Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI

Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine

Cameron Tracy joins to discuss his TNSR article on "technological surprise" and "normalization through use" in the Russo-Ukrainian war [https://tnsr.org/roundtable/new-precision-strike-weapons-in-the-russo-ukrainian-war/]. He explains how forecasting about warfare often overweights extreme scenarios and is reinforced by professional and organizational incentives, producing hype with little accountability. We discuss drones, Russia's failure to gain air superiority, and four case studies: hypersonic-associated missiles (Kinzhal, Tsirkon) intercepted by Patriot systems, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile's quick normalization after alarmist reactions, and Russia's effective UMPK glide bomb kits. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI

Political psychologist Rose McDermott discusses her article [https://tnsr.org/roundtable/the-influence-of-psychological-factors-in-the-search-for-strategic-stability/] on how systematic judgment biases can undermine nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, especially under emerging technologies like AI. McDermott explains Kahneman's Type 1 (fast, intuitive) versus Type 2 (slow, analytical) thinking and how four biases—overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect—can distort leaders' crisis decisions, probability judgments, and security trade-offs. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin

Francis J. Gavin, chair of the TNSR editorial board, joins us to discuss his article, "Strategic Stability and Its Limits: Reflections on Schelling." [https://tnsr.org/roundtable/strategic-stability-and-its-limits-reflections-on-schelling/] Gavin explains why Thomas Schelling remains foundational to nuclear strategy despite being an economist, and argues that "strategic stability" is often invoked without clear definition. He highlights tensions between mutual vulnerability and US extended deterrence and nonproliferation goals, and describes contradictions between Schelling's writings on arms control and coercion. Gavin critiques simplified historical lessons about surprise attack and inadvertent war shaping stability theory, traces how Cold War political constraints drove US nuclear posture, and urges policymakers to put politics and state interests first when assessing nuclear risks and emerging technologies such as AI, cyber, autonomy, and biotechnology. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

Strategic Stability in a Rapidly Changing World

Harold Trinkunas, the Deputy Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation, and a senior research scholar at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, recently helped assemble our special issue on emerging technologies and strategic stability. In this episode, he previews the issue by explaining how Cold War deterrence assumptions rooted in a bilateral US–Soviet relationship no longer hold amid more nuclear-armed actors, wider access to AI, cyber, hypersonics, and the possibility that these tools can threaten second-strike forces or create effects once associated with nuclear weapons. Our discussion highlights risks of preemption, inadvertent escalation driven by automation and bad data, and psychological and organizational biases intensified by time compression and increasingly personalist regimes. Article: "Emerging Technologies and the Future of Strategic Stability" [https://tnsr.org/roundtable/emerging-technologies-and-the-future-of-strategic-stability/] Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

A Dystopian Take on Rising Authoritarianism and Resistance

Melissa Chan joins to discuss her career reporting across Asia and why she pivoted from journalism to co-creating the graphic novel "You Must Take Part In Revolution" [https://www.amazon.com/You-Must-Take-Part-Revolution/dp/1951491297] with activist-artist Badiucao. We discuss the book's visual style (Chinese watercolor influences, Frank Miller's Sin City palette, and manga elements), the subversive Mao-derived title, and a near-future plot spanning Hong Kong to a 2035 war over Taiwan amid surveillance, drones, and AI. Chan describes choices around depicting resistance, representation, and hidden "Easter eggs," and reflects on the book's strong reception. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning