Doha Talks Resume

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday close). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Crude broken below $70 last week. This week watch for Hormuz escalation risk. Talks resume Doha Jun 30. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub at ~$3.28/MMBtu (down ~0.49%). Jun 22 EIA spot $3.16/MMBtu. CME Henry Hub futures $3.28-$3.31 range. EIA projections averages ~$3.34-$3.60/MMBtu for 2026 periods. Storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS: Mid-June MOU signed ~Jun 17. Formal signing ~Jun 19 Geneva, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for nuclear issues, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access. Late Jun Switzerland talks ~Jun 19-21 Bürgenstock, Switzerland (near Geneva, Lucerne). Described positive and constructive. Progress high-level oversight committee, Hormuz communications line, IAEA inspectors' access discussed. Some follow-ups called off amid regional flare-ups (Lebanon, Hezbollah). JUNE 29 UPDATES: US and Iran agreed to halt attacks. Plans for renewed talks Doha, Qatar, Jun 30. Focus Strait and broader MOU implementation. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Fragile recovery post-MOU. Traffic picking up modestly (some LNG and VLCC movements). Well below pre-conflict norms (~138 vessels/day pre-war vs single digits-low tens recently). Hampered by risks, insurance, recent incidents. Post-MOU efforts UN maritime agency coordination, freeing trapped ships, safer routes near Oman. Recent escalation (late Jun 2026) attacks on commercial vessels/cargo ships. US retaliatory strikes on Iran. Iran signaling intent to resume transit fees after 60-day suspension. Iran asserts control over waterway. Ongoing mine risks, blockades, incidents suppressing traffic. Some Iranian oil exports resuming in limited volumes. SETUP: Crude support at $67.93, resistance at $71.84. Watch Doha talks Jun 30. Hormuz escalation risk remains. Gas $3.28/MMBtu. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday technicals showed broad range $73-$78 zone, short bias below $73.91. Wednesday EIA inventory report crude fell 8.3M barrels week ending Jun 12 (10th consecutive draw, multi-decade lows). Thursday crude broke $70 (fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered). Friday closed $70.54. WEEKLY SUMMARY: Week-start $74.82, week-end $70.54, weekly change -$4.28 (-5.72%). Weekly high $78.96 (Mon), weekly low $68.91 (Thu). Largest daily drop -3.92% Wed (close $70.34). Daily closes Mon $74.82, Tue $73.21, Wed $70.34, Thu $71.52, Fri $70.54. Pattern seventh lower low in recent sessions. Key drivers easing supply disruption fears from Strait of Hormuz reopening, EIA revised 2026 global demand forecast lower (-1.1M bpd). Context well below 2026 peaks above $100/bbl earlier in year. NATURAL GAS RECAP: EIA Weekly Storage Report released Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19: Working gas 2,835 Bcf. Net change +76 Bcf injection. Year-ago 49 Bcf below. 5-year average 152 Bcf above. HENRY HUB SPOT PRICES: Jun 5 $3.03/MMBtu, Jun 12 $3.16/MMBtu, Jun 19 $3.12/MMBtu, Jun 22 $3.16/MMBtu. HENRY HUB FUTURES: August contract ~$3.282-$3.288. Nearby contracts low-to-mid $3.10s-$3.20s range. Some daily closes $3.15-$3.23. EIA PROJECTIONS: Henry Hub averages ~$3.30-$4.00/MMBtu for parts of 2026. WEEK 26 SUMMARY: Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, broke $70, support at $67.93. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact, $3.05-$3.15 prime entry, target $4.00+. Geopolitical premium gone. WEEK 27 PREVIEW: Watch further Hormuz normalization. Technical talks resume Geneva. Crude support at $67.93. Gas accumulation continues. BOTTOM LINE: Twenty-six weeks. Every thesis confirmed. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% past month, still up ~6% YTD. PRIMARY DRIVER: Easing supply concerns as Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal, increasing crude flows, pressuring prices lower. Brent crude low-to-mid $72s (multi-month lows). Near-term levels four-to-five month lows, continued downward pressure. VOLATILITY NOTE: Significant retreat from 2026 highs tied to geopolitical supply risks. Markets pricing in improved supply availability. SETUP: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Below that $65.15. Resistance at $71.84. Above that $73.91. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Weekly net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago (Jun 12, 2025) 2,788 Bcf (down 29 Bcf or -1.0%). 5-year average (2021-2025) 2,608 Bcf (up 151 Bcf or +5.8%). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. NEXT REPORT: Jun 25 at 10:30 AM ET for week ending Jun 19. Analyst forecasts ~68 Bcf injection. Prior week 73 Bcf below some expectations (80-82 Bcf), contributing to upward pressure on natural gas prices. DEAL STATUS: MOU signed ~Jun 15-17. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for broader deal. KEY ELEMENTS: Iran diluting highly enriched uranium stockpiles. UN nuclear inspectors returning. Strait of Hormuz reopened to maritime traffic, no tolls. Sanctions relief, possible frozen assets release ($25-300B incentives/reconstruction). Working groups on oversight, sanctions, nuclear matters. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Previously near zero daily transits during conflict. Partial reopening under MOU with fluctuating but generally increasing traffic. Projections rise toward 40-50% pre-war levels (~40 transits/day vs ~100 pre-war) within 30 days if stable. Recent stalls only 12 ships one Sunday amid closure announcements, traffic picked up since. Iranian, Omani, international routes in use. NEGOTIATIONS: Technical talks set to resume Geneva following week. US officials (Secretary of State Marco Rubio) warning talks could halt if Iran seeks tolls. Regional players (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) discussing security implications. BOTTOM LINE: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.

