Russia's War Economy Is Starting to Crack

Russia's War Economy Is Starting to Crack

Russia's economy once seemed remarkably resilient in the face of international sanctions. But in recent months, a growing number of indicators suggest that Russia's war economy is coming under strains not seen since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The budget deficit, which had remained relatively stable, is beginning to balloon. Inflation is accelerating. Labor shortages are widespread. And banks are being compelled to offer preferential loans to military industries, crowding out lending to the civilian economy. Is Russia's economy finally approaching a breaking point? And what might that mean for Vladimir Putin's grip on power and his ability to sustain the war? I'm joined today by Charles Lichfield, director of economic foresight and analysis and the C. Boyden Gray Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center. He is the author of a new report showing how recent developments have intensified some of the Russian economy's underlying structural weaknesses. In our conversation, he explains why Russia's economy is beginning to crack after four years of war in Ukraine—and what those cracks could mean for the future of the war.

What are the "Causes of Peace" Today? | Live from the Aspen Security Forum with the International Crisis Group

What can bring about peace in an era of geopolitical rivalry and persistent conflict? In an ambitious new report, the International Crisis Group takes a hard-nosed approach to this question, offering a realistic assessment of what is—and is not—possible when it comes to preventing and ending conflict today. I caught up with Crisis Group's Comfort Ero, Michael Hanna, and Ginger Jacobs at the Aspen Security Forum in July. They explain why a new approach to conflict resolution is needed—and why the old models are no longer suited to today's world.

What Is the Future of US-China Relations? | Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Live from the Aspen Security Forum

Nicholas Burns is a veteran diplomat who served as President Biden's ambassador to China during a crucial period in U.S.-China relations. We caught up at the Aspen Security Forum in July for a wide-ranging conversation about Chinese foreign policy, including Beijing's evolving diplomatic role in the conflict with Iran, what Xi Jinping hopes to gain from upcoming summits with Donald Trump, and whether China is really seeking to supplant the United States in international institutions.

How Ukraine Turned the Tide of the War | Live from the Aspen Security Forum

In recent months, Ukraine has clearly seized the initiative against Russia. Its impressive use of drones and autonomous weapons systems has put Russia on the defensive, while strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are causing gasoline shortages for ordinary Russians. I speak with The Wall Street Journal's Yaroslav Trofimov about how and why Ukraine's fortunes have suddenly turned—and what comes next in the war. We caught up at the Aspen Security Forum on the same day that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, even though Fedorov had championed many of the tactics that made Ukraine's advances possible. We begin by discussing that dramatic turn of events before broadening the conversation to the current trajectory of the war. Buy Yaroslav's book about the Urkaine war from an indy bookseller here: Our Enemies Will Vanish [https://bookshop.org/p/books/our-enemies-will-vanish-the-russian-invasion-and-ukraine-s-war-of-independence-yaroslav-trofimov/36e4b99fac19949b?ean=9780593655184&bkshp-astro=t]

Introducing: "World's Toughest Job" -- A new podcast about the Next UN Secretary General

I want to recommend a new podcast I think our audience will like: it's called World's Toughest Job, from Foreign Policy magazine and the United Nations Foundation. And today, I'm sharing with you the debut episode. Between now and the end of this year, 193 member states will elect a new secretary-general of the United Nations. This person will oversee a staff of tens of thousands around the world and be asked to manage global emergencies, avert climate disaster, and end wars—all while answering to 193 bosses. On World's Toughest Job, co-hosts Jasmin Baoumy and former UN Deputy Secretary-General Mark Malloch-Brown spend 8 episodes talking with world leaders, thinkers, and diplomats about what kind of leader the UN needs now. The selection process for the next secretary-general is happening now, so the show is particularly timely - we recommend you check it out. You can find World's Toughest Job on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.