Ep. 102 - Trump-Xi Summit, AI Competition & U.S.-China Strategy w/Andrew Harding

Ep. 102 - Trump-Xi Summit, AI Competition & U.S.-China Strategy w/Andrew Harding

What should the United States realistically expect from high-level diplomacy with China — and where are the real risks in the relationship? In this episode of The China Desk, host Steve Yates is joined by Andrew Harding, Policy Analyst for National Security and Indo-Pacific Affairs at The Heritage Foundation, for a detailed breakdown of President Trump’s recent summit with Xi Jinping and the broader future of U.S.-China relations. Harding explains how the Heritage Foundation developed a framework for evaluating the summit — identifying what would constitute favorable outcomes for the United States, what risks to avoid, and how to think strategically about long-term competition with China. The discussion explores how the summit ultimately functioned less as a transformational moment and more as a “maintenance check” on an increasingly competitive relationship between Washington and Beijing. Major topics include: • Expectations surrounding the Trump–Xi summit • Favorable vs unfavorable outcomes for U.S. policy • Rare earths, export controls, and AI competition • Why advanced semiconductor restrictions matter • China’s role in fentanyl trafficking and leverage • Taiwan and concerns over shifting U.S. policy language • Agricultural trade and strategic economic competition • China’s support for Iran and geopolitical implications • Human rights concerns, including Jimmy Lai and religious persecution • Why the U.S.–China relationship remains structurally competitive • The future of AI rivalry between Washington and Beijing • Strategic dependencies and supply chain vulnerabilities The episode also dives into Harding’s earlier work on the Pacific Islands and the Compacts of Free Association (COFA), highlighting why the region has become increasingly important in the context of U.S.-China competition. Additional topics include: • Chinese influence operations in the Pacific Islands • Why Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands matter strategically • Heritage Foundation’s role in supporting COFA renewal efforts • The “Pacific Pivot” strategy for long-term U.S. engagement A major takeaway from the conversation is that future U.S.-China engagement should focus on protecting American strategic advantages — especially in AI, advanced technology, and national security — while avoiding concessions that weaken U.S. leverage. The episode closes with a broader discussion on what to watch for ahead of a possible future Xi visit to the United States and why export controls and AI competition may become the defining issue of the next phase of U.S.-China relations. 00:00 — Intro + Andrew Harding joins 02:08 — From Russia to China policy work 06:21 — Pacific Islands strategy and COFA agreements 10:14 — Heritage’s “Pacific Pivot” strategy 11:16 — Expectations for the Trump–Xi summit 13:53 — Favorable outcomes for the U.S. 16:19 — Unfavorable outcomes and red lines 19:09 — Did the summit accomplish anything? 22:06 — Engagement vs strategic competition 27:07 — Preparing for a future Xi visit to the U.S. 32:19 — What to watch next: AI and export controls 35:23 — Final thoughts + closing Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW

Ep. 101 - CCP Propaganda, China’s Future & the Taiwan Question w/Terence Shen

What happens when someone raised inside China’s education system begins questioning everything they were taught? In this episode of The China Desk, host Steve Yates sits down with independent China analyst and journalist Terence Shen for a wide-ranging discussion on CCP propaganda, Chinese political culture, Taiwan, and the future trajectory of the People’s Republic of China. Born and raised in Beijing, Shen describes how studying abroad in Canada first exposed him to historical narratives and political realities that sharply contradicted what he learned in Chinese schools. That experience ultimately transformed him from a former pro-regime voice into one of the most prominent Mandarin-language critics of the Chinese Communist Party online. The conversation traces Shen’s journey from Beijing to Hong Kong and eventually Toronto, where repeated censorship and account bans pushed him to launch a YouTube platform that now reaches more than one million subscribers worldwide — including audiences inside China using VPNs to bypass censorship. A major theme of the episode is the distinction between Xi Jinping as an individual leader and the deeper structural realities of the CCP system itself. The discussion covers: • Why many Chinese citizens still seek uncensored information • How censorship shapes public understanding inside China • Xi Jinping vs the broader CCP system • The long-term effects of authoritarian political culture • Why Shen believes modern China functions more like an empire than a nation-state • The historical roots of Chinese centralization and control • Why Taiwan and Hong Kong are central to CCP legitimacy • China’s demographic decline and economic vulnerabilities • The “lying flat” movement among younger Chinese citizens • Why youth hopelessness threatens the CCP’s economic model • China’s dependence on foreign capital, technology, and supply chains • Structural weaknesses in China’s military and innovation system The episode also explores the CCP’s narrative of “national rejuvenation” and how the regime ties its legitimacy to restoring China’s historical greatness — even as internal pressures continue to mount. On Taiwan, Shen explains why many Taiwanese audiences increasingly worry less about direct invasion and more about internal political influence operations, propaganda, and efforts to weaken Taiwan from within. The takeaway is clear: understanding modern China requires looking beyond headlines and individual leaders to the deeper political, historical, and cultural systems driving the CCP’s behavior. 00:00 — Intro + Terence Shen joins 01:21 — Growing up in Beijing under CCP education 04:15 — Hong Kong journalism and censorship 07:13 — Leaving China and building a YouTube platform 08:50 — Chinese audiences seeking uncensored information 11:09 — Xi Jinping vs the CCP system 16:14 — CCP propaganda and political culture 20:08 — China as an empire vs nation-state 25:42 — The “lying flat” movement explained 30:03 — China’s economic and military vulnerabilities 34:41 — “National rejuvenation” and CCP legitimacy 35:18 — Taiwan, political warfare, and internal influence 39:08 — Pushback from pro-CCP audiences 40:50 — Where to follow Terence Shen + closing Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW

