The CPTPP Podcast

The CPTPP Podcast - 16: Dull Donald but Opportunist APEC?

Podcast show notes and links are below. Thanks for listening! The G2 meetings was interesting! Meanwhile… China, a non-member of the TPP, is planning related events and inviting various countries without their consent, raising concerns about its intentions. China, the chair of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting to be held in Suzhou, China on the 22nd and 23rd, is planning to host events related to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Amidst the United States' shift towards protectionism, the CPTPP is gaining prominence as a multilateral framework that will achieve a high level of trade liberalization. China is likely seeking to find a way to join the CPTPP and expand its influence within the multilateral trading system in the region. https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2026051600118&g=eco [https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2026051600118&g=eco] Remember despite many similar APEC and CPTPP members (Japan, Australia, Canada, Vietnam, Mexico, New Zealand, Chile, Peru + more)… …one is loose and one is more legally free trade + more binding - which is why the US bailed from the latter (but names like the UK joined). China interesting! And thinking again more globally about the CPTPP, two recent great East Asia Forum articles: CPTPP–EU cooperation can set the pace for global trade Outside these sensitive areas, CPTPP–EU rules and cooperation mechanisms can evolve and spread through constructive institutional competition with other regional frameworks, CPTPP accession and issue-specific plurilateral arrangements within the WTO. The inaugural CPTPP–ASEAN Trade and Investment Dialogue, launched in November 2025 alongside the CPTPP–EU dialogue, offers one example for how linkages can be gradually built to widen workable rules through multiple, open pathways. To preserve speed, CPTPP-EU cooperation should also use soft-law instruments such as MoUs, action plans and joint principles where appropriate, rather than relying only on legally binding agreements that may require lengthy domestic ratification. CPTPP–EU cooperation alone cannot save the trading order. But countries that value openness and multilateralism can still lead the formation of next-generation trade rules. To defend the WTO, its supporters can no longer rely on the WTO alone. https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/16/cptpp-eu-cooperation-can-set-the-pace-for-global-trade/ [https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/16/cptpp-eu-cooperation-can-set-the-pace-for-global-trade/] Middle powers should look to East Asia https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/17/middle-powers-should-look-to-east-asia/ [https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/17/middle-powers-should-look-to-east-asia/] Yes, am looking forward to: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting to be held in Suzhou, China on the 22nd and 23rd May meeting Not that there is not plenty of matters to talk about just amongst APEC member but also EU/China discussions: A sinking ship? Why the EU and China could be heading for a trade war Clashes at a conference in Chinese capital reflect wider tensions that threaten to descend into an economic conflict “Europe needs the Chinese market to help its flagging economy and secure key inputs, and China needs the EU market even more than ever, as its home market flatlines and its access to the US market shrinks. “Neither can fight on two fronts at once. And as [Chinese strategist] Sun Tzu famously said, the smartest way to win a victory is without having to fight. China knows it has time on its side.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3353867/sinking-ship-why-eu-and-china-could-be-heading-trade-war?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage [https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3353867/sinking-ship-why-eu-and-china-could-be-heading-trade-war?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage] As for another (more likely re a 2026 announcement akin to Costa Rica?) Uruguay is making progress towards joining the CPTPP with the first meeting of the working group "We had a series of bilateral meetings at the senior official level with all member countries plus a plenary presentation in which Uruguay made an initial presentation of the reasons for its interest in joining the CPTPP," explained Deputy Foreign Minister Valeria Csukasi, who participated in the meeting held in London, to the EFE news agency. https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/05/13/uruguay-avanza-en-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-con-la-primera-reunion-del-grupo-de-trabajo/ [https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/05/13/uruguay-avanza-en-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-con-la-primera-reunion-del-grupo-de-trabajo/] Uruguay accelerates its accession to the CPTPP and assures that “there are no doubts” about compliance with the commitments For the Uruguayan government, joining the CPTPP represents a strategic opportunity to diversify markets and deepen the country's international integration, especially towards the Asia-Pacific region. https://www.comexlatam.com/uruguay-acelera-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-y-asegura-que-no-hay-dudas-sobre-el-cumplimiento-de-los-compromisos/ [https://www.comexlatam.com/uruguay-acelera-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-y-asegura-que-no-hay-dudas-sobre-el-cumplimiento-de-los-compromisos/] And finally… Will South Korea move towards the TPP? This will be a crucial test after the unified local elections. In response, the 12 countries participating in the CPTPP recently reached a broad agreement on Costa Rica's accession. Negotiations with Uruguay are also nearing completion, while Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are awaiting the start of negotiations. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQODK050T80V00C26A5000000/?n_cid=dsapp_share_android [https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQODK050T80V00C26A5000000/?n_cid=dsapp_share_android] Donald, by contrast, where art though (and the broader US) with regards to freer trade and hence the CPTPP and related?! Yes, am looking forward to: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting to be held in Suzhou, China on the 22nd and 23rd May meeting

The CPTPP Podcast - 15: Hello Costa Rica!

