Microsoft's Ten-Year-High Short Interest and the Positioning Break in AI

Microsoft's Ten-Year-High Short Interest and the Positioning Break in AI

Microsoft is down 19% on the year while Alphabet is up 11% and Amazon is up 7% — big CapEx bets, different outcomes. Bob Sloan takes Charlie Gasparino through what S3's data shows underneath it: short interest up 68% to a ten-year high, and active hedge fund longs heading for the exits at the same time. Both sides of hedge fund positioning, one direction: Sell Microsoft. Bob explains why. In the neo-clouds, Bob explains why a 50-60% jump in short interest overstates the bearishness — much of the sector's financing runs through convertible debt, and convert arb desks short the stock to hedge it. However, as prices fell, some of that hedge came off, leaving a larger share of the book directional. Plus memory, where US shorts have covered but Taiwanese conviction hasn't budged, and the Hong Kong–Korea spread narrowing after weeks on the S3 radar. Away from the data desk: Charlie on why 12 state AGs are suing to block Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery hours after the EU approved it, the $7 million-a-day ticking fee, New York City muni yields popping two weeks running under Mayor Mamdani, and what a senior JPMorgan executive told him about the Wall Street Journal's story on IRS chief Frank Bisignano. Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com 00:00 — Intro 02:17 — Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery: 12 AGs, one EU approval 04:54 — The TRO, the preliminary injunction, and the $7M/day ticking fee 10:07 — New York City munis: yields popping under Mamdani 13:06 — Capital flight happens gradually, then suddenly 19:08 — No shorts left in the bond ETFs — the air pocket setup 21:26 — The Wall Street Journal, Frank Bisignano, and what JPMorgan actually found 31:26 — S3 picks: Roper (ROP) bullish, Nasdaq (NDAQ) bearish 32:38 — Microsoft down 19%: the OpenAI exposure problem 37:05 — Neo-cloud shorts: hedge unwind vs. directional conviction 38:02 — Memory: US shorts cover, Taiwan holds 39:18 — Hong Kong–South Korea: the spread narrows 41:22 — Space, the IPO break, and never catching the bottom

Positioning Turns Bearish: Oracle, CoreWeave PLUS Rich Greenfield on the Paramount Battle

Media analyst Rich Greenfield joins Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan to break down California's lawsuit challenging the Paramount-Skydance merger and why timing—not necessarily the legal merits—could determine the deal's future. Charlie and Rich discuss Netflix's competitive position, the economics of theatrical films, AMC's ongoing challenges, and the future of media consolidation.At the data desk Bob Sloan, S3 Partners founder and managing partner walks through this week's biggest positioning shifts. Oracle (ORCL) sees short interest nearly double while credit markets flash caution around AI spending and leverage. CoreWeave (CRWV) remains one of the market's most important bellwether stocks as directional short sellers continue pressing the trade despite a significant pullback. Bob also highlights a notable divergence between Healthcare and Technology positioning, where active stock pickers are driving healthcare exposure while passive flows dominate technology even as short interest continues to build.Charlie closes with a discussion on SpaceX's post-IPO trading, oil markets, New York municipal bonds, media consolidation, and the political landscape heading toward the next presidential election.Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets.For more information about the positioning data featured in this episode visit www.S3Partners.com.Chapters00:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw] — Intro00:45 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=45s] — Rich Greenfield joins: Paramount vs. California06:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=380s] — Netflix, media consolidation & theatrical power11:45 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=705s] — AMC, movie theaters & The Odyssey19:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=1190s] — S3 Positioning: Oracle (ORCL) turns bearish23:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=1400s] — CoreWeave (CRWV): record shorts & AI infrastructure26:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=1580s] — Healthcare vs. Technology positioning28:15 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=1695s] — SpaceX after the IPO30:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=1800s] — Oil, Iran and market risk34:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=2040s] — Politics, media and the 2028 race39:30 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=2370s] — NYC bonds, Rockefeller & capital flight48:15 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCXwskm3XEw&t=2895s] — Wrap-up

