Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

A 24 Hour Geopolitical News Cycle

Episode 77 covers a wide range of topics on the geopolitical landscape including the recent assassination attempt on President Trump, the implications on global energy markets of UAE's decision to exit OPEC and which person is leading Iran in negotiations with the United States. Frank discusses the stalemate and war of attrition that is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is a win for Ukraine and the impact on populist governments of the shocking defeat by authoritarian leader Victor Orban in Hungary. The conversation turns to Canada where Frank discusses Carney's back door into a majority and how it will change calculus for the Liberal leader's policymaking and CUSMA negotiation strategy. He finishes with analysis of Prime Minister Carney's recent announcements of a new Sovereign Wealth Fund and an upcoming Federal Government-led global investment Summit planned for Toronto in September, both positive developments for Canada.   This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2026   Chapter Headings   00:48 - President Trump Assassination Attempt 05:58 - Who is Negotiating on Behalf of Iran? 11:25 - UAE Leaves OPEC 13:38 - Ukraine's Move to Back Pages Masks Recent War Successes 17:41 - What Orban's Loss Means for Populist Leaders? 30:35 - Carney Replies to Greer's Threats Ahead of CUSMA Talks 32:22 - Explaining Canada's New Sovereign Wealth Fund 36:46 - Recent Investment Wins for Carney Puts Approval Process in Spotlight For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Trump's Iran Conundrum

In Episode 76, Frank ponders the potential outcomes of the War in Iran and its impact on other global geopolitical events. He believes that despite a wide bid-ask spread in peace negotiations between Iran and the US that the Trump Administration will find a peaceful end to hostilities in the near future. Complicating matters in this war are different goals for the two protagonists, The US and Israel, one of which has to live next door to a now angry Iranian regime. Frank is not surprised by Iran's tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, nor the lack of support for military escorts from NATO allies. One certainty is the impact of the war on energy prices and, in turn, broader inflation trends in the US is going to be negative for Trump and the Republicans at mid-term elections in November.  We finish the dialogue back home in Canada, where citizens of the Province of Alberta are expected to hold a vote on secession from Canada later this year, an unfortunate distraction for Albertans and Canadians at a time of so much other geopolitical noise. Despite this unwanted noise and limited likelihood of success in the first secession attempt, Canadians would be remiss if we simply ignored this Alberta secession vote as noise; just ask citizens of the UK who didn’t take Brexit seriously until it was too late.   This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026   Chapter Headings:   01:47 - The Goal of War with Iran 08:18 - Narrowing the Bid-Ask Spread on Peace Negotiations 12:57 - Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz 16:31 - Trump's Tries to Hold His Base 19:45 - The Future of NATO 27:19 - China's Quiet Positioning 35:05 - Higher Energy Prices – Impact on Mid-Terms 37:31 - Save America Act 43:11 - Alberta Secession Talk 55:57 - Frank's Two Favorite Words "Opening Day For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Tariff Debate Takes Centre Stage

What if Cuba became a territory of Canada? What if Justice Alito suddenly retired this summer? These are just two of Frank's more provocative thoughts in this month's episode of Geopolitics. Frank also addresses the "monumental" Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, Trump's pivot to Section 122 flat tariffs and Jameson Greer's suggestion that Canada needs to accept some tariff level as part of CUSMA negotiations, a point Frank pushes back on given it defeats the notion of a "free trade agreement." He also discusses the prospect of US military action in Iran, the latest on Venezuela and the possible revitalization of Keystone XL.   This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2026   Chapter Headings:   01:36 - Frank's Musings on Supreme Court Changes and a Solution for Cuba 10:39 - Supreme Court Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs and Trump's Pivot to 122 18:08 - Does Canada Have to Accept Tariffs in a renewed CUSMA? 23:52 - Trump's Plan to Replace Income Tax with Tariff Revenues 27:26 - Will Trump Attack Iran? 33:34 - The Latest in Venezuela 35:27 - South Bow Discusses Revitalizing Keystone XL   For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Is Chaos a Distraction?

Two weeks have passed since Frank last spoke to listeners. Since then, it has been chaos in global geopolitical circles, with Frank wondering whether some of this noise is meant to distract from issues the US Administration would prefer to take a back seat in the current news cycle. Trump's consistent musings about owning Greenland have become a major escalation of geopolitical risk, and Frank worries that it is at this juncture in cross-border disputes when mistakes happen, someone says or does the wrong thing, and a situation destabilizes. He is hopeful that cooler heads prevail, and an off ramp can be found in Davos. Frank still wonders why the US Administration claims it needs Greenland, asking "why buy the cow when you already get the milk for free?" This month's podcast also covers tariffs, Iran, Minnesota, Venezuela, the Board of Peace, the Munroe Doctrine, Canada's China pivot, Legault's resignation in Quebec, Powell's Fed Indictment, populist market interventions by Trump and Prime Minister Carney's "sobering" speech to the World Economic Forum.   This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2026   Chapter Headings: 01:10    US vs NATO on Greenland 06:04    Study Confirms Cost of Tariffs Borne by US Consumer 10:37    Jawboning The Supreme Court Over Tariffs 13:30    Carney's Sobering Speech in Davos 15:19    Trump Rhetoric over Greenland Eerily Similar to Putin and Ukraine 18:17    Iranian Military Quells Uprising 20:20    Two Weeks Later – What Lies Ahead for Venezuela 23:48    Trump's Alternative to the UN – A So-Called "Board of Peace" 27:14    Listener Mailbag – MAGA Supporter Asks Frank about Munroe Doctrine 35:38    Trump's Populist Marketplace Interventions 37:54    ICE and Minnesota 40:10    Powell and Fed Independence 41:40    Legault Resignation Throws Open Quebec's Leadership Race For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Impact of Nicolas Maduro's Arrest on Geopolitics in the Western Hemisphere

Episode 73 of Geopolitics is a special episode in which Frank discusses the implications for global geopolitics of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Frank discusses backlash in Washington of the decision to arrest Maduro without Congressional authority, what it means for possible next moves for the United States as it flexes its military muscle in the Western Hemisphere for both Venezuelan neighbors but also Greenland and Canada. In addition, he ponders the potential that the Maduro move spawns global spheres of influence as the US implements its National Security Strategy (coined by President Trump as "the Donroe Document." For Canadians, Frank discusses implications of this geopolitical theatre for Canada's energy sector and whether a new pipeline to tidewater is more or less feasible today than last week and whether the prospect of growth in Venezuelan heavy oil production truly provides US leverage in upcoming CUSMA negotiations.   This podcast was recorded on January 7, 2026   Chapter Headings:   01:10 - The Capture of Maduro – US Motivation and Next Day Plans 06:38 - Trump Chooses Incumbent over Nobel Prize Winning Opponent 12:54 - Rebuilding Venezuela's Oil Infrastructure 17:32 - Spheres of Influence – Where Does Canada Stand? 29:54 - Sleeping With One Eye Open – Will Trump Follow Through on Saber Rattling? 37:38 - Mark Wiseman's Chops as Ambassador 39:18 - Implications for Canada's Energy Sector For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure [https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure]. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.