Post Election Analysis With Laura Belin

Zach Lahn Lived (s) in Kansas; Why Run for Governor in Iowa?

Kansas Journalist Tim Carpenter Offers Perspective on Zach Lahn’s Kansas Years Veteran Kansas political reporter Tim Carpenter joined the Potluck to discuss what Iowa voters may want to know about Republican gubernatorial nominee Zach Lahn’s years in Kansas. Throughout the conversation, Carpenter was careful to distinguish between documented facts, his own observations, and areas where he believes additional reporting is needed. Carpenter noted that Lahn spent much of his adult life in Kansas, particularly in the Wichita area, where he became involved in politics, nonprofit work, education, and business ventures. Carpenter said he first became aware of Lahn’s Kansas background shortly before Iowa’s primary election and wrote a story examining that connection. One of Carpenter’s observations was that Lahn presents himself as a political outsider, despite having spent years working in politics and advocacy organizations, including Americans for Prosperity, a national conservative organization with ties to businessman Charles Koch. Carpenter suggested that voters may wish to consider how that experience aligns with Lahn’s outsider message. The discussion also focused on Lahn’s connection to the Koch family. Carpenter noted that Lahn worked with the Wonder School, an innovative private school in Wichita, and later married Annie Koch, formerly married to Chase Koch, son of Charles Koch. Carpenter said these connections are part of Lahn’s public biography and may help explain some of the opportunities available to him during his time in Kansas. However, Carpenter emphasized that he has no direct evidence regarding the role, if any, that Koch family members or Koch-affiliated organizations are playing in Lahn’s Iowa campaign. Several participants asked about the Wonder School. Carpenter described it as an unusual educational model that has attracted attention in Wichita. At the same time, he said he would like to learn more about the school’s operations, outcomes, and leadership structure. Carpenter characterized his own understanding of the school as incomplete and said further reporting would be valuable. Carpenter also discussed Lahn’s campaign positions on issues such as water quality, agriculture, and corporate concentration. He observed that some of Lahn’s rhetoric differs from traditional Republican messaging, particularly his criticism of agricultural monopolies and concerns about water pollution. Carpenter said it remains to be seen how prominently those issues will feature in the general election campaign and whether Lahn’s positions evolve over time. When asked directly about Lahn’s honesty or trustworthiness, Carpenter repeatedly declined to offer a personal judgment. He stressed that he has written only one story about Lahn, has never interviewed him, and has not spent enough time around him to assess his character. Carpenter contrasted that with politicians he has covered for decades, where long experience sometimes gives reporters insight into a public official’s credibility. In Lahn’s case, Carpenter said he simply does not know enough to reach such conclusions. The issue of residency also arose during the discussion. Carpenter acknowledged that Lahn appears to satisfy the legal requirements to run for governor of Iowa. However, he said voters may reasonably ask questions about a candidate who spent much of his adult life outside the state before returning and seeking statewide office. Carpenter framed this as a political question for voters rather than a legal challenge. Overall, Carpenter portrayed Lahn as an intriguing and unconventional candidate whose background warrants continued scrutiny by journalists and voters alike. Rather than drawing firm conclusions, Carpenter repeatedly encouraged further reporting and fact-checking. His central message was that Iowans still have much to learn about Zach Lahn’s years in Kansas, his business and educational ventures, his political evolution, and how those experiences may shape his candidacy for governor. The Okoboji Writers’ and Songwriters’ Retreat is Proud to Sponsor Julie Gammack’s Potluck Learn more [https://okobojiwritersretreat.com] Iowa Writers’ Collaborative Did you catch the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative Roundup on Wednesday? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe [https://okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