Ep. 100 - 100 Episodes In: Steve Yates on China, Strategy & What Comes Next w/Andrew Langer

After 100 episodes, what has the China Desk revealed about the Chinese Communist Party, U.S. strategy, and the future of global competition? In this special milestone edition of The China Desk, the roles are reversed. Host Steve Yates becomes the guest, while Andrew Langer, host of the Lunch Hour Podcast, steps in to lead the conversation — reflecting on the biggest lessons, themes, and takeaways from the first 100 episodes. Since launching in 2023, China Desk has featured conversations with policymakers, analysts, and subject matter experts across the spectrum of U.S.-China relations. In this episode, Yates steps back to examine what those discussions reveal about where the relationship stands today — and where it is headed. A major theme is the idea of reciprocity — a principle that has shaped many China Desk conversations. Yates explains why the U.S. should rethink policies that grant China access and advantages not reciprocated in return, and how this concept is beginning to influence broader trade and geopolitical thinking. The discussion also covers: • What Steve Yates has learned from 100 episodes of China Desk • Why listening — not talking — is key to meaningful policy conversations • The origins and impact of the U.S. “engagement” strategy with China • Why the “China will become like us” assumption failed • How CCP power structures shape behavior at home and abroad • The concept of reciprocity in trade, policy, and diplomacy • How China’s system differs fundamentally from Western governance • The evolving U.S.–China strategic and economic relationship • The role of China in global conflicts, including Iran and Ukraine • The complex relationship between China, Russia, and authoritarian regimes • Why authoritarian systems can endure despite internal weaknesses • How economic growth reinforced CCP control over the population The conversation also explores the human dimension of China policy — including how decades of political control, economic transformation, and social upheaval have shaped the Chinese population’s relationship with the state. Looking forward, Yates outlines three core priorities for U.S. policy: • Rebalancing the economic relationship with China • Reinforcing deterrence and demonstrating American strength • Strengthening and realigning global alliances The episode closes on a more personal note, as Yates reflects on family, loss, and the importance of stepping away from policy work to reconnect with what matters most. After 100 episodes, one message is clear: understanding China requires not just analysis — but listening, perspective, and a willingness to challenge long-held assumptions. 00:00 — Intro + 100th episode special format 00:08 — Andrew Langer guest hosts the China Desk 00:35 — Celebrating 100 episodes and show impact 00:57 — Steve Yates introduction and background 02:28 — What Steve Yates has learned from 100 episodes 03:15 — Why listening matters more than talking 04:02 — Building trust with guests and audience 06:11 — Has anything changed his perspective? 07:08 — Bipartisan conversations and policy framing 07:58 — Where U.S.–China relations stand today 08:16 — The concept of reciprocity explained 10:04 — Why engagement with China failed 11:03 — The “fatal conceit” of Western assumptions 13:53 — China–Russia relationship and strategic alignment 15:32 — Lessons from the Cold War and Soviet Union 16:48 — CCP control over Chinese society 18:02 — Information control and political power 19:02 — Why authoritarian systems persist 19:56 — Historical trauma and CCP legitimacy 21:02 — Economic growth vs political control 22:10 — Three priorities for U.S. policy moving forward 22:32 — Rebalancing the economic relationship 23:57 — Reinforcing deterrence and American strength 24:39 — Rethinking alliances and global priorities 25:44 — Outside interests: family, outdoors, and faith 27:33 — Where to find the China Desk podcast 28:24 — Closing Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW

