The PredictIt Podcast

The PredictIt Podcast From Peru!

We called Kevin Warsh at 54 votes. It came in 54-45 — the closest Fed chair confirmation in modern history. The contract was trading at 3¢ the day before. If you're not listening, you're leaving money on the table. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell (reporting live from Peru) and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — PredictIt Pod dispatches from Peru: Lima, Paracas, bird islands 03:30 — Warsh confirmed 54-45: we called it, here's what it means for rates 07:00 — Trump in Beijing with Xi: Art of the Deal or genuine pivot on China? 10:00 — War powers vote: 212-212 tie, Jared Golden's deal, and what happens next 14:30 — Gas tax holiday: inevitable or does a hot stock market kill it? 17:00 — Fed rate hike incoming? How Warsh's first meeting on June 16 changes everything 19:30 — War powers at 11¢ in the House — is this a buy? 22:00 — Switching to Wednesdays after Memorial Day + astrology episode preview Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 [https://bit.ly/predictit2026] PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Real markets, real money, individual position limits that protect market integrity. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial [https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial] X: https://x.com/PredictItPod [https://x.com/PredictItPod] #PredictionMarkets #KevinWarsh #FedChair

Virginia Redistricting Struck Down: Who Wins the House Now?

The Virginia Supreme Court just struck down the voter-approved redistricting referendum in a 4-3 ruling — blocking a map that would have flipped four House seats. Democrats have fallen from 85¢ to 70¢ to take the House, and traders are repricing in real time. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Virginia Supreme Court kills the redistricting referendum: what it means 06:00 — Democrats at 71¢, "192 or fewer" seats contract crashes from 38¢ to 24¢ 09:00 — Spanberger vs. Jeffries: institutionalist vs. fighter — which strategy wins? 12:30 — Michigan Senate primary: Abdul El-Sayed (52¢) vs. McMorrow vs. Stevens 18:00 — Why traders are underpricing the establishment candidate Hailey Stevens 21:00 — New York 12: Lasher, Boris, Schlossberg, Conway — who wins Nadler's seat? 28:00 — The "Oreo strategy": progressive inside, kitchen table centrist outside 31:00 — Herschel Walker, ambassadorships, and the best jobs in American politics Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 [https://bit.ly/predictit2026] PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Real markets, real money, individual position limits designed to protect market integrity. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial [https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial] X: https://x.com/PredictItPod [https://x.com/PredictItPod] #PredictionMarkets #VirginiaRedistricting #2026Midterms

Democrats to Take the House Is On Sale

The Supreme Court's Callais decision just reshaped the path to a 2026 House majority. Democrats fell from 87¢ to 79¢ on PredictIt — but the underlying fundamentals (Trump approval, generic ballot, cost-of-living concerns) suggest traders may be overcorrecting. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: SCOTUS Callais decision: cracking vs. packing and what's about to change Democrats at 79¢ to take the House: buying opportunity or trap? Trump's approval at lowest tracked, gas at $4.30, no policy turn in sight Iran, Operation Freedom, and why Democrats aren't capitalizing RFK Jr. at 49¢: who's the next cabinet member out Kevin Warsh whip count: 52-53 votes most likely, 39¢ on the upside Jerome Powell stays on: the most political move of his term Susan Collins flips on Iran War Powers Act — does it move Maine numbers? The "Lobster Man": progressive momentum vs. an entrenched incumbent Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 [https://bit.ly/predictit2026] PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Real markets, real money, individual position caps that protect market integrity. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial [https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial] X: https://x.com/PredictItPod [https://x.com/PredictItPod] This podcast reflects the hosts' personal analysis and is not trading advice. #PredictionMarkets #SCOTUS #Redistricting2026

The Case for Prediction Market Caps

PredictIt's $3,500 individual position cap is its single biggest differentiator and the recent Polymarket insider trading charge, bouts of political violence, and questions over what place prediction markets place in society proves why caps matter for the integrity of the market. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: White House Correspondents Dinner attempted attack: condemning all political violence Wes Moore on Bill Maher: "I could bet against myself for $4M" The case for prediction market caps: why $3,500 limits matter Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation: whip count at 53 or 54? Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 [https://bit.ly/predictit2026] Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial [https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial] X: https://x.com/PredictItPod [https://x.com/PredictItPod] This podcast reflects the hosts' personal analysis and is not trading advice. #PredictionMarkets #PredictIt #FedChair

Grading Nostradamus and Virginia's Redistricting Vote

Virginia's April 21 redistricting referendum could flip up to 4 House seats and reshape the 2026 midterms. We break down where PredictIthave it priced and whether the data should scare traders holding Yes at 85 cents. In this episode of PredictIt Official, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — The national popular vote compact hits 222 electoral votes 04:30 — Senate 2026 market vs. S&P 500: why traders are pricing in a Democratic Senate 07:30 — Taking an Iranian cargo ship: the Middle East ceasefire that isn't holding 12:00 — Nostradamus predictions for 2026 — grading him four months in 21:30 — Virginia redistricting referendum: 6-10% margin or wider? 25:00 — Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation: will DOJ drama kill it? 27:30 — Will Corey Mills leave the House before May? Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 [https://bit.ly/predictit2026] Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial [https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial] X: https://x.com/PredictItPod [https://x.com/PredictItPod] Disclosure: Jacob Studwell is Growth Engagement Officer at PredictIt. This podcast reflects the hosts' personal analysis and is not trading advice. #PredictionMarkets #VirginiaRedistricting #Politics2026