The KE Report

The KE Report

Nick Hodge – Messy Macro Factors, Navigating Bearish Metals Price Trends, Portfolio Management Strategies in Gold, Copper, Lithium, Rare Earths, and Uranium Stocks

33 min · Ayer
Portada del episodio Nick Hodge – Messy Macro Factors, Navigating Bearish Metals Price Trends, Portfolio Management Strategies in Gold, Copper, Lithium, Rare Earths, and Uranium Stocks

Descripción

Nick Hodge, Co-Owner of Digest Publishing and editor of Foundational Profits and Underground Alpha, joins us for our monthly longer-format discussion on assortment of messy macroeconomic factors, how he is navigating the bearish metals price trends, and portfolio management strategies in select gold, copper, lithium, rare earths, and uranium stocks.   We start off reviewing the mix of messy macroeconomic movers like: * Market effects from the rising US Dollar – over 100 and climbing * Rising short-term interest rates at the short-end of the yield curve due to Fed policy and Warsh’s meeting and press conference last week; contrasted against flattening rates at the long-end of the curve * Rising inflation readings, but wild fluctuations between monthly and quarterly trends * Knock-on effects from geopolitics and continued uncertainty around the US/Iran MOU and supposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Fluid situation causing increased volatility and impulsive reactions in both directions * Sovereign debt loads and how rising rates will pressure global governments * Capex investments in AI data-center build-outs are ongoing.      The majority of the macro news has been a headwind to the commodities sector, but it is a messy situation because there are positive tailwinds present at the same time.  We discussed the pullback in oil prices, in precious metals prices, and copper prices and how Nick is navigating these markets. * After touching the hot stove in a few instances, (after taking a nibble at the GDXJ only to see it fall a bit further), he is not interested in trying to pick a bottom or “catch the falling knife” in most commodities. * Nick would prefer to see a sustainable real low put in for each respective commodity, like the PMs or Oil or Copper, and for a new uptrend to assert itself before deploying any more new capital. * He is more than happy to have a certain portfolio weighting to cash to wait out any more near-term market corrections, and is willing to deploy more cash once the turn higher is more clear.   With regards to portfolio management, Nick is concentrating his portfolio into less positions and fortifying his highest conviction investment stories with compelling catalysts.  He is more likely to trim or sell positions that were picked up based on bullish metals price direction, or as a result of spinouts, or where he is not as confident on the assets or management teams.  He recommends investors take inventory of what they own, and the investment case for why they own it and only be in the higher conviction stories.   * Nick highlighted Gladiator Metals Corp. (TSXV: GLAD) (OTCQB: GDTRF) for copper, and Revival Gold Inc. (TSXV: RVG) (OTCQX: RVLGF) for gold as 2 positions he has held for some time in his portfolio that he is happy to hold through any more volatility and even add to in their weighting.  He points out that both companies have solid management teams and projects, and both still have a lot of drilling on tap for this season as a catalyst. * There are also gold stocks on his watchlist that are becoming more attractive during this ongoing sector correction, like Mayfair Gold Corp. (TSXV: MFG) (NYSE American: MINE), Tiernan Gold Corp. (TSXV : TNGD), or copper stocks like Amerigo Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARG) (OTCQX: ARREF) or Ero Copper Corp. (TSX: ERO, NYSE: ERO) that he is keeping a close eye on for a potential future position.   When reviewing where he is seeing the most strength in the commodities sector, Nick highlights the Critical Minerals as having been the most resilient. * He points out that the Global X Lithium and Battery ETF (NYSE: LIT) and lithium developers like Q2 Metals Corp. (TSX.V: QTWO) (OTCQB: QUEXF) and PMET Resources Inc. (TSX: PMET) (ASX: PMT) (OTCQX: PMETF) have held up better than most other metals or resource stocks. * Nick highlights the ongoing direct investment and policy initiatives into the rare earths processors, separators, recyclers, noting prior investments into USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR), MP Materials (NYSE: MP), or the news this week where Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU) (TSX: EFR) was approved for a $725 million financing commitment from the Department of War, U.S. Office of Strategic Capital, to support infrastructure and capacity to process rare earth elements and other critical materials. * Uranium and nuclear stocks have also been soft ever since the big move up in January, but Nick outlined the continued support from many sovereign nations to invest in both their nuclear infrastructure as well as uranium miners with projects of significance. * Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) announced yesterday a conditional commitment for a loan package of up to US$17.5 billion by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) to reenergize the large-scale nuclear reactor supply chain, drive down costs, and accelerate the deployment of AP1000 reactors in the US and globally.   Click here to follow Nick’s analysis and publications over at Digest Publishing [https://digestpublishing.com/publications/]     For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ [https://kereport.substack.com/] Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ [https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/]     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

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Portada del episodio Sierra Madre Gold and Silver – Q1 Operations and Financial Update At La Guitarra Mining Complex, Phase 1 Plant Expansion, 60k-80k Meters Of Drilling Between La Guitarra and Del Toro Properties

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver – Q1 Operations and Financial Update At La Guitarra Mining Complex, Phase 1 Plant Expansion, 60k-80k Meters Of Drilling Between La Guitarra and Del Toro Properties

Alex Langer, President and CEO of Sierra Madre Gold And Silver (TSXV: SM) (OTCQX: SMDRF), joins me to recap the Q1 operations and financial update at their La Guitarra silver-gold mine complex in Mexico, which includes 3 producing mines:  La Guitarra, Coloso, and Nazareno.   We look ahead to the 2-phase mill expansion and upcoming increased 30,000 meters of drilling planned across the La Guitarra property.  Additionally, we discussed the closing of the transaction for the Del Toro mining complex this week,  and the increased drill program to 30,000 - 50,000 meters of drilling at the property starting in the second half of this year.   Highlights * Revenues: Gross silver revenues for the quarter totalled $5.9 million ($85.14 per ounce) and gold revenues totalled $5.1 million ($4,906 per ounce). Silver revenues for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 ("Q1 2025") totalled $2.3 million ($31.13 per ounce) and gold revenues totalled $2.9 million ($2,828 per ounce). * Sales: In Q1 2026, the Company sold 69,006 ounces of silver ("Ag") and 1,038 ounces of gold ("Au") or 128,827 silver equivalent ("AgEq") ounces, based on the ratio of silver and gold prices realized for each shipment in the quarter. This compares to 75,137 ounces of Ag and 1,022 ounces of Au or 165,093 AgEq ounces sold in Q1 2025. * Cash Costs for the quarter were $42.55 per AgEq ounce produced, as compared to $33.63 per AgEq ounce produced in Q4 2025 and $22.51 in Q1 2025 due to a number of factors including the ramp up of operations at Coloso and Nazareno and inflationary pressures on our input costs, as detailed below. * Adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 million for Q1 2026 compares to $1.1 million for Q1 2025. * Cash from Operations: the Company generated $3.5 million of cash from operating activities in Q1 2026 as compared to $729 thousand in Q1 2025. * Gross Profit was $3.61 million for Q1 2026, as compared to $1.36 million for Q1 2025. * Cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments at March 31, 2026 totalled $13.2 million and working capital totalled $14.4 million. * Cost Drivers: Ramp-up and development activities at Coloso and Nazareno drove a significant share of the current production from off-book, out-of-resource, lower-grade material, which weighed on unit mining costs. Gold and silver recovery declines stemmed from feed blend optimization across the three mines, further pressuring costs.  * Coloso and Nazareno: Mining restarted at the higher-grade Coloso underground mine at the end of Q1 2025 (estimated resource grades at Coloso are significantly higher in both silver and gold compared to the Guitarra mine veins). In September 2025, Sierra Madre also announced the restart of mining at the Nazareno mine. The Company is focused on ramping up operations at Coloso and Nazareno ahead of the increased plant throughput levels anticipated upon completion of Phase I of the Guitarra expansion. * Phase I and II production targets: In late April, Sierra Madre selected a special services contractor to provide equipment and manpower to accelerate mine development at Coloso and Nazareno. The contractor began mobilization to site in early May. Once the contractor is in place, the Company will be able to transfer its miners and equipment to the Guitarra mine to accelerate production. * Expansion Progress: For the two-phase expansion of the La Guitarra plant, Sierra Madre has acquired key equipment— including a second crusher (tested and installed) and a 600-700 tpd ball mill, now refurbished and under contract for installation, with commissioning expected in late Q2 2026. Construction crews for the ball mill foundation work have been mobilized to site and the purchase of critical equipment has begun. * Once the first stage of the expansion is completed, the planned second phase would increase processing capacity to a range of 1,200 tpd to 1,500 tpd by Q3 2027; essentially doubling production capacity once again.   Beyond the production growth, we also focus on the substantial exploration programs planned for the 2nd half of this year both district-scale land packages.   * There are 30,000 meters of drilling planned at the La Guitarra complex; and Alex points out that having their own assay lab should allow the company to quickly react to incoming assays at La Guitarra, going from 20 holes, to 40 holes, and then eventually 80 holes. * Now that the acquisition of the Del Toro Silver Mine complex in the Chalchihuites District in Mexico from First Majestic Silver Corp. has closed, there is a 50,000 meter drill program on tap. The goal of this program will be testing a number of high-priority targets and growing existing resources to extend the mine life for when a restart decision is made on these 3 mines and the 3,000 tpd plant.   If you have any questions for Alex regarding Sierra Madre Gold and Silver, then please email them to me at either Shad@kereport.com.   * In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of Sierra Madre Gold and Silver and may choose to buy or sell shares at any time.   Click here to follow along with the latest news from Sierra Madre Gold & Silver [https://sierramadregoldandsilver.com/news]     For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ [https://kereport.substack.com/] Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ [https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/]     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Ayer17 min
Portada del episodio Nick Hodge – Messy Macro Factors, Navigating Bearish Metals Price Trends, Portfolio Management Strategies in Gold, Copper, Lithium, Rare Earths, and Uranium Stocks

