Inside Prediction Markets

Matt Kalish Crashes Out + 4casters Zach on the Future of Prediction Markets

Matt Kalish — co-founder of DraftKings — had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle. Sporttrade suspends OSB operations and Polymarket and Nasdaq announce perpetual contracts on individual stocks, which raises the obvious question: is this just an option with a different name?Then Zach from 4casters joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. 4casters has been quietly doubling year over year since 2021, approaching a billion in volume, and remains one of the only sharp-on-sharp exchanges in the space. Zach breaks down how that model actually sustains itself, why he's not rushing to become the twenty-fifth prediction market, what he really thinks the regulatory coin flip looks like over the next two years, and whether Polymarket USA just gets boxed out entirely if Novig gets to market first.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Matt Kalish Crashes Out on Twitter4:39 – Sporttrade Suspends OSB6:27 – Polymarket and Nasdaq Announce Stock Perps8:30 – Introducing Zach From 4casters11:00 – From Telegram Group Chat to a Billion in Volume19:00 – Navigating Fees24:00 – Novig Boxing Out Polymarket USA34:00 – Prediction Markets Teach Humility?35:02 – Zach's Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

The Insider's Guide to Market Making on Prediction Markets

What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to book sharp flow or whether they've just never been tested, and why price discovery on prediction markets might quietly be forcing a fairer game for everyone.Chris and Henry cover the full picture: how market makers make money, why it's harder than it looks, the difference between a market maker and a sharp, why you could be trading against Joe from the deli and not even know it, and what it actually takes to level up in a zero sum game where the sportsbook model would just kick you out. One of the more educational episodes the show has done — and a good one to send to anyone who keeps asking you to explain what you do.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Market Making3:00 – Can Sportsbooks Actually Book Sharp Flow?5:00 – What Is Market Making?10:00 – How Market Makers Earn16:00 – The Difference Between a Market Maker and a Sharp22:00 – Are You Really Betting Against Joe from the Deli?30:00 – Are Prediction Markets Peer to Peer?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange

Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons. Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant liquidity providers on prediction markets today — in both crypto binaries and sports. He breaks down his thesis that every market is effectively the same if you understand order books, how he made most of his early sports PNL in the first two months with zero competition, the wildest manipulation story you'll hear this year, and the most expensive bugs that have cost him. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – Ghost Orders 2:00 – PM CMO Caught on Live Stream 4:20 – PM Oracle Contraversy 7:40 – Max Shen-Molesky Joins the Show 15:00 – Where Max Makes His Money 18:30 – Can You Manipulate Crypto Binary Markets? 24:00 – Why Every Market Is the Same 35:00 – The Strategy That Keeps Winning 51:00 – Most Expensive Mistake #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

The Maduro Insider Trading Scandal and Shipper on How Sharps Actually Win

A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation — and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn't done on a CFTC-regulated platform, but it still matters: the system is starting to work, Trump is calling the world a casino, and the CFTC commissioner is putting more regulation on the table. Then Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. He's one of the most respected minds in sports betting Twitter and brings a rare perspective — someone who has sat on both sides of the market. The conversation covers how he thinks about information sharing, what it was like switching from bookmaker to bettor and how sharps like him are actually approaching prediction markets right now. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – The Soldier Who Bet $400K on Maduro 2:30 – Trump Calls the World a Casino 3:00 – A Major Platform Lobbies the CFTC 5:05 – Introducing Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) 6:00 – From New Zealand Bookmaker to Full-Time Sharp Bettor 14:00 – Getting Picked Off on Injury News 20:00 – How Sharps Are Approaching Prediction Markets 28:00 – The Viral Half Million Contract Order 38:00 – How Much of His PNL Is on PMs 48:27 – The Most Expensive Lesson Shipper Has Learned #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

The Insider's Guide to Getting Hired at a Prediction Market

Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired by pitching a vision the company didn't even know it needed yet — and why both paths have one thing in common: initiative.From there it's a full insider breakdown: the org chart of a prediction market company, what each department actually looks for, the honest truth about originators (most people who think they are one, aren't), what makes a great trader vs. a great engineer in this space, and why dev relations might be the most underrated open door in the entire industry right now.The second half is a live mock interview — Henry puts Chris in the hot seat with real questions he uses to evaluate trading candidates, walking through position sizing, adverse selection, tick width, and how to think about the relationship between a market maker and an exchange. If you're trying to break into prediction markets, this is the episode.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – How Chris Got His Job at Novig3:40 – How Henry Got His Job at Novig6:30 – The #1 Piece of Advice for Breaking In8:50 – The Org Chart Explained14:00 – What Engineers Need to Know22:35 – The Hard Truth About Originators26:50 – What Is a Trader, Actually?28:35 – The Mock Interview38:29 – Position Sizing and Adverse Selection46:42 – Novig Is Hiring#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting