Good Returns

Oil Crashed, the Fed Changed Its Language, and the Biggest IPO in History Just Happened

Oil fell 13% on a ceasefire framework announcement. Kevin Warsh held his first Fed press conference and signaled the end of the dot plot era. SpaceX completed the largest IPO in recorded history. And this morning, the ceasefire framework was paused as Israel continued bombing Lebanon and Iran disputed the terms. Matt and Garrett recorded this episode in real time — covering the week honestly, including the complication that arrived before the mics went on. The Fed conversation is the centerpiece: what just changed, why the bond market's signal matters more than the hawkish headline, and why Matt's Greenspan comparison from months ago just got confirmed. In the Planning Room: how to think about IPOs — and the dollar cost averaging approach Matt and Garrett actually use with clients who want exposure to newly public companies. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

Your Portfolio Is Down. Here's Exactly What To Do — And What Not To.

Two bumpy weeks to start June, inflation at a three-year high, and a Fed meeting next week that could set the direction for the rest of 2026. Matt and Garrett dig into what's actually happening beneath the headlines — including why the pullback is narrower than it looks and why the inflation number is more nuanced than the headline suggests. The Planning Room this week is one of the most practical conversations they've had: what to actually do when your portfolio drops. The behavioral trap, the framework for deciding whether to act, and the one productive move worth making. Don't miss next week either — Warsh's first Fed press conference. Full breakdown coming. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

The Market Hit Records Again. So Why Doesn't Your Portfolio Feel Like It?

The S&P 500 returned 5.3% in May. Strip out technology and the rest of the index was slightly negative. The equal-weight version of the same 500 companies returned 2% to 3%. The gap between the headline number and what most portfolios actually experienced was one of the widest in recent memory — and it tells you something important about the rally we're in. Matt and Garrett get into what's driving it, what it means for investors, and whether the strength you're seeing in the headlines is as broad as it looks. Plus the strongest earnings season since 2021, a consumer warning sign worth paying attention to, and the honest bull and bear cases for June. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

Is Stagflation Coming — And Should You Refinance Before Yields Move Again?

Nine consecutive weeks of gains and all-time highs across the board — but GDP was revised down to 1.6% and PCE inflation hit a three-year high on the same morning. The word stagflation showed up. Matt and Garrett take it seriously without catastrophizing it. Matt's thesis that oil drives the inflation story got some vindication this week as yields reversed lower alongside falling oil prices. Garrett acknowledges it while keeping the honest caveat in place: the ceasefire is still contested. In the Planning Room: yields just fell and mortgage rates moved with them. Here's the actual math framework for deciding whether to refinance — and why this moment might be worth a conversation with your lender. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

Is the Bond Side of Your Portfolio Working Against You Right Now?

Eight consecutive weeks of gains. Treasury yields at near two-decade highs, the Fed explicitly putting rate hikes on the table, and Nvidia reporting $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue — up 85% year over year. The equity market is proving more resilient than the backdrop suggests. Matt is holding his thesis that rates are heading lower eventually. Garrett isn't so sure about the timeline. They find common ground in the Planning Room — where the question isn't about stocks at all, but about whether the bond side of a balanced portfolio is doing what investors think it's doing. In the Planning Room: the 60/40 portfolio, what happened to bonds in 2022, and whether the current setup is asking the same uncomfortable question again. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.