Nick Hodge – Messy Macro Factors, Navigating Bearish Metals Price Trends, Portfolio Management Strategies in Gold, Copper, Lithium, Rare Earths, and Uranium Stocks

Nick Hodge, Co-Owner of Digest Publishing and editor of Foundational Profits and Underground Alpha, joins us for our monthly longer-format discussion on assortment of messy macroeconomic factors, how he is navigating the bearish metals price trends, and portfolio management strategies in select gold, copper, lithium, rare earths, and uranium stocks.   We start off reviewing the mix of messy macroeconomic movers like: * Market effects from the rising US Dollar – over 100 and climbing * Rising short-term interest rates at the short-end of the yield curve due to Fed policy and Warsh’s meeting and press conference last week; contrasted against flattening rates at the long-end of the curve * Rising inflation readings, but wild fluctuations between monthly and quarterly trends * Knock-on effects from geopolitics and continued uncertainty around the US/Iran MOU and supposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Fluid situation causing increased volatility and impulsive reactions in both directions * Sovereign debt loads and how rising rates will pressure global governments * Capex investments in AI data-center build-outs are ongoing.      The majority of the macro news has been a headwind to the commodities sector, but it is a messy situation because there are positive tailwinds present at the same time.  We discussed the pullback in oil prices, in precious metals prices, and copper prices and how Nick is navigating these markets. * After touching the hot stove in a few instances, (after taking a nibble at the GDXJ only to see it fall a bit further), he is not interested in trying to pick a bottom or “catch the falling knife” in most commodities. * Nick would prefer to see a sustainable real low put in for each respective commodity, like the PMs or Oil or Copper, and for a new uptrend to assert itself before deploying any more new capital. * He is more than happy to have a certain portfolio weighting to cash to wait out any more near-term market corrections, and is willing to deploy more cash once the turn higher is more clear.   With regards to portfolio management, Nick is concentrating his portfolio into less positions and fortifying his highest conviction investment stories with compelling catalysts.  He is more likely to trim or sell positions that were picked up based on bullish metals price direction, or as a result of spinouts, or where he is not as confident on the assets or management teams.  He recommends investors take inventory of what they own, and the investment case for why they own it and only be in the higher conviction stories.   * Nick highlighted Gladiator Metals Corp. (TSXV: GLAD) (OTCQB: GDTRF) for copper, and Revival Gold Inc. (TSXV: RVG) (OTCQX: RVLGF) for gold as 2 positions he has held for some time in his portfolio that he is happy to hold through any more volatility and even add to in their weighting.  He points out that both companies have solid management teams and projects, and both still have a lot of drilling on tap for this season as a catalyst. * There are also gold stocks on his watchlist that are becoming more attractive during this ongoing sector correction, like Mayfair Gold Corp. (TSXV: MFG) (NYSE American: MINE), Tiernan Gold Corp. (TSXV : TNGD), or copper stocks like Amerigo Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARG) (OTCQX: ARREF) or Ero Copper Corp. (TSX: ERO, NYSE: ERO) that he is keeping a close eye on for a potential future position.   When reviewing where he is seeing the most strength in the commodities sector, Nick highlights the Critical Minerals as having been the most resilient. * He points out that the Global X Lithium and Battery ETF (NYSE: LIT) and lithium developers like Q2 Metals Corp. (TSX.V: QTWO) (OTCQB: QUEXF) and PMET Resources Inc. (TSX: PMET) (ASX: PMT) (OTCQX: PMETF) have held up better than most other metals or resource stocks. * Nick highlights the ongoing direct investment and policy initiatives into the rare earths processors, separators, recyclers, noting prior investments into USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR), MP Materials (NYSE: MP), or the news this week where Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU) (TSX: EFR) was approved for a $725 million financing commitment from the Department of War, U.S. Office of Strategic Capital, to support infrastructure and capacity to process rare earth elements and other critical materials. * Uranium and nuclear stocks have also been soft ever since the big move up in January, but Nick outlined the continued support from many sovereign nations to invest in both their nuclear infrastructure as well as uranium miners with projects of significance. * Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) announced yesterday a conditional commitment for a loan package of up to US$17.5 billion by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) to reenergize the large-scale nuclear reactor supply chain, drive down costs, and accelerate the deployment of AP1000 reactors in the US and globally.   Click here to follow Nick’s analysis and publications over at Digest Publishing [https://digestpublishing.com/publications/]     For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ [https://kereport.substack.com/] Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ [https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/]     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Ayer33 min
