Quarterly Update | Q2 2026 | EP 221

Quarterly Update | Q2 2026 | EP 221

Canadian equities gained in the second quarter of 2026 even as the economy tripped the technical definition of a recession and an oil shock sent crude toward $120 before it fell back. Institutional portfolio manager Kevin Minas and investment counsellor Stu Morrow review the quarter, from the gap between the Canadian market and the Canadian economy to the case for holding commodity exposure as geopolitical risk becomes a recurring feature rather than a one-off. They also discuss what a narrow, AI-led rally means for a diversified portfolio, record hyperscaler bond issuance in Canada, and how the Bank of Canada and the Fed held rates through a volatile stretch. The conversation closes on the quarter's asset allocation: trimming equities back toward a neutral mix. Key Takeaways * Canada met the technical definition of a recession, but the picture underneath was nuanced. GDP rebounded about 0.5% in April with most industries expanding, and per-capita output grew, closer to a stall-speed economy than a true contraction. * The market and the economy can tell different stories. Financials and energy dominate the TSX while real estate and healthcare drive more of the real economy, which helps explain a roughly 7% TSX return alongside soft growth. * Geopolitical risk increasingly looks like a recurring condition rather than a rare tail event. With oil spiking near $120 before falling back toward $70, the episode makes the case that commodity exposure can play a portfolio-construction role, chosen selectively where valuation and business quality support it, rather than serving as a call on prices. * The Fed stood pat under new chair Kevin Warsh, and the Bank of Canada held across its April and June meetings after cutting substantially. In Canadian bonds, the team added duration as yields rose on inflation fears and removed it as they fell. * On AI, the aim is not to guess whether the buildout keeps running, but to choose which risk to live with: too much concentration in the theme on one side, or falling behind by stepping away from it on the other. The team keeps the portfolio from leaning too far in either direction by weighing the companies spending on the buildout against the hyperscalers earning from it, since one company's capital spending is another's revenue. With memory stocks, the risk lies less in the multiple paid than in the cyclicality of the earnings. * Credit was constructive, with record hyperscaler issuance in Canada including a $14 billion Amazon deal that Mawer participated in. With spreads tight, positioning stayed higher-quality and shorter-dated, and the balanced strategy trimmed equities back toward a neutral asset mix. Companies Mentioned: Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Microsoft, Oracle Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA, Mawer Investment Counsellor This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ [https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/] #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

Emerging Markets: Different Hats, Better Decisions, and Learning Faster | EP 220

Investment teams increasingly build and rely on their own AI tools, but the payoff depends on how deliberately a team reinvests the time that AI frees up. Emerging markets portfolio manager Wen Quan Cheong walks through how his team puts believability-weighted decision making into daily practice, and where AI has genuinely enhanced the process. He closes with a tour of the emerging-market themes he is watching most closely, from reshoring and clean-room capacity to physical AI, low-earth-orbit satellites, and businesses winning simply by putting the customer first. Above all, he returns to the idea that AI's real value lies in what a team chooses to do with the time it saves. Key Takeaways * The team practices believability-weighted decision making: deferring more to teammates with deeper expertise on a given name, while still doing enough independent work to spot blind spots. * One of AI's biggest productivity gain so far for the team has been in forensic analysis, running deeper, more consistent checks across longer time periods than a human could alone, freeing up time for higher-value work like idea generation and company research. * That saved time is meant to be reinvested, not banked: attending more conferences, joining more management calls, and turning insight generation itself into a discipline, described as "learning compression." * On reshoring, the team sees opportunity less in the household names and more in the infrastructure behind the shift: industrial park developers, port operators, and specialized clean-room engineering firms like Acter Group and CTP. * Beyond AI and reshoring, the team explores other areas such as physical AI and low-earth-orbit satellites, as well as EM businesses, such as NU Holdings, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank, that win by being more customer-obsessed than entrenched incumbents. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Wen Quan Cheong, CFA Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com [https://www.mawer.com] https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/] https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ [https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/]

