The Camp David Bet: S&P 7,500 on an Unsigned Deal, Warsh's First Week, and the PCE Test

CPI Hits 4.2%, Iran Downs a US Helicopter, and Seven Days to Warsh

Everything landed at once this morning. Roman goes on to break down the May CPI report as headline inflation crossing 4.2% for the first time in three years, driven by a 23.5% annual energy surge from the Hormuz closure. Overnight, an Iranian drone collided with a US Army Apache helicopter off Oman, the US struck approximately 20 targets inside Iran in response, and Trump warned Iran will now "pay the price." Oil is surging again. S&P futures are down with a 22% Polymarket probability of a green open. Bitcoin sits at $62,500 after Friday's break below $60,000 and the Strategy selloff scare. And Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting in seven days with market-implied rate hike odds at 50%, and no clean path forward. Plus: the Connecticut Capital Paradox deepens as household purchasing power falls on both the asset and the energy side simultaneously.

Record Highs, Missile Strikes: The AI Boom vs. the Iran Escalation

The S&P just crossed 7,600 for the first time while Iran launched missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain overnight. Roman goes on to break down the most dangerous disconnect in today's market: an AI chip-driven equity boom running on top of a fragmenting ceasefire and an oil war that is far from over. We analyze why the Iran MOU still doesn't have Trump's signature, what last night's Gulf escalation means for Brent crude, and why Core PCE is running at 3.3% and how it has locked the Warsh Fed into a hold. Plus jobs week is live: JOLTS beat, ADP came in at 122K, and Friday's payrolls could be the catalyst that forces the market to reconcile its contradictions. And Bitcoin breaks down to $67K on record ETF outflows, while the Connecticut Capital Paradox deepens under stagflationary pressure.

The Camp David Bet: S&P 7,500 on an Unsigned Deal, Warsh's First Week, and the PCE Test

The market is pricing a peace deal that hasn't been signed. (Again) Roman breaks down why the S&P's record push to 7,500 is built entirely on Iran deal optimism, with Trump's Cabinet convening at Camp David today to try to close it. Roman goes on to unpack the real Warsh regime: what his May 22nd swearing-in actually means for rates, why the FOMC is the most divided it's been since 1992, and why tomorrow's PCE print could be the first serious stress test of his tenure. Plus, oil's $23 collapse from its April peak, what Spirit Airlines tells us about unhedged operational leverage, Bitcoin's second failed recovery at $75K, and the Connecticut Capital Paradox keeping Fairfield County's wealth frozen on the sidelines.

The 2026 Accountability Phase — AMD’s Breakout and the Oil Reversal

In this technical deep dive for Wednesday, May 6th, 2026, Roman break down one of the most volatile opening bells of the year. Following a "quadruple-header" of mega-cap earnings and a geopolitically charged week, the market is finally separating the winners from the pretenders.

Accountability Phase: The $600B AI Capex Trial & Powell’s Final FOMC

It is Wednesday, April 29th, 2026—a day where the narrative phase of the AI supercycle officially meets the accountability phase of the balance sheet. In this high-stakes edition of Before the Bell, as Roman goes on to break down a market sitting at a disciplined standstill before a sequence of catalysts with virtually no modern precedent.