Portada del episodio Justin Huhn – Part 6 Of Nuclear Fuels Demand And Supply Factors – Pro Tips On Investing In Uranium Stocks

Justin Huhn – Part 6 Of Nuclear Fuels Demand And Supply Factors – Pro Tips On Investing In Uranium Stocks

Justin Huhn, Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider, joins me for yet another very comprehensive macro update on the supply and demand fundamentals for uranium and the nuclear fuel sector.  Justin provides some boots-on-the-ground feedback, after just recently attending the  WNFM 52nd Annual Meeting and International Conference on Nuclear Fuel in Scottsdale, Arizona. We discuss primary versus secondary demand, how the longer-term contracting cycle is setting up with utility companies, different bottlenecks in the nuclear fuel cycle, and how he is positioning in the uranium equities that feed the front-end of that supply chain.   * This is a longer-format discussion building upon our prior conversations throughout 2024 and 2025, because even more key macro news and company developments continue to be announced in the nuclear and uranium sector.   We start off reviewing the Primary Demand drivers for uranium from the existing global fleet of nuclear reactors, which is augmented by the many reactor life extensions and restarts, as well as all the new reactors coming online over the next decade that are under construction or planned.  The investing case for uranium bulls is compelling even with conservative modeling on this primary demand out for the next 5-10 years.   Next we layer on the various aspects of Secondary Demand that are harder to model,  but will definitely have an additive effect on overall global uranium demand:   * Financial demand from entities like the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, Yellowcake, hedge funds, institutional buyers, etc… * Sovereign stockpiles and strategic reserves * Utility companies inventory stockpiles * Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) demand * Military demand   Next we transition over the supply side of the equation focusing on the uranium mining companies. We’ve seen a flurry of news the last couple years out of the U308 producers, many of which have been struggling to ramp up production. * Justin unpacks his outlook on mined supply from Kazatomprom, the largest uranium swing producer in Kazakhstan, the slow ramp up of Uzbekistan production, missed guidance last year from Canadian senior uranium producer Cameco (CCO.V) (CCJ), and the slow but steady ramp up of US producers. * Each country and the producing entities have had a series of setbacks and challenges to hit their annual guidance, which has kept supply and inventories tight.     Next we point out that large development projects in the Athabasca Basin of Canada, like the Phoenix Project held by Denison Mines (TSX: DML) (NYSE: DNN), and in specific the importance of the Arrow Project from NexGen Energy (TSX: NXE) (NYSE: NXE), seeing their production timelines get pushed back to 2030 or later. There is very little new supply coming online globally, with the exception of some smaller production out of the US, Namibia, and Australian producers. All of this points to a much more constrained output from global uranium producers, even in face of growing uranium demand.   Justin weighs in on the importance of seeing more developers and explorers move their projects forward, and that the exploration stocks in particular have been left for dead by investors and represent compelling value propositions in this current environment.   Wrapping up we discuss the utility and diversification with some of the sector ETFs like (URA), (URNM), (URNJ), and (NUKZ), and the interesting potential buy-the-dip moment in the nuclear stocks, while the markets are quiet with less speculative participation.   Click here to visit the Uranium Insider website. [https://www.uraniuminsider.com/]     For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ [https://kereport.substack.com/] Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ [https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/]     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