All the shownotes - as promised - are below. Contact me at chris.bailey@financialorbit.com if you have any questions or thoughts! Speak to you next week. Over the last week… Costa Rica becomes 13th member of CPTPP It becomes the second nation to accede to the CPTPP outside the original membership, following the United Kingdom. Entry isn’t expected until the second half of 2027, but trade minister Todd McClay said it meant over 94 percent of New Zealand’s exports to Costa Rica would be duty-free from day one, and 99 percent within ten years. Along with New Zealand, the other members of the agreement are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam. China, Taiwan, Ecuador, Uruguay, Ukraine, Indonesia, Philippines, United Arab Emirates, and Cambodia have all applied to join the agreement. Worth reading https://www.bilaterals.org/?costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of [https://www.bilaterals.org/?costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of] https://ukpoliticsdecoded.uk/decoded-blog/costa-rica-joins-cptpp-uk-trade-bloc-may-2026.html [https://ukpoliticsdecoded.uk/decoded-blog/costa-rica-joins-cptpp-uk-trade-bloc-may-2026.html] CPTPP reaches key agreement on Costa Rica's accession to the bloc https://logistica360.pe/cptpp-logra-acuerdo-clave-en-adhesion-de-costa-rica-al-bloque/ [https://logistica360.pe/cptpp-logra-acuerdo-clave-en-adhesion-de-costa-rica-al-bloque/] https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/594442/costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of-cptpp [https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/594442/costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of-cptpp] Elsewhere in the world….excellent G Zero Media report Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney attended a meeting of the European Political Community in Armenia this weekend, a first by the leader of a non-European country. He was invited to discuss common interests in trade, energy, and security. In a speech that echoed his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos two months earlier, Carney called on middle powers, including Canada and European nations, to work together in the wake of disruption of the established world order — implicitly pointing to the United States. “It’s my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt,” he told the crowd in Yerevan, “but it will be rebuilt out of Europe.” So while it’s unlikely that Canada will definitively swap Washington for Brussels, a deeper transatlantic partnership appears to be in the cards — and a popular option on both sides of the pond. What shape that takes might depend on the fate of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this summer. Should that trade deal not be renegotiated by July 1, Canada — and Carney — will feel even greater pressure to diversify trade and shore up alliances elsewhere. https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysis/as-ties-with-the-us-fray-canada-looks-across-the-atlantic [https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysis/as-ties-with-the-us-fray-canada-looks-across-the-atlantic] And mentioning Canada, beef, the CPTPP and the Mercosur deals… Beef sector warns new trade deals may undercut Canadian producers As Canada moves ahead with trade agreements like the CPTPP and potential Mercosur deal, beef industry representatives are raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the sector. Yes, on BBC radio today, a story which effectively highlights again whilst CPTPP member Chile has lots of positive trade angles that are attracting many Argentian consumers / spenders: Every year, hundreds of thousands of Argentineans cross the Andes looking for bargains. We'll be finding out why, and if it's a trend that's going to last. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct8gfr [https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct8gfr] A spokesperson for International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said they’re committed to working with the industry to address barriers to the UK market, but noted that Canadian beef exports to CPTPP markets saw a 149.5% increase in beef exports between 2018 and 2025, from $338 million to $842 million. “The U.K.’s accession will integrate another major G7 economy into the CPTPP framework and regional supply chains, providing greater certainty and further opportunities for Canadian exporters, including our farmers, to diversity trade and investment,” they said. https://www.ipolitics.ca/2026/05/06/beef-sector-warns-new-trade-deals-may-undercut-canadian-producers/ [https://www.ipolitics.ca/2026/05/06/beef-sector-warns-new-trade-deals-may-undercut-canadian-producers/] We await for the Trump / Xi meeting on 14th/15th May. Lots to discuss re politics and trade. I keep on hearing mentions of the Board of Trade. Nice ‘Board of Trade, Ahoy’ piece here… https://chinaarticles.substack.com/p/board-of-trade-ahoy [https://chinaarticles.substack.com/p/board-of-trade-ahoy] …but it makes me think about the ‘Board of Peace’ and related Trump seems to want to chair. Interesting to be reminded that back in March this year… In March of this year, Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong stated at the Boao Forum that Singapore "supports and welcomes China to join the CPTPP." This prompts me to reflect on why Taiwan has consistently struggled to achieve substantial breakthroughs in regional economic integration, a matter of vital economic importance. https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20260510002376-262104?chdtv#disqus_thread [https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20260510002376-262104?chdtv#disqus_thread] My own thoughts: Watch the upcoming Trump/Xi trade (and more) discussions later this week. The former is talking more about a 'Board of Trade', which possibly is an early attempt to create an alternative to the WTO. Simultaneously, some recent CPTPP/EU discussions provide an alternative trade perspective. Will be interesting to see if China gives any opinions on all this; whilst the US can try to be isolationist if it wishes (not wise economically, but the US have the best scope to be isolationist of any G20 country), this is not true of China, Europe, the average CPTPP member etc. - and Taiwan too. Maybe some early stage answers by the end of this month. And talking about the WTO The WTO has opened online registration for this year's Public Forum, titled Powering the Future, which will take place at the WTO premises in Geneva from 15 to 17 September. It has also launched a call for proposals for the event, which this year will focus on services trade. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/pfor_30apr26_370_e.htm [https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/pfor_30apr26_370_e.htm] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsuuO1Y1XVM [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsuuO1Y1XVM] (and also on the WTO…as per some of the above) At a meeting of the Committee on Balance-of-Payments Restrictions held on 5 May, WTO members discussed the United States' new notification regarding the imposition of import surcharges to address the country's serious balance-of-payments deficits. The United States said the surcharges took effect on 24 February 2026 and will expire on 24 July 2026, unless extended by an act of Congress. Members welcomed the transparency of the United States and its readiness to engage in consultations in line with WTO rules. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/bop_05may26_385_e.htm [https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/bop_05may26_385_e.htm] )

