Zephyr's Adjusted for Risk

Why 2026 Is A "Prove It" Year for Many AI Stocks

Recorded at the Exchange ETF Conference in Las Vegas, host Ryan Nauman welcomes Sal Esposito, Head of ETFs at Zacks Investment Management, to discuss why market leadership driven by mega-cap tech and AI is shifting back toward fundamentals. Esposito explains Zacks’ disciplined process focused on earnings, analyst estimate revisions, and balance sheets, calling 2026 a “prove it” year for AI as investors look under the hood for real results. They cover how Zacks applies its Zacks Indicator model across products, why active management can add value in small/mid caps and international equities, and how geopolitical uncertainty and interest-rate expectations can affect market breadth and international performance. Esposito also shares updates on Zacks’ growing ETF lineup, including international exposure. Zephyr can help financial advisors locate the best ETF strategies for their clients. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/manager-screening/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about Zacks Investment Management here [https://www.zacksim.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome and Disclosures 00:38 Live From ETF Conference 01:37 Meet Sal Esposito 02:04 Zacks ETF Growth Story 03:05 AI Hype vs Fundamentals 04:30 Prove It Year for AI 08:05 Earnings Driven Process 10:42 International ETF Expansion 12:21 Small Mid Cap Active Edge 16:08 International Outlook 2026 19:37 Active Defense in Downturns 20:30 Where to Learn More 20:46 Closing and Subscribe Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryannauman1/ ] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

Rethinking Bonds: Bonds Carry More Risk Than Stocks in Next 2 - 3 Years

Ryan Nauman hosts Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk Podcast with guest Edison Byzyka, Chief Investment Officer of Credent Wealth Management, a $4.5B fee-only RIA headquartered in northeast Indiana. They discuss today’s macro uncertainty (Iran conflict, oil, inflation) while emphasizing skepticism and reliance on data such as economic surprise indices, forward inflation expectations, labor resilience, and high-yield spreads that don’t signal major distress. Byzyka explains how Credent defines risk primarily as drawdowns rather than benchmark-relative volatility, aiming for positive risk-adjusted returns over three-year cycles including tax and accounting alpha. He highlights key current risks: difficulty monetizing AI-related capex and lofty forward earnings expectations in mega-cap AI names, which may pressure market-cap-weighted indices and favor equal weight. They cover valuation implications for five-year returns, question fixed income’s stabilizing role, and describe using structured notes and selective constituent selection to mitigate downside while maintaining upside participation, concluding that active management and partial illiquidity may become more important in portfolio construction. Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/asset-allocation/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about Credent Wealth Management here [https://credentwealth.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast 01:13 Meet Edison Byzyka 01:32 Credent Wealth Overview 03:51 Big Ten Sports Banter 06:03 Macro Uncertainty Check 10:40 Markets vs the Headlines 11:46 Defining Investment Risk 16:05 Biggest Risks Right Now 19:08 AI Capex and ROI Questions 20:20 AI Risks And Rotation 21:14 Advisor Focus And Flows 23:21 Mitigating With Selection 25:12 Structured Notes Surge 29:21 Valuations And Equal Weight 32:21 Rethinking Fixed Income 35:36 Bond Alternatives With Notes 37:37 Portfolio Construction Outlook 39:24 Closing And Resources Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [about:blank] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

Where to Find Portfolio Stability During Market Uncertainty?

