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Polls - The Graveyard of Confident Predictions

29 min · 7 de abr de 2026
Portada del episodio Polls - The Graveyard of Confident Predictions

Descripción

Miles Mercer examines two catastrophic polling failures that changed history: the 1936 Literary Digest disaster predicting Alf Landon over FDR, and the infamous 1948 "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline. Through these stories, the episode reveals how sampling bias, voluntary response errors, and misplaced confidence turned millions of data points into spectacular mispredictions that destroyed reputations and reshaped political forecasting forever. Loved this episode? Discover more original shows from the Quiet Please Network at QuietPlease.ai, explore our curated favorites here amzn.to/42YoQGI, and catch just a slice of our AI hosts in action on Instagram at instagram.com/claredelish and YouTube at youtube.com/@DIYHOMEGARDENTV This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.

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4 episodios

Portada del episodio Polls - Are Polls Getting Worse, or Are We Just Paying More Attention?

Polls - Are Polls Getting Worse, or Are We Just Paying More Attention?

Join host Miles Mercer as he examines whether political polling is truly deteriorating or if our expectations have simply outpaced reality. Using data from over 26,000 polls across 45 countries and seven decades, Miles reveals how modern polling accuracy compares to historical standards and why recent high-profile misses don't tell the whole story about survey methodology's current state. Loved this episode? Discover more original shows from the Quiet Please Network at QuietPlease.ai, explore our curated favorites here amzn.to/42YoQGI, and catch just a slice of our AI hosts in action on Instagram at instagram.com/claredelish and YouTube at youtube.com/@DIYHOMEGARDENTV This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.

7 de abr de 202629 min
Portada del episodio Polls - The Graveyard of Confident Predictions

Polls - The Graveyard of Confident Predictions

Miles Mercer examines two catastrophic polling failures that changed history: the 1936 Literary Digest disaster predicting Alf Landon over FDR, and the infamous 1948 "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline. Through these stories, the episode reveals how sampling bias, voluntary response errors, and misplaced confidence turned millions of data points into spectacular mispredictions that destroyed reputations and reshaped political forecasting forever. Loved this episode? Discover more original shows from the Quiet Please Network at QuietPlease.ai, explore our curated favorites here amzn.to/42YoQGI, and catch just a slice of our AI hosts in action on Instagram at instagram.com/claredelish and YouTube at youtube.com/@DIYHOMEGARDENTV This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.

7 de abr de 202629 min