Brief: The Delivery Problem

Super Brief: The Guidance Vacuum — Super Brief

The Guidance Vacuum. In his first international outing at the ECB's Sintra forum, Warsh killed forward guidance: the Fed will no longer "manage expectations," and he said he would welcome more bond-market volatility. The 10-year jumped roughly 3 basis points to 4.47 percent on the spot. The structural read is that forwa

Brief: Meta flips AI scarcity narrative

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the world's central bankers he is done managing their expectations, and the bond market heard him: the 10-year climbed roughly 3 basis points to 4.47%. The same morning, ADP printed +98k (a miss) and ISM manufacturing prices paid collapsed from 82.1 to 73.0, meaning Wa

Super Brief: The Delivery Problem — Super Brief

The Delivery Problem. The S&P closed at 7,449 and the Dow cleared 52,319 for a fresh all-time high, and almost none of it was conviction. Andy Constan quantified the move: a $15 billion leveraged-ETF rebalance and an $8.5 billion options roll, a combined $23.5 billion forced buy that landed on one session because the cal

Brief: The Delivery Problem

The Dow printed a record and the first half closed with $251 billion in US IPO and share sales, the most since 2021. Underneath: the yen broke 162 for the first time since Reagan, Nike's earnings beat was 72 percent tariff refund, the S&P's strength ran on $23.5 billion of mechanical quarter-end flo

Super Brief: Escalate to Negotiate — Super Brief

Escalate to Negotiate. Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain before dawn Sunday, the first direct strikes on allied soil since the war began on February 28. Kuwait intercepted two missiles with no casualties; Bahrain reported a damaged building near the airport. W