A Baseball Writer Who Was Born for the Beat

Our guest on Monday knew at a very young age that he wanted baseball to be part of his life. As fate would have it, that wasn’t going to happen as a player. Some people seem born for their names. Judges judge. Farmers farm. Bakers bake. And then there’s Jared Diamond. A diamond, of course, is the shape of a baseball field. Not every Diamond becomes a baseball writer, but if you’re going to spend your career covering America’s pastime for The Wall Street Journal, it doesn’t hurt to have a memorable surname. My Potluck podcast guest this week was sports journalist Jared Diamond, the national baseball writer for The Wall Street Journal. Jared has covered Major League Baseball for more than a decade, including assignments following both the New York Mets and New York Yankees before taking on his current national role. He joined the Journal in 2011 after graduating from Syracuse University’s renowned S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications. Jared is also the author of the bestselling book Swing Kings: The Inside Story of Baseball’s Home Run Revolution, an inside look at the data, technology, and personalities that transformed modern baseball. His reporting has taken him deep into some of the sport’s biggest stories, from the Astros sign-stealing scandal to labor disputes, gambling controversies, and the changing economics of professional sports. One of the most interesting parts of our conversation had nothing to do with baseball. Jared believes artificial intelligence is already changing sports and journalism, but not in the way many people fear. While he uses AI regularly for research and reporting support, he doesn’t use it to write. Instead, he sees it as a tool that can make journalists more efficient. The real value, he argues, will shift toward original reporting because AI can only analyze information that is already public. It cannot uncover stories that haven’t yet been reported. In Jared’s view, the ability to discover new information — the essence of reporting — is “AI-proof” and may become even more valuable in the years ahead. We also had terrific audience participation from Iowa Writers’ Collaborative members Chuck Offenburger, Rob Gray, Bob Leonard and Barry Piatt, along with Potluck readers Tim Grover and Brice Oakley. Chuck was first up with a question many of us were wondering: How in the world did a young sportswriter land one of the most coveted jobs in journalism? The podcast actually begins with Jared’s answer. Due to pilot error (me), I neglected to restart the recording after our opening conversation. As it turns out, Diamond joined The Wall Street Journal almost by accident. After graduating from Syracuse University and completing an internship at the Virginian-Pilot, he learned that a former mentor was launching a sports section at the Journal. A simple email led to a job, then a baseball assignment, and ultimately a 15-year career covering the sport. Today he enjoys extraordinary freedom to pursue stories that interest him rather than chasing transactions and breaking news. He described his role as looking for stories that reveal something larger about baseball, business, culture, or human nature. Unlike many national baseball reporters, Diamond isn’t interested in being first with trade rumors or contract signings. Instead, he searches for stories no one else is telling and that wouldn’t exist without original reporting. Diamond credits much of his success to Syracuse University’s student newspaper, The Daily Orange, where editors painstakingly reviewed and improved his work. He also emphasized a lesson that applies far beyond sports: Writers don’t need to be experts in a subject to tell compelling stories. Curiosity, fresh eyes and an interest in people matter more than encyclopedic knowledge. Another topic that generated discussion was sports gambling. Diamond expressed deep concern about its rapid growth, calling it “an incredible net negative for sports.” He worries that a generation of young people has grown up with betting apps such as FanDuel and believes the long-term consequences are only beginning to emerge. He suggested that sports leagues are just starting to understand the risks gambling poses to the games themselves. Throughout the conversation, Diamond returned to a theme that would resonate with any writer: Whether covering baseball, politics, business or the Olympics, the best stories are ultimately about people. Statistics, analytics and technology have transformed sports. Human stories remain at the center of why readers care. Okoboji Tick tock. The Early Bird discount ends July 5. If you’ve been thinking about joining us in Okoboji this fall, now is the time. This retreat is going to be the best one yet. Five literary agents. New memoir coaches. Bestselling authors. Journalists. Songwriters. Filmmakers. A community of people who understand what it means to create something from nothing. Whether you’re just beginning to imagine a project or arriving with a manuscript under your arm, you’ll find encouragement, practical advice and fellow travelers on the path. All skill levels are welcome. The expert was once a novice. Come. Our T-shirt theme this year: Courage is contagious. Iowa Writers’ Collaborative I am delighted to be a founding member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative. On July 7, Richard and I will host a special gathering for paid subscribers of the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. Dave Price, Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin are among the sharpest political observers in Iowa. Together, they provide reporting, analysis and context that help make sense of an increasingly complicated political landscape. Independent journalism doesn’t happen by accident. It requires readers who value it enough to support it. We are grateful to the paid subscribers who help make Iowa Down Ballot possible, and we look forward to thanking them in person for sustaining this important work. If you can join us from 4-6:30 p.m. on July 7, please RSVP and we will get you the location information. Please subscribe to Iowa Down Ballot: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe [https://okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Three Guys Fomenting a Revolution

