Valuation is a thermometer, not a clock

Valuation is a thermometer, not a clock

Astronomers predicted the April 2024 solar eclipse to the second. Not one of them can tell you what the S&P 500 will do next Tuesday. That gap, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, is the point. Right now, the CAPE ratio, a widely followed measure that compares the total value of the U.S. stock market against the size of the U.S. economy, is at an all-time high, and the headlines are getting louder. Philip explains why that number is less alarming than it sounds, why measures like this are reliable guides for long-term returns but almost useless when predicting short-term market movements, and what valuation is genuinely useful for.

Five market insights, one podcast

This week, a different format. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, runs through five market insights in one episode: why earnings expectations are the highest they've been in years; what June's soft inflation statistic does and doesn't tell us; why roughly four in ten S&P 500 stocks were down 20% or more from their highs, even as the index hit records; why the calendar gets tougher from here; and why record profit margins raise the bar for everything that follows. One thread ties it all together: expectations are high everywhere you look, and the next two months will tell us whether reality can clear them.

The perfect predictability of unpredictability

Nobody's bracket survives the World Cup. And nobody's market thesis survived the first half of 2026 either, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. All seven Magnificent Seven stocks are trailing the S&P 500 at the halfway mark, while emerging markets and Canada have been the tournament's surprise winners. He explains what changed with the tariff shock of April 2025, why favourites are still good teams but not a plan on their own and why owning the whole field is the only strategy that keeps you in every round.

2026 update: a tale of two markets

The headlines in the first half of 2026 were loud: a war in Iran, oil above $100 a barrel, inflation concerns and a weakening consumer. None of it was enough to derail markets, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. He breaks down the earnings and economic backdrop that drove returns across U.S., Canadian and international equities, explains why Canada and the U.S. are now heading in opposite directions on interest rates, and makes the case that any volatility in the second half of 2026 may turn out to be an opportunity.

What's weighing on the Canadian dollar?

While investors were focused elsewhere, the Canadian dollar quietly fell almost 5% against the U.S. dollar over the past two months. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, explains the two forces driving that weakness: falling oil prices and a widening gap between Canadian and U.S. interest rates. With the Bank of Canada likely to shift its focus from inflation to a slowing economy, and the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise rates further, his view is that the pressure on the loonie may not be over.