Global Equity: The Odyssey, the AI Trade, and Concentration Risk | EP 219

AI portfolio construction in global equity markets (memory semiconductors, mega IPOs, and how to manage concentration risk) is the focus of this conversation with Mawer's global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz. Drawing on Homer's Odyssey, he explains the discipline the team applies when navigating themes that are moving quickly: from trimming SK Hynix systematically as the position grew, to sizing up what a wave of large IPOs means for cost of capital, to the central trade-off between underexposure and overconcentration in the AI complex. He also puts numbers around the portfolio's AI positioning and explains how hyperscaler holdings act as a natural offset. The episode closes on humility as a process requirement, reflected in the portfolio's expansion to nearly 90 names with smaller, more incremental position sizing. Key Takeaways * Memory semiconductors, including SK Hynix, illustrate the discipline required around fast-moving themes. The team has sold back nearly as much as it invested in SK Hynix while the position has grown to over 5% of the portfolio — a deliberate trimming driven by ongoing valuation modeling, not a change in the thesis. The risk is not the price-to-earnings multiple; it is the cyclicality of earnings, and the question of how long the current upcycle runs. * Odysseus' response to the Sirens when he ties himself to the mast and has his crew row with beeswax in their ears is a useful analogy for process. Decisions made in advance of the moment of seduction, grounded in a systematic valuation framework, are more reliable than decisions made in the heat of a rapid move. * Large IPOs entering markets signal a more capital-intensive economic period and raise real questions about where the capital comes from. Companies already in the S&P 500 benefit from a structural cost-of-capital advantage over those outside it, and the team watches for what needs to be sold as large new issuers absorb liquidity. A period of multiple compression, while uncomfortable for near-term statements, improves long-term reinvestment returns. * The Scylla-versus-Charybdis choice (the monster on one side, the whirlpool on the other) maps directly onto the AI portfolio construction problem. The team's AI hardware exposure sits at approximately 22.7% of the portfolio; a 50% drawdown in that sleeve would represent roughly an 11-12% hit to the overall portfolio. An offsetting 15.5% is held in hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) whose capital expenditure is the revenue of the hardware side, producing a natural hedge that brings net directional AI exposure to around 7-8%. * The team's response to the Cyclops story (Odysseus boasting after his victory, which brought years of suffering from Poseidon) is portfolio humility expressed through construction. The global equity portfolio now holds just under 90 names, with positions sized smaller and traded in smaller increments to reduce the cost of being wrong and to manage in a high-volatility environment. * Some holdings that look nothing like AI businesses have begun moving with AI sentiment. The team treats these correlation shifts as arbitrage opportunities: when something is priced as an AI stock but carries different underlying risk, there may be a better entry or exit available elsewhere in the complex. 0:00 - Introduction: Homer's Odyssey and the AI Trade 1:39 - The Sirens: Memory Stocks, SK Hynix, and Valuation Discipline 7:54 - Managing a Position That Has Grown Beyond Its Cost Base 10:30 - Mega IPOs, Cost of Capital, and Index Inclusion Advantage 15:49 - Scylla vs. Charybdis: Choosing Your Risk in AI 17:58 - AI Portfolio Construction: Numbers, Offsets, and Net Exposure 23:11 - Correlation Creep: When Non-AI Stocks Start Acting Like AI 24:42 - The Cyclops Story: Humility, Diversification, and Process 26:53 - Closing: Managing Money Across Generations 27:15 - Outro and Subscribe Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA, Global Equity Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com [https://www.mawer.com] https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/] https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ [https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/]

Looking Under the Hood: Canadian Equity Concentration and Diversification | EP 218

Canada's stock market has set repeated record highs in 2026, even as the domestic economy feels soft. Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford explains the gap between the two, and why a large weight in financials can represent more diversification rather than less. He walks through how the team rotated within the sector as the banks re-rated, and the discipline behind trimming a gold position that had run. As indexes themselves have grown more concentrated, the conversation lands on a simple idea: knowing what you own matters more than ever. Key takeaways • The Canadian market and the Canadian economy can tell very different stories. Commodities and financials drive a large share of corporate earnings even though relatively few people work in those sectors, which helps explain record markets alongside near-zero real growth. • A large weight in financials is not a single bet. Beneath the label sit banks, life, property and casualty insurers, alternative asset managers, and exchanges, each with its own return drivers and correlations. • Position weights reflect what has worked, but they are not fixed. As the banks re-rated from roughly 10 to 12 times earnings toward 15 to 16 times, the team recycled capital into property and casualty insurers and alternative asset managers offering more attractive returns. • Gold earns its place through company economics, not a price forecast. Royalty businesses and selected miners were added for their free cash flow and differentiated correlation, then trimmed as the combined weight grew and the rate and inflation backdrop shifted. • Trimming winners is as much a part of the discipline as finding them. Allowing any single position or exposure to grow unchecked introduces risk that has nothing to do with the original thesis. • Indexes have become increasingly concentrated vehicles. Knowing what you own, and holding exposures by deliberate choice rather than by default, can be key to real diversification. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment [https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment] https://www.mawer.com [https://www.mawer.com] https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/] https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ [https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/] #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

Balanced Portfolios: A Market Tug of War and the Discipline to Stay Neutral | EP 217

In this episode, portfolio manager Steven Visscher covers how Mawer's balanced portfolios navigated 2025 and how they are positioned in 2026. With a war-driven energy shock on one side and an AI investment boom on the other, the market is pulling in two directions at once. Steven walks through what that means for asset mix, where the team is seeing signs of investor complacency, and why cracks in private credit could soon create a meaningful opportunity. Key Takeaways: * Two forces are competing for market direction in 2026: a war-driven energy shock from the conflict in Iran pushing inflation and rates higher, and a broadening AI investment boom driving strong earnings momentum across the global economy. * AI capital investment has expanded well beyond the hyperscalers to include memory, storage, cooling, data centres, and electrical grid infrastructure, with more than 80% of S&P 500 Q1 reporters beating earnings expectations. * Current positioning remains close to neutral at 60% equity, with a continued underweight to U.S. equities in favour of international and emerging markets. Valuations, interest rates, and investor psychology all support staying close to that neutral stance. * Cracks in private credit are emerging through rising defaults and client redemption gating. The team is building global credit exposure gradually and is prepared to deploy capital more aggressively when a dislocation occurs. * In an environment of competing forces and mixed signals, staying diversified, maintaining valuation discipline, and building portfolios that can withstand multiple scenarios remains the priority. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Steven Visscher, CFA Investment Counsellor This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com [https://www.mawer.com/]. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/] Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ [https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/]