The Lobe Rangers: Iowa Farmers Challenging the Status Quo Julie Gammack’s podcast featured the Lobe Rangers, a trio of Iowa farmers—Zach Smith, Matt Bormann, and James Hepp—who are advocating for practical changes in agriculture that they believe can improve Iowa’s water quality, soil health, and rural communities while also helping farmers remain profitable. The discussion opened with journalist, farmer and Iowa Writers’ Collaborative member Darcy Maulsby [https://substack.com/profile/46008665-darcy-maulsby], who described the Lobe Rangers as one of the most hopeful developments she has seen in Iowa agriculture in 30 years. She said their message offers practical solutions to problems such as polluted water and soil erosion while also making economic sense for farmers. It was Darcy who introduced our Collaborative members to the Lobe Rangers when we gathered in Storm Lake earlier this spring. Who Are the Lobe Rangers? All three members are working farmers who have adopted conservation-minded practices, including cover crops, strip tillage, no-till farming, reduced fertilizer applications, and improved nutrient management. They emphasize that these methods are not simply environmental measures. Many of them were adopted because they reduce costs, improve soil productivity, and make farms more resilient and profitable. Their Core Message The Lobe Rangers argue that Iowa already has a scientifically developed roadmap for improving water quality: the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, adopted in 2013. They believe the problem is not a lack of knowledge, but a lack of implementation. According to the group, politicians frequently talk about water quality, conservation, and nutrient reduction, but actual progress on the ground remains limited. Their mission is to compare political promises with what scientists say is actually necessary to improve Iowa’s waterways. Why They Remain Nonpartisan Although two members are Republicans and one is an Independent, they intentionally avoid aligning with political parties. They argue that cancer rates are not partisan, polluted water affects everyone, and clean lakes and rivers matter regardless of political affiliation. Rather than endorsing candidates, they want voters to understand the science and ask harder questions of elected officials. The Truth, According to the Rangers When I asked, “What is the truth?” each member offered a variation of the same answer. They believe Iowa is not achieving meaningful water-quality improvements. The science already exists to address the problem, but the pace of change is far too slow. Farmers, policymakers, and citizens need to be honest about what it will take to improve conditions. Matt Bormann said he became frustrated while serving on Iowa’s State Soil and Water Conservation Committee because conservation success stories were often highlighted while broader statewide progress remained limited. Voluntary Conservation vs. Regulation One of the most significant conversations centered on whether voluntary conservation efforts are enough. The Rangers argued that after more than a decade of voluntary programs, adoption rates remain too low. While they recognize that regulation is unpopular among farmers, they believe some policy changes and incentives will eventually be necessary if Iowa hopes to achieve its nutrient reduction goals. At the same time, they emphasized that any policy should help farmers transition rather than punish them. Results on Their Own Farms All three farmers reported measurable benefits from conservation practices. They described lower fuel and equipment costs, reduced fertilizer use, better water infiltration during heavy rains, increased organic matter in the soil, and strong crop yields. James Gillmore described cutting tractor horsepower needs in half after switching systems and significantly reducing fertilizer expenses. Zach Smith noted that regenerative-style practices have produced exceptionally high corn yields on some acres while improving soil health. The Role of the Farm Bill The conversation also explored federal farm policy. The Rangers argued that current crop insurance programs heavily favor corn and soybeans, making it difficult for farmers to diversify into other crops such as small grains, forage crops, and alternative rotations. They believe future farm policy should support more diverse cropping systems, expand insurance options for alternative crops, and encourage farming systems that improve soil and water quality. What’s Standing in the Way? The group identified fear of change, fear of failure, economic pressure, existing agricultural systems and incentives, and political influence from large corporations and industry groups as major obstacles. They argue that many farmers understand the problems but are reluctant to be the first to change. Art Cullen’s Perspective Art Cullen [https://substack.com/profile/22151696-art-cullen] was on the call, and said the Lobe Rangers are part of a larger shift in Iowa’s conversation about agriculture, and they know what “they are talking about.” “Farmers are going to grow what they are paid to grow, and so they are going to grow corn and soybeans until it’s coming out your ears. If you want them to grow grass, pay them to grow grass.” Final Takeaway The Lobe Rangers are not advocating for the end of modern agriculture. Instead, they argue that Iowa can continue to be one of the world’s most productive farming regions while dramatically improving water quality, rebuilding soil health, and strengthening rural communities. Their message is straightforward: the science already exists, the practices work, and the challenge is finding the political and public will to implement them at scale. Our lives depend on it. Resources Shared Jim Sayers shared several resources related to the Lobe Rangers: * The Lobe Rangers: The Lobe Rangers [https://www.theloberangers.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com] * The Lobe Rangers Facebook page * Land Stewardship Project podcast featuring the Lobe Rangers: Ear to the Ground #395: The Lobe Rangers [https://landstewardshipproject.org/podcast/ear-to-the-ground-395-the-lobe-rangers/?utm_source=chatgpt.com] Here’s the mid-week Flipside Roundup of columns by Iowa Writers’ Collaborative Members Don’t Miss Early Bird Pricing for the Okoboji Writers’ and Songwriters’ Retreat Deb Engle and I did a short interview about OWSR on WHO TV’s Hello Iowa program. Hello Iowa [https://who13.com/hello-iowa/retreat-helps-writers-hone-skills/] - an interview with Debra Engle [https://substack.com/profile/41988809-debra-engle] and Julie Gammack [https://substack.com/profile/26159174-julie-gammack] This is a public episode. 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Post Election Analysis With Laura Belin