24 de jun de 202646 min
Portada del episodio AbraSilver Resource – Key Takeaways From Definitive Feasibility Study and Future Value Drivers Progressing Forward With The Development Of Diablillos

AbraSilver Resource – Key Takeaways From Definitive Feasibility Study and Future Value Drivers Progressing Forward With The Development Of Diablillos

John Miniotis, President and CEO of AbraSilver Resource Corp (TSX: ABRA) (OTCQX: ABBRF), joins me to review the news out June 22nd, announcing the updated project economics in the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS) on the Company’s wholly owned Diablillos property in Argentina.  We look at the multiple value levers the company has to pull on for a rerating to higher once the upcoming Phase 2 economics study incorporates the heap leach or higher throughput rates, in addition to all exploration and resource expansion potential and even just the upside present if rerated higher to peer comparable metrics.   In May the company released an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”), which demonstrated significant growth across the Project, with Measured & Indicated (“M&I”) resources now totaling 232 million tonnes (“Mt”), containing approximately 248 million ounces (“Moz”) of silver and 2.54 Moz of gold (454 Moz silver-equivalent “AgEq”). For the first time ever, the DFS released this week includes the Project reserves as proven and probable ounces. * Increased Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves of 77.9 Mt grading 146 g/t Ag Eq, containing 183 Moz Ag and 1.8 Moz Au (366 Moz AgEq), estimated from an open pit optimized using metal prices of $29.50/oz Ag and $2,800/oz Au.   The DFS positions Diablillos as one of the world's premier undeveloped silver-gold projects, based on a stand-alone 9,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) processing operation that delivers robust economics, high early production levels and low operating costs.   DFS Study Highlights: * After-tax NPV5% of $3.0 billion (CAD$ 4.2 billion), 41.9% IRR and 1.7-year payback at base-case metal prices. * At spot prices1, after-tax NPV5% increases to $4.8 billion (CAD$6.7 billion) with an IRR of 56.5% and payback of 1.4 years. * Average annual production of 20 Moz silver equivalent (“AgEq”) during the first five years of full mine production, comprised of 14 Moz Ag and 89 koz Au; * Average life-of-mine (“LOM”) annual production of 10 Moz AgEq, comprised of 5.9 Moz Ag and 62 koz Au over a 25-year life of mine (“LOM”). * Low All-in Sustaining Cash Costs (“AISC”)2 of $20/oz AgEq over the LOM – positioning Diablillos among the lowest-cost primary silver projects globally.  * Initial capital expenditures of $722 million (including $98 million contingency) with subsequent sustaining capital of $520 million funded through operating cash flow.  * Compelling after-tax NPV-to-Capex ratio of 4.2x, highlighting the Project’s robust project economics and strong value generation potential. * Increased Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves of 77.9 Mt grading 146 g/t Ag Eq, containing 183 Moz Ag and 1.8 Moz Au (366 Moz AgEq), estimated from an open pit optimized using metal prices of $29.50/oz Ag and $2,800/oz Au. * First production targeted before year-end 2029, subject to a final investment decision (“FID”) expected in Q2 2027. * Multiple opportunities exist to further enhance Project value beyond the DFS, including: * A Phase 2 heap leach expansion to process lower grade mineralized material that would provide incremental gold and silver production, with results from a Preliminary Economic Assessment (the “Heap Leach PEA”) expected before the end of June 2026; * Potential future plant throughput expansion to increase annual silver and gold production; and * Continued exploration success across the broader Diablillos district * Enhanced TSF incorporates a downstream waste rock buttress design, to eliminate credible failure risk while reducing haulage costs and dust generation. * Grid power connection planned in Year 3, reducing both operating costs and carbon emissions.    * The Compnay has already received approval of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)  {“Declaración de Impacto Ambiental” or “DIA”} from the Government of Salta Province in Argentina, and should have the final permit approved from the Catamarca Province imminently.   Click here to visit the AbraSilver website and read over the most recent news releases. [https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/]      If you have any follow up questions for John regarding at AbraSilver, then please email them into me at Shad@kereport.com [Shad@kereport.com].   * In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of AbraSilver Resource Corp at the time of this recording and may choose to buy or sell more shares at any time.     For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ [https://kereport.substack.com/] Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ [https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/]     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

