Following up the Punch Bowl: thoughts from the Morgan Stanley investor conference, Lennar earnings, perspective on the inflation data and the FED

Following up the Punch Bowl: thoughts from the Morgan Stanley investor conference, Lennar earnings, perspective on the inflation data and the FED

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recounts the Morgan Stanley Financial Services Conference, highlighting a spending super cycle and dismissing fears over private credit. He then assesses Lennar's earnings, noting a depressed housing consumer but contrarian signals near cyclical lows. Lastly, Scott reiterates his punch bowl thesis amid mixed inflation data.

Removing the Punch Bowl, The Case For Tighter Monetary Policy

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott opens with a contrarian case for Fed tightening, arguing that a rate hiking cycle beginning later this year is more likely than markets are pricing. He points to a two-year Treasury yield sitting roughly 60 basis points above the fed funds rate, a confirmed uptrend in the ECRI Future Inflation Gauge, the stimulative effects of the Iran war, and a Taylor Rule calling for meaningfully tighter policy making the case that the Fed risks falling behind the curve before inflation forces their hand. Scott then turns to Broadcom's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, using the results as a lens on the AI CapEx cycle. Full-year AI semiconductor revenues are tracking toward $56 billion up 180% year over year with management guiding for revenues well above $100 billion in fiscal 2027 and expressing high visibility through 2028. A book-to-bill ratio approaching three and accelerating average selling prices reinforce Scott's view that the AI infrastructure boom remains firmly intact. Scott closes with the May nonfarm payroll report, which came in at 172,000 nearly double the Street's consensus of 88,000 with April revised sharply higher to 179,000. The three-month average now sits at 188,000, well above the Fed's estimated equilibrium. Scott frames this as a labor market that continues to run hot and notes the report sets up Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 17th as one to watch closely.

Global Yield Shock

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott digs into first quarter 2026 earnings, which posted a headline growth rate of 28.4% year over year but were flattered by over $50 billion in AI-related investment gains from Google and Amazon, making the adjusted growth rate closer to high teens which is still very strong, but less euphoric than the headline suggests. He then unpacks the global yield shock sweeping G20 bond markets, driven by warflation from the Iran-US conflict pushing food and energy prices higher in tandem, with Japan leading the backup after its 30-year yield hit 4.2%, the highest in over three decades, while China stands alone with falling yields and a massive borrowing cost advantage. Lastly, Scott walks through Walmart's fiscal first quarter earnings and what they reveal about inflation and the US consumer, highlighting that average gasoline fills have dropped back to 2022 levels and that management warned directly: if the Iran war persists, expect higher inflation for the remainder of 2026.

Natural gas in the doldrums, inflation re-accelerates, and Cisco's 26-year comeback

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott explains why natural gas is one of only two commodities down in 2026 despite a roaring commodity bull market, pointing to surging shale production that continues to outpace export capacity while noting that the massive US-Europe price arbitrage and summer weather could change the picture fast. He then digs into this week's CPI and PPI releases, arguing that a re-acceleration in inflation is clearly underway in both core services and goods, a trend that was building before the Iran war and is now reflected in a global bond sell-off. Lastly, Scott salutes Cisco Systems for finally reclaiming its dot-com-era all-time high 26 years later, driven by record revenue, hyperscaler AI orders expected to grow four and a half times in 2026, and a renewed position at the center of the AI infrastructure boom.

Senior Loan Officer Survey, Goldilocks Jobs, and Apollo's Defensive Posture

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott delves into the April Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, highlighting tighter standards on business and private credit lending that should weigh on growth later in 2026. He then assesses the April employment report, explaining why the 48,000 three-month average is the Goldilocks number to embrace amid an unusually broad-based set of industry gains. Lastly, Scott recounts Apollo's earnings, noting Marc Rowan's increasingly defensive posture even as markets hit new highs.