Laura Belin’s Analysis of Iowa’s Primary Election Results Laura Belin, editor of Bleeding Heartland and co-host of the Iowa Down Ballot podcast, joined the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative the morning after Iowa’s primary election to help unpack what happened and what it means for November. Her overall conclusion: Iowa voters sent a clear message that they are looking for candidates who engage directly with voters and offer something different from the political establishment. Feenstra’s Defeat Was the Story of the Night Belin described Randy Feenstra’s loss in the Republican gubernatorial primary as the biggest surprise of the election. In her view, Feenstra entered the race with virtually every advantage imaginable. He was a sitting member of Congress, enjoyed strong establishment support, had significant fundraising, and received a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Yet he lost. Belin argued that Feenstra’s campaign strategy was fundamentally flawed. He avoided debates, skipped multi-candidate forums, held mostly small events with supporters, and rarely placed himself in situations where voters could ask difficult questions. She said Iowa voters still expect candidates to show up and earn their support, and Feenstra never did. Meanwhile, Zach Lahn did. Why Zach Lahn Connected With Voters Belin believes Zach Lahn’s appeal stemmed from his outsider status and his focus on issues that many Iowans believe are being ignored. His campaign centered on four themes: * Young people leaving Iowa * The decline of family farms * Struggles within public education * Iowa’s high cancer rates Belin noted that Lahn also spoke openly about water quality, agricultural consolidation, and corporate influence—issues that aren’t commonly emphasized by Republican candidates. Because he has never held elected office, voters were able to view him as a fresh face rather than someone responsible for the state’s current problems. That made him a particularly effective change candidate. Trump’s Endorsement Arrived Too Late Belin believes Donald Trump’s endorsement probably helped Feenstra but wasn’t enough to overcome the campaign’s weaknesses. She suggested Republican insiders became concerned when polling showed Feenstra underperforming and Lahn gaining momentum, leading to a last-minute effort to secure Trump’s backing. Had Trump endorsed Feenstra months earlier, Belin speculated, the outcome might have been different. Instead, one of Trump’s endorsed candidates lost one of the highest-profile primary races of the year. Josh Turek’s Senate Victory On the Democratic side, Belin attributed Josh Turek’s decisive Senate primary victory largely to the enormous amount of outside spending supporting his candidacy. Millions of dollars from VoteVets helped introduce Turek to Democratic voters and tell his personal story across the state. Belin said many Democrats genuinely liked both Turek and Zach Wahls. Rather than choosing between a strong candidate and a weak candidate, voters were choosing between two candidates they generally respected. The difference, she argued, was visibility. Turek simply had far more advertising reaching voters. Belin also said Tom Harkin’s endorsement likely helped Turek, though she was surprised the campaign didn’t emphasize it more heavily. Turnout Was Stronger Than Expected One of the night’s more surprising developments was voter turnout. Republican turnout exceeded expectations despite weak early-voting numbers. Democratic turnout was significantly higher than many analysts predicted, even though Democrats had only one truly competitive statewide contest. Belin said the stronger Democratic turnout could be an encouraging sign for Democrats heading into the general election. Legislative Results Show Continued Republican Shift Belin pointed to the defeats of Republican legislators Brian Lohse and Jane Bloomingdale as evidence that Iowa’s Republican Party continues moving away from its moderate wing. Both lawmakers were viewed as more pragmatic Republicans and were targeted by conservative groups. Their defeats suggest that the center of gravity within the party continues to move rightward. Rob Sand Faces a Tougher Opponent Looking ahead to November, Belin believes Rob Sand would have preferred to face Feenstra rather than Lahn. Sand has built his campaign around the idea that Iowa needs change after years of one-party Republican control. The challenge now is that Lahn is making a very similar argument. Because Lahn has never served in elected office, Democrats cannot tie him to unpopular legislative decisions or congressional votes. Belin expects Sand’s campaign to emphasize Lahn’s years living in Kansas and attempt to define him early before voters form firm impressions. Still, she believes Lahn presents a more complicated challenge than Feenstra would have. Data Centers Are Emerging as a Major Political Issue Former legislator Chuck Isenhart joined the discussion and predicted that data centers could become one of Iowa’s most significant political issues. He pointed to a new moratorium on data-center development in Dubuque County and suggested the issue could become as contentious as carbon pipelines. Several participants agreed that data centers may affect nearly every county in Iowa and could become a major issue in local elections across the state. The Bottom Line Belin’s central theme throughout the discussion was simple: Iowa voters reward candidates who engage with them. Feenstra largely avoided voters and paid the price. Zach Lahn spent months building a message around issues many Iowans care deeply about and earned an upset victory. Meanwhile, Josh Turek demonstrated the power of a compelling biography backed by substantial outside spending. And as Iowa heads toward November, Belin expects the governor’s race between Rob Sand and Zach Lahn to be far more competitive—and far less predictable—than many observers anticipated. Follow Laura Belin. Become a paid subscriber. She is working day and night to keep us informed. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe [https://okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Live with Julie Gammack & Dana Kennedy

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe [https://okobojiwriters.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]