The CPTPP Podcast - 14: CPTPP Whispers

As I read on the 29th April… Good bit of news for Canada and Mexico…now they just have to sort out a (new) trade deal with the US! Nothing formally yet re Costa Rica, but might not be far off… Costa Rica 🇨🇷 is close to finalizing its negotiations with the CPTPP to join as a full member. https://observador.cr/costa-rica-espera-concretar-en-pocos-dias-su-ingreso-al-acuerdo-transpacifico-acceso-al-15-del-pib-mundial/ [https://observador.cr/costa-rica-espera-concretar-en-pocos-dias-su-ingreso-al-acuerdo-transpacifico-acceso-al-15-del-pib-mundial/] Good news re trade… #1 Starting May 1, China's zero-tariff policy takes full effect for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, as announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in a congratulatory message to the 39th African Union Summit on Feb. 14. #2 #3 Whisky and the US But… And also trade angst re the G2? WTO is also messy, so what about other trade groups RCEP represents a more inclusive and incremental approach to meeting standards among a diverse group of economies, while CPTPP features a more focused membership. APEC is well placed to identify and advance practical opportunities for alignment, or at least greater coordination, between the CPTPP and the RCEP. Useful work could be done on mapping rules and identifying low-cost alignment opportunities between the CPTPP and the RCEP. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/28/WS69f000bea310d6866eb45d95.html [https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/28/WS69f000bea310d6866eb45d95.html] Ah yes, the FTAAP https://mb.com.ph/2026/05/04/beijing-aims-to-merge-top-trade-blocs-into-one-massive-asia-pacific-deal [https://mb.com.ph/2026/05/04/beijing-aims-to-merge-top-trade-blocs-into-one-massive-asia-pacific-deal] I agree that ASEAN should give RCEP a chance… https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/04/30/asean-must-give-rcep-a-chance/ [https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/04/30/asean-must-give-rcep-a-chance/] ….but is an expanded CPTPP a better idea than the WTO… …yes, back to the push of Mark Carney, middle powers / CPTPP and the EU angles. But what about the (People’s) Republic of China role? (Re latter link https://www.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=95&s=121153 [https://www.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=95&s=121153] I tell you what I am looking forward to: The long-delayed summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is finalised for 14-15 May 2026 when Trump travels to Beijing.

