Watch Out for the Tail: Risk and Uncertainty in Agriculture

Agriculture's Wicked Energy Problems

The Iran War is hitting American farmers from multiple directions — not just through higher fertilizer costs, but through the rising price of diesel and gasoline too.  But this is far from agriculture's first energy crisis. In fact, during past crises we built tools and strategies for surviving the exact kinds of disruptions we're facing right now. Today, Sarah Mock and Trey Malone, along with special guest Otto Doering, look back at the 1970s propane crisis to find lessons for what to do (and what not to do) in response to our current energy squeeze. Then, they lay out a strategic framework for tackling these very kinds of "wicked problems" that seem to have no good solutions. You'll walk away with a better understanding of: * How to use Rumelt's Kernel of Good Strategy to accurately diagnose the real problem before reaching for solutions — and why skipping that step is where most strategies fall apart. * Why building trust and surfacing hidden value judgments are prerequisites for solving problems that pit interconnected stakeholders against one another. * What today's energy-agriculture collision, from AI's rural electricity demand to solar on farmland to farm bill uncertainty, means for how agribusinesses need to be planning right now. Agribusiness Blueprint is brought to you by Purdue Center for Food and Agricultural Business: agribusiness.purdue.ed [https://agribusiness.purdue.edu/]u. To learn more, follow, The Center for Food and Agribusiness [http://linkedin.com/company/purdue-agribusiness] on LinkedIn Agribusiness Blueprint is supported in part by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), Award No. 2022-68006-36433.

Watch Out for the Tail: Risk and Uncertainty in Agriculture

Risk has always been part of farming and agribusiness — but the way we understand and manage it has transformed dramatically over the past 60 years. Today, hosts Sarah Mock and Trey Malone trace that evolution, from the irrational exuberance of 1970s American agriculture through the devastating farm financial crisis of the 1980s, and into today's high-stakes landscape of trade wars, AI disruption, and geopolitical uncertainty. Along the way, they dig into practical strategies that farmers and agribusiness managers can use right now — not just to survive the next crisis, but to find opportunity in it. You'll walk away with a better understanding of: * The difference between quantifiable risk (the thunderstorm you can forecast) and uncertainty (the tornado you can't)  * How to use probabilistic thinking to score and rank the risks your business faces, and how to create a menu of options to help you react to both crises and opportunities * And what all of this means for ag today, as the sector faces a Global Policy Uncertainty Index that has gone from 100 to 8,000 We'll go together on a journey through the history of risk in agriculture and the tools that have been built to help farmers manage everything from hailstorms to market downturns. And we'll explore a simple, practical framework for scoring your own risks — so that when the next crisis hits, you won't be making decisions in a panic.  Agribusiness Blueprint is brought to you by Purdue Center for Food and Agricultural Business: agribusiness.purdue.ed [https://agribusiness.purdue.edu]u. To learn more, follow, The Center for Food and Agribusiness [http://linkedin.com/company/purdue-agribusiness] on LinkedIn Agribusiness Blueprint is supported in part by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), Award No. 2022-68006-36433.

Lean Agriculture

What do a foot pedal trash can, Japanese automakers, and modern ag sales have in common?  They were all invented (in a manner of speaking) by Lillian Gilbreth, an engineer, mother of twelve, and one of the most influential figures in modern management science.  In this episode, host Sarah Mock and co-host Trey Malone trace Lillian's remarkable legacy from the factory floor all the way to the American farm. Alongside Scott Downey, Director of the Center for Food and Agricultural Business at Purdue University, we unpack how Lillian, and her husband Frank, pioneered the study of human motion, and laid the groundwork for Lean strategy, the waste-reduction framework that Japanese automakers like Honda and Subaru used to quietly overtake American car companies in the latter half of the 20th century. Then, we connect Lean thinking directly to the world of agribusiness — exploring what it really means to eliminate waste in ag sales, why risk management (not relationships) may be the true product a salesperson delivers to a farmer, and why so many sales managers can't answer the simple question: "How much does it cost to put a salesperson in front of a customer?" The conversation also tackles the data overload facing both agribusinesses and farms today, the overlooked problem of labor waste in agriculture, and how AI may be shifting the most valuable skill in ag sales from providing answers to asking better questions. In this episode: * Why it's motion, and not time, that makes businesses more efficient * How Japanese automakers used Lean to overtake American manufacturing — and what agriculture can learn from it * The real product ag salespeople deliver to farmers (hint: it's not information) * Why knowing your "measure of motion" is the first step to eliminating waste * How "just in time" gave way to "just in case" — and why both are valid Lean outcomes * Why the future of rural America might hinge on creating smarter, leaner agribusinesses Resources: Learn more about Purdue's Center for Food and Agricultural Business at agribusiness.purdue.edu [http://agribusiness.purdue.edu]

Johnny Appleseed, Agribusiness Man

Once upon a time, a barefoot man with a pan on his head set out to build a business in one of the most unpredictable and challenging sectors on Earth.  That's how Johnny Appleseed became more than just an American folk hero, he became one of America's most innovate agribusiness people-- pioneering a tree nursery business on the nation's frontier in order to meet a fast-growing demand for apple cider and vinegar. Today, we're diving into Johnny Appleseed's story to understand: * Why agricultural and food businesses are so unique * How we went from intuitive management to formal agribusiness tools and strategies (and why it matters) * And what all this means for the ag industry today, as the sector continues to be rocked by new tech like AI and robotics, an unpredictable policy landscape, and unprecedented supply chain disruptions You'll walk away with an answer to the question, "Is food and ag really that different?" and deeper clarity on why strategies that work so well in other sectors fall flat in the agribusiness space.

Agribusiness Blueprint | The Trailer

Agriculture is unlike any other industry.  No other sector is so vital to human life, and so dependent on countless small businesses who contend daily with weather and natural variability, dozens of global markets, evolving technologies, and wild geopolitical uncertainty. The businesses that operate in this unique and complex world are also unlike any other, and they didn’t get that way by accident.  Agribusiness leaders have solved some of the hardest managerial problems on Earth.  To operate in this unconventional world, these leaders built one-of-a-kind tools that were influenced not just by economics and finance, but by industrial engineering, psychology, experimental economics, entrepreneurship, policy, and agricultural extension. Understanding how these tools were made, and how they shape the agribusiness world, is critical for those looking to stay relevant in the industry’s future.  That’s what we’re doing here. Each episode, we’ll tackle a conceptual breakthrough and the people who made it possible, and share stories about how these breakthroughs are still working, and evolving, today. You’ll hear familiar stories through new lenses, and emerging stories that will challenge what you think you know about the people and businesses that make food and agriculture work. Plus, you’ll meet entrepreneurs and thinkers who discovered and transformed agribusiness over the last 50 years, getting a crash course in how agribusiness works, what to do when it doesn’t, and where it's going from here.  This is Agribusiness Blueprint. Season premiere coming Wednesday, April 8th, wherever you listen to podcasts.