From Lake Tahoe on Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk Podcast, host Ryan welcomes back Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium ETFs, to discuss row crop investing and how corn, soybeans, wheat, and sugar can impact portfolios. Gilbertie explains how energy and fertilizer costs—especially amid Middle East conflict and potential LNG disruptions—affect crop economics and planting decisions, and why grains often trade near cost of production with historically limited downside at breakeven levels (corn around $4, trading near $4.40). He outlines the “golden grain cycle” (breakeven, disruption-driven spike, then replanting and normalization), notes steady long-term global demand, and describes grains’ diversification benefits, citing an agricultural index that outperformed the S&P 500 during multiple drawdowns. He also explains sugar’s volatility via Brazil’s ethanol-versus-sugar production economics and shares how advisors can research Teucrium resources to gain exposure via ETFs. Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/asset-allocation/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about Teucrium here [https://teucrium.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome and Sponsor 01:04 Meet Sal Gilbertie 01:39 Teucrium and Grain ETFs 03:03 Macro Forces on Grains 04:05 Fertilizer and Crop Rotation 05:58 Supply Levels and Breakevens 08:47 Portfolio Benefits of Grains 11:51 Golden Grain Cycle Explained 14:35 Wheat Sugar and Global Producers 15:54 Fertilizer Inflation and 2027 18:28 Timing Grain Allocations 19:45 Corn Supply Pile 21:20 Seasonal Price Patterns 22:02 Portfolio Diversifier Case 24:28 Why Grains Get Ignored 27:50 Advisor Allocation Tactics 29:36 Sugar Ethanol Link 33:28 How To Get Exposure 35:28 Closing Thanks Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryannauman1/] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

Rethinking Risk: Why Smart Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets Matters

On location at the Exchange at 2026 ETF conference, host Ryan Nauman welcomes Ed Lopez, Head of Product Management at VanEck and host of the Trends with Benefits podcast, to discuss emerging markets after strong 2025 performance. Lopez explains how diversification benefited investors in 2025 as emerging market equities rose over 30% and emerging market debt returned around 17%, but notes recent risk-off sentiment tied to the Iran conflict and a move back into the U.S. dollar. He outlines longer-term reasons to be constructive on emerging markets, including central bank diversification away from the dollar since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, comparatively stronger fiscal positions, and more attractive valuations. They discuss why U.S. investors remain underweight EM, common misconceptions, China’s large index weight, and using ETFs—including ex-China, country, smart beta, and active ETFs—to be more selective, highlighting India-focused approaches. Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/asset-allocation/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about VanEck here [https://www.vaneck.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome and Disclosures 00:38 On Location at Exchange 00:55 Why Emerging Markets Now 01:21 Sponsor and Guest Intro 02:24 Ed Lopez and VanEck 03:37 Macro Risks and EM Outlook 07:19 Why Investors Underweight EM 09:04 Beyond Diversification Returns 10:17 China Weight and EM Options 12:40 Active ETFs and Smart Beta 14:01 EM Misconceptions Explained 15:32 Best Ways to Get EM Exposure 16:36 Where to Learn More Wrap Up 17:21 Final Thanks and Subscribe Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryannauman1/ ] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]

Should Commodities Be a Core Holding in an Asset Allocation?

From Lake Tahoe, Zephyr market strategist Ryan Nauman welcomes Paul Baiocchi, Head of Fund Strategy at SS&C ALPS Advisors, to discuss why commodities have returned to focus amid strong gold and silver performance in 2025 and the Iran conflict’s impact on markets. They explore what recent geopolitical and even weather-driven disruptions reveal about fragile global supply/demand, how energy and other constrained inputs (fertilizer, aluminum, helium, copper) can provide diversification—including periods of negative correlation to the S&P 500—and why many portfolios lack exposure given low energy/materials weights. Paul argues secular forces like AI-driven data center buildouts, electrification, and rising electricity demand create long-term support for commodities and related equities, and outlines implementation approaches spanning commodity baskets, dynamic strategies, and thematic allocations across energy, materials, utilities, renewables, and nuclear. Zephyr can help financial advisors create modern diversified portfolios. Learn more here [https://informaconnect.com/zephyr/asset-allocation/?utm_medium=Content&utm_source=Content_Podcast&utm_campaign=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk_&utm_content=YT_Adjusted_for_Risk ]. Learn more about SS&C ALPS Advisors here [https://www.alpsadvisors.com/ ]. 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast 01:06 Meet Paul Baiocchi 02:20 Alps Advisors and ETFs 05:33 Iran Conflict Lessons 09:59 Why Commodities Get Ignored 16:52 AI Electrification Demand 22:02 Commodities Supercycle Case 24:26 Portfolio Allocation Framework 28:38 Smarter Commodity Exposure 33:29 Implementation and Products 35:56 Wrap Up and Resources Connect with Ryan Nauman: LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryannauman1/ ] X [https://twitter.com/LkTahoeBadger]