The CPTPP Podcast - 13: New Deals Status

Sorry for not sending out a podcast last week, but I was a bit ill...and I cannot be quite up to full health yet as I seem to regard the US-Mexico CPTPP sign-off agreement as being just under a month away, when clearly I should have said just under two months away! Will try better next week... Hope you find the general show notes below of use. UK-Mexico CPTPP trade to begin from 22 June 2026, following Mexico’s belated ratification of the UK’s accession protocol. Means Canada as the only member of the 12-nation bloc which has yet to approve UK membership. For Mexico, one key benefit will be a new 8,000-tonne UK tariff rate quota for bananas, with a special in-quota tariff rate of £40 per tonne. https://borderlex.net/2026/04/23/uk-mexico-cptpp-trade-to-begin-in-june/ [https://borderlex.net/2026/04/23/uk-mexico-cptpp-trade-to-begin-in-june/] Vietnam is the 2026 CPTPP chair The CPTPP is considered a vital "next-generation" trade agreement for Vietnam, aiding its goal to become an industrialized nation by 2045, with a particular focus on gaining deeper access to key markets. Couple of weeks ago… To Lam, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee and president of Vietnam, arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for a state visit to China through Friday. China is the first country To Lam visits following his recent election as Vietnamese president. Vietnam expressed its support for China’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), in line with the agreement’s standards and procedures. Vietnam also voiced support for China hosting APEC in 2026, while China backed Vietnam’s hosting of APEC in 2027. The sides further affirmed support for countries to engage in equal negotiations to address trade issues through measures consistent with the rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). https://vietnamlawmagazine.vn/vietnam-china-issue-joint-statement-on-deepening-comprehensive-strategic-cooperative-partnership-in-new-era-79242.html [https://vietnamlawmagazine.vn/vietnam-china-issue-joint-statement-on-deepening-comprehensive-strategic-cooperative-partnership-in-new-era-79242.html] Vietnam / China ‘One China’... Brunei-linked ‘Taiwan application to join the CPTPP’ Under China's influence, officials from member states sometimes refrain from explicitly stating their support or opposition to Taiwan's application for membership, instead using diplomatic language such as "the relevant authorities are still considering it" to appease Taiwan; or they may verbally express support but fail to take concrete actions to assist Taiwan. Furthermore, given the high degree of overlap between the CPTPP and RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), and China's existing membership in RCEP, while also applying to join the CPTPP, suggests that China is not concerned about when it will join. However, China has already signed bilateral free trade agreements with Peru and Chile, leaving only Canada, Mexico, and the UK without bilateral or regional trade agreements with China. For China, if the existing tariff and non-tariff treatment measures with these three countries under the WTO framework are sufficient, it won't be in a hurry to join the CPTPP. Otherwise, it would need to further expand its market opening and then use its own stalled application to hinder Taiwan's application—which would be perfectly convenient. https://www.daipai.tw/article.php?SerialNo=66232 [https://www.daipai.tw/article.php?SerialNo=66232] Japan has been building CPTPP… Vietnam pledges to support Argentina in accessing ASEAN, Asia-Pacific markets The ambassador spoke highly of the commencement of negotiations on a preferential trade agreement (PTA) between Vietnam and the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) in December 2025, appreciating Argentina’s proactive role and support in realising this milestone. During a working session between ASEAN ambassadors and Argentina’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, International Trade and Worship Pablo Quirno in Buenos Aires, Nguyet underscored economic and trade cooperation as a pillar of the Vietnam – Argentina Comprehensive Partnership. He highlighted Argentina’s strengths in civil nuclear and space technology, expressing interest in cooperation with ASEAN countries in these fields. He added that Argentina is considering an application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-pledges-to-support-argentina-in-accessing-asean-asia-pacific-markets-post341354.vnp [https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-pledges-to-support-argentina-in-accessing-asean-asia-pacific-markets-post341354.vnp] The trans-Pacific bloc is set to admit further new members in coming years. Costa Rica is reported to be close to finalising accession negotiations launched in late 2024. A senior source from a member government told Borderlex this week that once Costa Rica’s accession talks had been wrapped up, Uruguay would be “next in line” to join.

The CPTPP Podcast - 12: Not A Choice But A Survival Strategy

Thank you for listening to The CPTPP Podcast. A few show notes below for your further review, and look forward to providing you with a further update next Monday. Where did I get that title from? South Korea and the CPTPP https://asaninst.org/bbs/board.php?bo_table=s1_3_eng&wr_id=105 [https://asaninst.org/bbs/board.php?bo_table=s1_3_eng&wr_id=105] Middle powers only? China, Canada, the CPTPP…and the WTO? https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-china-indo-pacific-trade-pact/ [https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-china-indo-pacific-trade-pact/] WTO and China and ‘who will write the alternative rules’ And in an article titled: “Trade Explainer: EU-CPTPP Cooperation and the Search for New Coalitions”, was interesting to note: If the WTO does manage to stabilize the e-commerce moratorium and advance its digital agenda, EU-CPTPP cooperation could reinforce that momentum. If not, Yaoundé may be remembered as another confirmation that the center of gravity is shifting. Middle-power coalitions are no longer waiting for consensus to emerge. They are building it elsewhere. https://www.gmfus.org/news/trade-explainer-eu-cptpp-cooperation-and-search-new-coalitions?utm_source=Concep&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=World+Wire%3a+GMF+Launches+the+European+Defense+Roadmap+Initiative_04%2f10%2f2026 [https://www.gmfus.org/news/trade-explainer-eu-cptpp-cooperation-and-search-new-coalitions?utm_source=Concep&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=World+Wire%3a+GMF+Launches+the+European+Defense+Roadmap+Initiative_04%2f10%2f2026] Lots of new global trade survival tactics to keep focusing on Thanks, Chris Bailey