Medicaid is on the Brink. What’s at Risk?

States on the Front Lines — Leading Through Federal Retrenchment

The scale of federal retrenchment is no longer theoretical. In Massachusetts alone, the state is bracing for an estimated $3.5 billion annual loss in federal Medicaid funding once H.R. 1 is fully implemented, against a total Medicaid budget of over $20 billion. Even with aggressive mitigation, the state could still see about 300,000 residents lose coverage. The idea that H.R. 1 simply “right-sizes” Medicaid while protecting the most vulnerable is already breaking down. Children, pregnant women, and people with disabilities are already feeling the effects through fear-driven disenrollment, mounting pressure on rural maternity care, and tighter scrutiny of home- and community-based services. States cannot replace lost federal dollars, but they are not standing still. This episode of The 80 Million Podcast shows how state leaders are investing in trusted, community-based outreach to keep eligible people covered, tackling affordability, shoring up providers and leading through the maelstrom.

Addressing Social Needs in Medicaid — The Evidence Is In. Now What?

The evidence that addressing social needs like food and transportation improves health outcomes and reduces Medicaid costs is no longer theoretical. We’ve seen recent data from two efforts: North Carolina’s Healthy Opportunities Pilots [https://80million.substack.com/p/addressing-social-needs-saves-money] (HOP) generated $164 in savings per member per month, according to a new, multiyear evaluation [https://www.ncdhhs.gov/hop-evaluation/download?attachment] of 31,000 Medicaid enrollees by the Sheps Center at University of North Carolina. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Accountable Health Communities model [https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/data-and-reports/2024/ahc-3rd-eval-report-aag] showed 3%–4% reductions in total cost of care through screening and navigation alone. Payment remains a major structural barrier. Most of this work — outreach, navigation and coordination — has no billing code under fee for service. Scaling requires value-based arrangements with real teeth, not the “value veneers” that occupy value-based care real estate without changing care delivery. Waymark, a Medicaid-focused care delivery company, addresses this by pairing AI-enabled community-based care teams with value-based contracts designed to measure impact and align payment with proven intervention. States don’t need to wait for federal action. Managed Medicaid contracts allowing for accountable programs that meet social and clinical needs, using in-lieu-of services authority, and directing rural health transformation dollars [https://80million.substack.com/p/rural-health-transformation-the-smart?utm_source=publication-search] toward this infrastructure are all available now. Still, permanent scale will require Congress to move this work from waiver territory into the core Medicaid benefit. Rajaie Batniji, Patti Boozang and Mandy Cohen explore what the latest evidence on addressing social needs in Medicaid means for policy and practice in this week’s 80 Million Podcast. The discussion examines why the case for action is stronger than ever, what it takes to scale these interventions, and where states can move now.

AI and Digital Innovation in Medicaid — Promise, Peril and What to Buy

State Medicaid programs are under extraordinary pressure as they navigate federal funding uncertainty, H.R. 1 implementation, and health care cost growth that consistently outpaces both inflation and state revenue growth. States have myriad technology vendors pitching solutions to help alleviate those burdens, particularly around helping drive down the costs associated with certain clinical conditions and administrative functions. These technology solutions, increasingly, are AI powered and promise to be the differentiator for patients and Medicaid budgets alike. It can be daunting for state Medicaid leaders to evaluate which technologies deliver, where there are risks, and the types of structural changes that are needed for innovation to benefit the people Medicaid serves rather than the vendors selling to it. In Episode 3 of The 80 Million Podcast, host and 80 Million editor Patti Boozang speaks with Caroline Pearson, executive director of the Peterson Health Technology Institute (PHTI), and Jared Augenstein, senior managing director at Manatt Health, about what Medicaid leaders should believe — and question — about the explosion of artificial intelligence (AI) and digital health solutions entering the market.

Hospital at Home – The Bed Isn’t the Business Model Anymore

Innovate or die: That’s the conversation health systems are having as they navigate tightening finances due to new federal policy in Medicaid, including H.R. 1, a national health care affordability crisis, rising patient acuity and a workforce depleted by burnout.  Hospital at Home may signal a paradigm shift among hospital systems driven by “losing less money.” That’s good news for Medicaid. 80 Million Editor Patti Boozang sat down with UMass Memorial Health CEO Dr. Eric Dickson and Manatt Health’s Tom Robertson to explore what real innovation looks like in a hard operating environment.

Medicaid is on the Brink. What’s at Risk?

Medicaid, which is jointly funded by states and the federal government, has always operated under pressure, but this moment feels different. The program is facing a unique period of change, defined by factors that are significant on their own but far more consequential together. Centrally, the 2025 health care cuts to Medicaid and beyond, to the tune of $1 trillion over the next decade, will add nearly 10 million people to the uninsured ranks. These cuts will also trigger state budget holes and new funding gaps for the nation’s health care safety net. The funding cuts are compounded by new administrative burdens [https://80million.substack.com/p/how-states-can-incorporate-human] for consumers because of new Medicaid work reporting requirements [https://80million.substack.com/p/the-clock-is-ticking-on-medicaid] and other red-tape hoops people will need to jump through to get and keep coverage. Paperwork is a tried-and-true method for reducing enrollment, undermining decades of bipartisan efforts to streamline enrollment while ensuring program integrity through data-driven verification of eligibility. State Medicaid agencies will also feel the pinch as they operate with steep new administrative costs and fewer resources, and health providers who continue to serve low-income populations will be faced with patients churning in and out of coverage and a rise in uncompensated care. The “old Medicaid rubric” doesn’t make sense anymore. It’s one that we’ve moved beyond for good reason through the Affordable Care Act expansion. The vast majority of Americans support and value their Medicaid coverage, including their expansion coverage [https://80million.substack.com/p/too-poor-for-affordable-health-insurance?utm_source=publication-search],  as vital to keeping their families safe, healthy and financially secure.