EIA Inventory Report: Draws Continue

Wednesday, June 24, 2026. EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORY REPORT RELEASED TODAY. Week ending June 19. Released June 24 at 10:30 AM ET. MOST RECENT DATA: EIA report released Jun 17 for week ending Jun 12: Commercial crude fell 8.3M barrels to 418.2M barrels (6% below 5-year average). 10th consecutive weekly draw. Total crude incl. SPR at multi-decade lows. Refinery crude inputs 17.2M bpd (+230K b/d WoW). Refinery utilization 96.7% operable capacity. Cushing stocks down 1.6M barrels. Gasoline stocks down 0.9M barrels. Distillate stocks up 1.0M barrels. API DATA: Week ending Jun 19, released Jun 23: Crude fell 0.77M barrels (much smaller than prior week's 8.33M). Significant slowdown in draw rate. MARKET EXPECTATIONS: EIA report for week ending Jun 19 market expects ~-5.1M barrel draw. MARKET CONTEXT: Brent averaging ~$105/bbl Jun-Jul (elevated). WTI following similar dynamics. Tight supply environment. Geopolitical supply disruptions Iran-related, Strait of Hormuz. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total stocks 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago 29 Bcf lower (-1.0%) vs Jun 12, 2025 (2,788 Bcf). 5-year average 151 Bcf higher (+5.8%) vs 2021-2025 avg (2,608 Bcf). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL STOCKS: East 532, Midwest 638, Mountain 226, Pacific 309, South Central 1,053 Bcf. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. SETUP: 73 Bcf build matches 5-year average for same week, below last year's 97 Bcf. Henry Hub spot ~$3.19-$3.32/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude inventory draws supporting lower prices. Tight supply but geopolitical premium fading. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude fade trade complete. Geopolitical premium gone. Inventory draws supporting lower prices. Gas storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Technicals: Week 26

Tuesday, June 23, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $73.85-$74.21. KEY SUPPORT: Immediate $73.91; Below: $71.84, $69.92, $67.93, $65.15, $63.30, $61.23, $58.95, $56.53, $54.82. KEY RESISTANCE: Immediate $76.02; Above: $78.42, $80.53, $82.67, $85.09, $87.30, $89.72, $92.50, $94.99, $97.41. TRADING BIAS: Short bias below $73.91 (target lower supports, stop above ~$74.83); Long bias above $76.02 (target higher resistances, same stop). SETUP: Broad $73-$78 zone for immediate support/resistance. June 2026 range $71.73-$106.74. INVENTORY DATA: API (released Jun 16, week ending Jun 12) commercial crude fell 8.33M barrels (exceeded expectations -4.5M). EIA (released Jun 17, week ending Jun 12) commercial crude declined 8.263M barrels to 418.2M barrels (larger than forecast -3.6M to -4.6M). Total crude incl. SPR fell 17.2M barrels to 758.5M barrels (lows not seen since mid-1980s). Cushing stocks dropped 1.606M barrels to 20.03M (near multi-year lows). Context multi-week draw trend, refinery runs up, net imports down. NEXT REPORTS: API Jun 23 (Tue), EIA Jun 24 (Wed) for week ending Jun 19. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading ~$3.263 (day's range $3.256-$3.272). RSI 14 43.501 sell signal (below 50, weakening momentum but not oversold). MACD 12,26 -0.003 sell signal (negative, below signal line). CLASSIC PIVOT POINTS: Pivot 3.266, S1 3.262, R1 3.270. MOVING AVERAGES: MA5 3.264 buy signal (price near/slightly above); MA20 3.298 sell signal (price below); MA50 3.268 sell signal (price below); MA200 3.179 buy signal (price well above). OVERALL: Strong Sell (moving averages sell, technical indicators strong sell). THE READ: Crude broad range $73-$78 zone. Short bias below $73.91. Long bias above $76.02. Inventory draws supporting lower prices. Gas weak technicals. RSI neutral. MACD negative. Moving averages bearish. Accumulation zone intact but technicals need reset. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.