth.com], says that the stock market is poised for more gains and new highs, and that investors should "hold on and ride the trend higher for sure." Fox discusses technical measures based around long-term trends, and he sees the Standard & Poor's 500 suprassing 10,000 and the Nasdaq 100 45,000 in "around two years." While he does see garden-variety corrections occuring in that time frame, Fox set S&P 7,000 as a key support level, noting it is possible there's a setback that low, even as the overall trend is upward.

Man Group's Hooper: A priced-for-perfection market is poised for trouble

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist for Man Group [https://man.com], says the market is entering a "greater discernment phase," where companies have been priced for massive growth and "incredibly high standards," setting up potential disappointment as investors become more picky while the AI revolution plays out. Hooper says this is a natural progression, one that investors saw during the Internet boom, as it started to fade. "I don't consider it a bubble," Hooper says, "but I do think that there is a timer that's ticking. Many investors are expecting to see monetization sooner rather than later; we don't know how much time they will give some of these companies." Hooper says the market's strong start to this year has lowered her expectations for the rest of the year, making her more pessimistic, raising the possibility of a technical recession — two quarters of negative GDP growth — as the economy works through its issues. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia [https://vijaymarolia.com], chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital [https://regalpointcapital.com], says that the record-breaking initial-public offering of SpaceX didn't change his mind about owning the stock, and in fact raised more issues about whether the hype around the company's "total addressable market" is real. He also discussed whether 2026 — with Anthropic and OpenAI also set for huge stock launches — is the "Year of the IPO," warning it may be more a time when venture capitalists are cashing out. Plus, he examines an alarming statistic about planned capital expenditures as a percentage of incoming revenues for the hyperscalers, a level currently set so high it's reminiscent of the end of the Internet boom. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs [https://newconstructs.com], revisits Cava Group, which was first in The Danger Zone before its IPO in June of 2023. The stock is up about 100% since last November, but Guske says that just raises the potential for it to crater, again (it lost half of its value late last year), which is why it's back in the Danger Zone now.

Northwestern Mutual's Schutte: 'We're in economic cycle overtime'

Brent Schutte [https://northwesternmutual.com/life-and-money/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary/], chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. [https://northwesternmutual.com], says that the current economic cycle is in "overtime," a point where the stock market gets narrow. As the cycle ends, however, he expects the market to broaden out, which could carry it higher, just driven by small-cap stocks and other industries. As a result, he says investors should stick to their plans and not let their portfolios get too focused on what has worked lately. "This is where, if you are an individual investor, your job is to get from Point A to Point B to Point C in your life. The way that you do that is that you don't concentrate, which can win magnificently and lose magnificently, and if you lose magnificently, you're not going to get back on track." In the "Talking Technicals" interview, Thomas Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors [https://vineyardglobaladvisors.com], says the technical underpinnings of the market are solid — though he also took notice of the narrow bands of strength — and sufficient to avoid deterioration into a bear market while the market focuses on the earnings story. "We're pushing $400 a share for earnings next year for the [Standard & Poor's] 500," Samuelson said. "If it trades at 23 times (earnings), you could get up to 9,000. That's 24% higher from here." John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, [https://cefadvisors.com] says that index discounts in municipal bonds and taxable bonds are wide compared to their three-year history, which is creating good opportunities for investors to find closed-end funds trading at wide discounts but supported by improving fundamentals. Scott, who also is chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance [https://aicalliance.org], uses his firm's "trifecta analysis" to select four funds as exemplars of the opportunities available to income investors now.

Glenview's Stone: 'Earnings are the fuel that sends stocks higher'

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust [https://glenviewtrust.com], says that the stock market "continues to price in that the Iran conflict is going to be over [soon]," which has kept the focus on blockbuster earnings numbers, which have been so strong that they have overcome virtually all economic and stock market concerns. He expects that earnings trend to continue, powering the market through some summer doldrums to where it finishes the year on a positive note. "Stocks don't go up short-term always with earnings but, long-term, earnings are the fuel that sends stocks higher," Stone says; with the earnings trend in place, he says long-term investors should be less concerned about worrisome headlines about inflation, war and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi [https://vettafi.com], looks at the Procure Space ETF (ticker: UFO) as his "ETF of the Week," noting how the fund has been a rocket ship this year, and that it will be worth watching as the SpaceX IPO launches this week and markets adjust to having that big-name stock joining the space-race sector. In the Market Call, Hank Smith [https://haverfordquality.com/about/our-team/henry-smith/], head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co. [https://haverfordquality.com], discusses the benefits of companies that pay growing dividends and that have an A-rated balance sheet.

Crossmark's Fernandez: Market needs a pause, but can regroup by year end

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments [https://crossmarkglobal.com], says that she is expecting the market to suffer some late summer doldrums as seasonal economic impacts end and mid-term elections put their traditional damper on enthusiasm, but that there will be some support for the market near year's end, making for "a positive year, but nothing like we've seen in the last two years." She acknowledges that makes her forecast a bit more sour than many observers, but says she thinks the market is showing signs of rotating and broadening out, and that change will slow down stock gains. Also contributing to that will be continued economic uncertainty; Fernandez does not expect a recession, but noted that stagflation could be hard to avoid if inflation gets higher and stickier and the War in Iran continues past the end of this month. In the Market Call, Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services [https://horizoninvestment.com] — which publishes "The Best Dividend and Income Investments" newsletter — discusses the firm's analytical system, called Quadrix, for sizing up a wide range of factors, and notes that a lot of the stocks that have been leading the way have fundamentals that should allow them to keep going strong from here, regardless of the broad economic storm clouds that are making many investors nervous. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who thinks his strategy of trying to make his baby grandson a millionaire in 65 years is "just showing off," because "Really, how much will a million dollars be worth then?"