TD Stock: HOLD Call - Adjusted EPS +3% Sequential Q2 FY2026

TD Stock: HOLD Call - Adjusted EPS +3% Sequential Q2 FY2026

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (RY, NYSE) Q2 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. Financials reported in Canadian dollars (CAD); share price and price targets in USD (NYSE), FX about 1.37 CAD per USD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $113.58 (USD) -> HOLD - BUY below $100.00 with $89.00 stop - AVOID above $125.00 TRIGGER: Upgrade to BUY if OCC lifts or meaningfully relaxes the US retail asset cap WINDOW: 12-24 months - OCC resolution unlocks meaningful US earnings upside WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 9 Buy / 8 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> BUY - Median 12-month price target: $116.00 USD (range $95 - $130) THESIS TD is Canada's second-largest bank with strong CET1 capital and a recovering earnings trajectory. US Retail is under an OCC asset cap from the 2024 AML action — the dominant overhang. Bull lever: OCC cap resolution unlocks US Retail earnings and loan book growth, likely triggering a re-rating toward peers. Canadian franchise is solid; NII growing; CET1 at 13.4% supports buybacks. Key risk: The OCC cap has no committed lift date. AML remediation is multi-year; new compliance missteps reset the clock. The stock is already up 65% from lows — most easy money made without cap being lifted. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B+ - Earnings quality grade: B KEY METRICS - Q2 FY2026 (CAD unless noted) - Diluted EPS: C$2.43 (+-61.0% YoY; a clean beat) - Net income: C$5.51B (+25% YoY) - Total revenue: C$27.02B (+-5.1% YoY) - Return on equity: 17.2% (up from 14.2% a year ago) - CET1 capital ratio: 13.5% (well above the 11.5% regulatory floor) - Provisions for credit losses (PCL): C$912M (down 36% YoY) - Efficiency ratio: ~52% - Dividend raised 14% YoY plus a new buyback of up to 45 million shares - Dividend yield: ~2.5% (USD); stock up ~46% over the trailing year DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in RY. #RY #RBC #RoyalBankofCanada #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #Banks #Dividend

RY Stock: HOLD Call - EPS Up 27% YoY After 46% Run Q2 FY2026

Royal Bank of Canada (RY, NYSE) Q2 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. Financials reported in Canadian dollars (CAD); share price and price targets in USD (NYSE), FX about 1.37 CAD per USD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $187.97 (USD) -> HOLD - BUY below $165.00 with $148.00 stop - AVOID above $210.00 TRIGGER: Add aggressively if PCL stays below 35 bps for two quarters AND the stock retests $165 WINDOW: 12-18 months - best-in-class earnings power and capital return versus a premium entry WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 12 Buy / 16 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $195.00 USD (range $158 - $215) THESIS RBC is Canada's largest bank, earning a high-teens return on equity with a strong 13.5% CET1 capital ratio, diversified business lines spanning Canadian banking, wealth, capital markets and U.S. City National, and a credit book whose provisions are improving rather than deteriorating. Bull lever: Diluted EPS grew 27% year over year as provisions fell 36% and wealth, commercial and capital markets all posted double-digit gains; capital strength funded a 14% dividend increase and a new buyback of up to 45 million shares. Key risk: The stock has already run roughly 46% in a year to near its 52-week high and trades at the top of the big-bank range, leaving a thin margin of safety if the credit cycle turns. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A - Earnings quality grade: A KEY METRICS - Q2 FY2026 (CAD unless noted) - Diluted EPS: C$3.86 (+27.0% YoY; a clean beat) - Net income: C$5.51B (+25% YoY) - Total revenue: C$33.93B (+4.2% YoY) - Return on equity: 17.2% (up from 14.2% a year ago) - CET1 capital ratio: 13.5% (well above the 11.5% regulatory floor) - Provisions for credit losses (PCL): C$912M (down 36% YoY) - Efficiency ratio: ~52% - Dividend raised 14% YoY plus a new buyback of up to 45 million shares - Dividend yield: ~2.5% (USD); stock up ~46% over the trailing year DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in RY. #RY #RBC #RoyalBankofCanada #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #Banks #Dividend