Crowded Shorts, Trapped Longs: The Positioning Map from U.S. Crypto to Hong Kong

S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan flagged Strategy's (MSTR) funding problem months ago. With Bitcoin near $60K and Saylor's break-even around $70K, Bob and Charlie Gasparino break down the negative carry, the asset-liability mismatch, and the "holes in the boat": if his 4% of all Bitcoin starts hitting the tape, the ~$20K technical floor of the last crypto winter comes back into play. On the S3 radar: Pepsi (PEP), the bullish pick of the week into earnings, short interest up 46% against a rising price; Hong Kong, a tinderbox with shorts up 49% as China nears a deflation exit; memory/DRAM, where US shorts press SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) at extreme Z-scores while Korean longs, up 200%, crush shorts out of the market; and Circle (CRCL), down 19% on passive selling even with active longs at 2.5x shorts — a crack in the stablecoin duopoly. Away from the data desk, Charlie reports on the Sun Valley media gathering — knitting class included — where Ken Griffin rejects the class-warfare label and sources say the Comcast–Charter deal everyone expects isn't happening. Plus a live text brawl between AMC CEO Adam Aron and analyst Rich Greenfield over dilution math, and Jay Clayton's nod for Director of National Intelligence. Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com 00:00 Intro 02:36 Breaking news from Sun Valley: the billionaires' knitting class 07:15 Ken Griffin, class warfare, and the mogul lineup 15:36 Strategy (MSTR): Saylor below break-even 19:38 "Holes in the boat" — why $20K is Bitcoin's technical floor 23:00 Why Brian Roberts looks glum: Comcast–Charter math doesn't work 26:27 S3 pick of the week: Pepsi (PEP) bullish into earnings 27:14 Hong Kong tinderbox: shorts +49% as China nears a deflation exit 29:13 China Vanke and the state backstop 31:26 Memory/DRAM: shorts press SanDisk & Micron at extreme Z-scores 32:32 South Korea's "dragon's mouth": Active long positioning 35:01 Circle (CRCL): a cracking stablecoin duopoly 37:19 AMC text brawl: Adam Aron vs. Rich Greenfield on dilution 44:33 Wrap-up

Selloffs, Squeezes & a July 4th Bull Case for America!

Bitcoin's been cut in half — is the crypto winter just getting started? Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan break down the data behind the selloff, and why S3's positioning numbers on Strategy (MSTR) signal more pain ahead: a dilution spiral where the company issued shares, converts and then preferred shares, forcing an endless hunt for funding to hold the price up. Bob ties it to David Einhorn's classic Allied Capital short — you can't fight a stock while the money keeps flowing, in either direction. Away from the data desk, Charlie gets into why Europe is at war with air conditioning, Comcast's NBCUniversal spinoff and the failure of the media-conglomerate model, and why independent media is eating legacy TV's lunch. On the S3 side, four names are on the radar: Wendy's (WEN), a meme and battleground stock on ten-year-high short interest and a Reddit-fueled surge; the memory/DRAM sector, where shorts and passive money pile in as active investors flee; healthcare, the most crowded hedge-fund long. All capped with a July 4th case for American optimism! Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. 00:00 Intro — Bob Sloan, S3, and the "data drives news" ethos 04:57 Crypto winter: Bitcoin halves from $120K 09:23 Crypto infrastructure and the long-term bull case 10:15 MSTR: dilution death spiral? 16:13 Einhorn's Allied Capital — you can't short the funding 18:09 IBIT short interest: watching for the bottom 19:35 Europe's war on air conditioning 25:59 Comcast spins off NBCUniversal 30:41 Why the media-conglomerate model keeps failing 35:20 Independent media is winning — a million views on positioning 40:20 Wendy's (WEN): meme stock & battleground setup 43:26 Memory/DRAM sector: shorts and passive money surge 44:44 Healthcare: the most crowded hedge-fund long since 2021 53:33 July 4th sign-off: the case for American optimism

Positioning Is Everything: The Seventh Category of Market Data

Charlie Gasparino opens with the headlines he's been breaking: the Paramount-Skydance bid for Warner Bros. getting a pass from the Trump administration, why two progressive state AGs could still tie up the $81 billion deal, and the puzzle of why Cory Booker is fighting Trump's bipartisan college sports reform. Then S3 Partners founder and managing partner Bob Sloan makes the case for "the seventh category of market data"—the daily battle between passive flows, active managers, and short interest that's quietly reshaping how stocks move. The pair dig into Q2's biggest short squeezes, why energy left an "air pocket" below the April top, and the live Micron earnings playing out as levered hedge-fund dollars square off against record passive ownership. Plus: the "Magnificent Ten," why space shorts only target pre-revenue names, and SpaceX shedding $250 billion in a single day. Broadcast June 24, 2026. Chapter Breakdown 00:00 — Intro 01:34 — Paramount-Skydance, Warner Bros. & the Antitrust Fight 07:09 — TikTok, Media Consolidation & the AG Lawsuit Threat 10:07 — College Sports Reform & the Cory Booker Puzzle 12:11 — Space Falls $250B in a Day — The Size of Alibaba 20:47 — Lockup Overhangs, Supply & Short Interest Spikes 22:04 — The Seventh Category of Market Data 25:33 — Energy: No Shorts, One-Way Bet & the Air Pocket 28:23 — Micron & Qualcomm: The Levered vs. Unlevered Dollar 30:40 — Qualcomm's Widening Ownership Gap & 5-Year-High Shorts 33:38 — The "Magnificent Ten" and the AI Proxy Trade 37:24 — Space Sector: Shorts Target Pre-Revenue Names 39:50 — Reading the SpaceX S-1: A $28 Trillion TAM 47:13 — Kevin Warsh, AI at the Fed & the Data Mandate 50:04 — The $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Problem 52:38 — Where to Catch Bob Next & Wrap Want the data behind the discussion? S3 Partners is the only complete data set for long and short positioning. Follow Risk & Return for a new edition every week, and visit s3partners.com to see how the seventh category of market data can sharpen your trading. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss an episode.