24 de jun de 202624 min
Portada del episodio Craig Hemke – Unusual Intra-day Swings In Gold and Silver Since Last Week In This Post-war and Post-Fed Meeting Environment

Craig Hemke – Unusual Intra-day Swings In Gold and Silver Since Last Week In This Post-war and Post-Fed Meeting Environment

In this Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, Founder and Publisher of the TF Metals Report, joins me to analyze the unusual intra-day swings in the precious metals market ever since the signing of the US/Iran MOU ending the war, and since Kevin Warsh chaired his first FED meeting and addressed the markets last week.   In this episode, we cover:   * Technical Levels to Watch:   * * Craig comments on the break-down in gold and silver below the 200-day moving average, resulting in weakening pricing momentum. * This is creating the potential for gold to dip below it’s double bottom around $4,100 and silver to retest or dip below its double bottom around $61.   * Even if gold breaks below $4,000 into the mid $3,000s or if Silver breaks $61 and heads down to the $54 support level from last falls “double-top,” Craig points out that still would not invalidate the larger bull market trend of the last few years. * He points out we may need that last capitulation move this summer to wash out any remaining weak hands, and to then base and bring in the new buyers that cause shorts to cover and begin a new upleg. * We review again the very low “open interest” levels on the COT report, and how this lower level of market participation can cause unusual intra-day price swings in both directions.   * Kevin Warsh’s First Fed Meeting and Press Conference:   * * We contrasted the outlook and approach Kevin Warsh outlined last week versus the approach to data collection and forecasting that his predecessor Jerome Powell had taken. * The markets took Warsh’s comments "this committee will deliver price stability,"  to be a hawkish hold, since he indicated focusing on the higher inflation readings. * The Fed funds futures are now anticipating 1-2 rate hikes this year versus the initially market anticipated rate cuts, coming into this year.   * The Macroeconomic Fundamentals Haven’t Changed:   * * Sovereign debt remains at record levels and most nations can not endure interest rates that go up to drastically. * Throughout history, central banks have opted for printing more money and driving interest rates meaningfully lower, to inflate their way out of economic challenges, and to pay off higher interest debt with lower-rate debt.  * Even if we see some initial hawkish rate hikes, Craigs doesn’t anticipate that we’d have long to wait after that before monetary policy adjusts course in the opposite direction, in a more dovish playbook. * Overall, central banks continue to add gold to their balance sheets versus adding more US or foreign treasuries. * We also noted that many individuals and financial institutions have been rotating some of their bond holdings into the precious metals complex. * All that really changed over the last few months was the black swan of a war in the Middle East; and now that it appears to be winding down, we'll see if the prior pre-war trends reassert themselves over the fullness of time.   Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/ [https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/]   For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ [https://kereport.substack.com/] Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ [https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/]     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

22 de jun de 202619 min