CM Stock: HOLD Call - EPS Up 24% YoY After 60% Run Q2 FY2026

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM, NYSE) Q2 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. Financials reported in Canadian dollars (CAD); share price and price targets in USD (NYSE), FX about 1.37 CAD per USD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $108.05 (USD) -> HOLD - BUY below $98.00 with $88.00 stop - AVOID above $125.00 TRIGGER: Add aggressively if PCL stays below 35 bps for two quarters AND the stock retests $98 WINDOW: 12-18 months - earnings power plus capital return versus a stretched entry WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 3 Strong Buy / 6 Buy / 7 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $122.55 USD (range $70 - $127) THESIS CIBC is a top-five Canadian bank earning mid-teens return on equity with a strong 13.4% CET1 capital ratio, four diversified business lines, and a credit book whose provisions are improving rather than deteriorating. Bull lever: Diluted EPS grew 24% year over year as provisions fell 15% and the share count dropped after the two-for-one split and buybacks; capital strength funds both the dividend and repurchases. Key risk: The stock has already run roughly 60% in a year to near its 52-week high, leaving only about 12% upside to the median target and a thin margin of safety if the credit cycle turns. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- - Earnings quality grade: A- KEY METRICS - Q2 FY2026 (CAD unless noted) - Diluted EPS: C$2.53 (+24.4% YoY; beat the C$2.41 estimate) - Net income: C$2.46B (+23% YoY) - Total revenue: C$15.22B (+1.1% YoY) - Return on equity: 14% - CET1 capital ratio: 13.4% (well above the 11.5% regulatory floor) - Provisions for credit losses (PCL): C$514M (down 15% YoY) - Efficiency ratio: ~55% - Dividend yield: ~2.85% (USD); stock up ~60% over the trailing year DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in CM. #CM #CIBC #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #Banks #Dividend

KC Stock: HOLD Call - Revenue +37% YoY on the AI Cloud Boom Q1 2026

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (KC) Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - a conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. (RMB figures converted to USD at 7.2 CNY/USD.) THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $12.19 -> HOLD - BUY below $10.50 with $8.00 stop - AVOID above $18.00 - TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of expanding gross margin AND positive GAAP operating margin while AI cloud billings stay above fifty percent of public cloud - WINDOW: 12-18 months - AI-cloud monetization plus a gross-margin and free-cash-flow turn KEY METRICS - Q1 2026 - Revenue $375.5M (RMB2,703.7M), +37.2% YoY; public cloud +47.5%, enterprise cloud +14.7% - AI cloud gross billings RMB1.0B (+90.1% YoY), now 50.1% of public cloud revenue (first time >half) - Adjusted EBITDA RMB748M (+134.7% YoY), 27.6% margin (+11.4pp) - Gross margin 12.8%; GAAP operating margin -6.1%; net loss RMB343.7M (loss widened sequentially) - 2026 AI-infrastructure capex guide RMB15-20B; free cash flow deeply negative; net-debt balance sheet - Xiaomi/Kingsoft ecosystem revenue RMB838M (+68.9%), ~31% of total (related-party concentration) WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 7 Buy / 3 Hold / 0 Sell -> BUY - Median 12-month price target: $15.60 - Charged Alpha vs consensus: Charged Alpha is more cautious than consensus, rating KC HOLD versus the Street's Buy. DATA SOURCES: FMP (financialmodelingprep.com); Kingsoft Cloud Q1 2026 unaudited 6-K + earnings call. DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in KC. Do your own research before any investment decision. #KC #KingsoftCloud #earnings #investing #stocks #AIcloud #ChargedAlpha

MOD Stock: HOLD Call - Revenue +47% YoY on the Data-Center Cooling Boom Q4 FY2026

Modine Manufacturing Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $270.45 -> HOLD - ACCUMULATE below $215.00 with $175.00 reassess level - TRIM above $340.00 TRIGGER: Data center sales sustaining triple-digit YoY growth AND FY27 sales tracking the high end of the +20-35% guide WINDOW: 12-18 months - the data center capacity expansion and spin-off both play out WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 4 Strong Buy / 6 Buy / 5 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell -> BUY - Median 12-month PT: $325.00 (range $263 - $370) THESIS Modine is a fast-growing data center cooling company, with Climate Solutions up eighty seven percent, record revenue, and a four billion dollar chiller agreement, that has already re-rated roughly three-fold in a year. Bull lever: Data center cooling sales grew one hundred fifty eight percent and now exceed four hundred million a quarter; the pending Performance Technologies spin-off leaves a purer, faster-growing cooling business. Key risk: After a three-fold run the stock trades near thirty eight times forward earnings, leaving little margin for any slowdown in hyperscaler capex or spin-off execution. KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Revenue: $0.95B record (+47.5% YoY) - GAAP diluted EPS: $1.36 (+47.8% YoY); adjusted EPS $1.71 (+53%) - Climate Solutions sales +87% to $665.9M; Data Centers +158% (over $400M in the quarter) - Free Cash Flow: $125.1M (up from $27M YoY); FCF margin ~13% - GAAP Operating margin: 10.9% - Net debt cut to ~$363M after a ~$431M Q4 debt paydown; landmark $4B chiller agreement - NOTE: The prior-quarter (Q3) GAAP loss was a ONE-TIME non-cash pension termination charge ($116.1M), not an operating miss - FY27 guide: sales +20% to +35%; adjusted EBITDA $650M-$680M (+38-44%) - Pending spin-off of Performance Technologies (Reverse Morris Trust with Gentherm) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in MOD. #MOD #Modine #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha #DataCenter #AI #Cooling