Ep. 99 - Is China a Modern Invention? History, Myth & Power w/Bill Hayton

Is “China” as we understand it today really a continuous civilization — or a modern political construction? In this episode of The China Desk, host Steve Yates sits down with Bill Hayton, journalist and author of The Invention of China, to unpack one of the most provocative ideas in China studies: that many core concepts of modern China — including its identity, history, and territorial claims — are far more recent than commonly believed. Drawing on his research, Hayton explains how ideas like Chinese nationalism, sovereignty, and even the concept of “China” itself were shaped in the late 19th and early 20th centuries — often influenced by foreign thinkers, political pressures, and the collapse of the imperial system. A major focus of the conversation is how these constructed narratives continue to shape modern Chinese policy, propaganda, and global strategy. The discussion covers: • Why the term “China” was not historically used by Chinese rulers • How modern Chinese identity emerged in the late imperial and early republican periods • The origins of the “5,000 years of history” narrative • How nationalism was constructed to unify diverse populations • The invention and political use of Han ethnic identity • Why historical narratives are used to legitimize CCP authority • The concept of “national humiliation” and its political function • How myths about history influence modern Chinese foreign policy • The South China Sea and the origins of China’s maritime claims • Why many widely accepted historical claims lack solid evidence • Taiwan’s complex historical relationship with mainland China • Why Taiwan has only been governed alongside China for brief periods • How WWII decisions shaped modern territorial claims • Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power and rise of hardline nationalism • The role of ideology in shaping CCP domestic and foreign policy • Reciprocity and how the U.S. should approach China strategically Hayton also explains how these narratives are actively reinforced today — from education campaigns to political messaging — to create cohesion, justify policy, and shape how both Chinese citizens and the outside world understand China. The conversation highlights a critical takeaway: without questioning these foundational assumptions, policymakers risk misunderstanding China’s intentions, overestimating historical inevitabilities, and limiting strategic flexibility. 00:00 — Intro + Bill Hayton joins the China Desk 00:33 — Background and journalism career 05:04 — How The Invention of China came together 06:06 — South China Sea research and historical gaps 07:09 — Questioning accepted historical narratives 08:20 — The invention of “China” as a concept 10:59 — Why “China” wasn’t historically a unified nation 12:16 — Dynasties vs modern nation-state thinking 14:01 — Foreign influence on Chinese nationalism 16:23 — The “5,000 years of history” narrative explained 17:18 — Race, identity, and the Yellow Emperor myth 19:25 — National humiliation as a unifying tool 21:28 — Why historical narratives bind populations 24:19 — The invention of Han ethnicity 26:39 — Political motivations behind ethnic identity 28:55 — Reception and backlash to the book 32:34 — Taiwan: history vs modern claims 34:17 — Why Taiwan wasn’t central to China historically 36:37 — WWII and shifting territorial narratives 37:50 — Modern CCP narratives on Taiwan 39:34 — Xi Jinping and rising nationalism 41:17 — Ideology, control, and state power 42:10 — Reciprocity and U.S.–China strategy 45:43 — Final thoughts + where to follow Bill   Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW

Ep. 98 - Guam, Taiwan & China’s Pacific Strategy: What the U.S. Is Missing w/Cleo Paskal

China’s strategy in the Pacific is not just military — it’s political, economic, and deeply embedded in places most Americans rarely think about. In this follow-up episode of The China Desk, host Steve Yates welcomes back Cleo Paskal, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to build on their earlier conversation and go deeper into what a real Pacific conflict could look like — and where the United States is most vulnerable. Paskal explains why any Chinese move on Taiwan would require neutralizing Guam and other U.S. territories in the Pacific, not necessarily through direct military strikes, but through political warfare, infrastructure disruption, and influence operations designed to delay or weaken an American response. A major focus of the conversation is the vulnerability of U.S. territories like the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), where visa policies, corruption, and weak enforcement mechanisms have created potential entry points for Chinese influence and intelligence activity. The discussion also explores: • Why Guam is central to any Taiwan conflict scenario • How China uses political warfare to undermine U.S. military advantage • The role of U.S. Pacific territories in national defense strategy • Visa loopholes and security risks in the Northern Mariana Islands • How corruption acts as an entry point for CCP influence • Why Americans misunderstand the geography of their own country • The importance of the Pacific as a strategic “corridor” • How China studies World War II strategy in the Pacific • The concept of disabling infrastructure without triggering war • What a “block and build” strategy looks like in practice • How the U.S. can support allies like Palau under pressure • When economic ties with China become a strategic liability • The risks exposed by the Diego Garcia debate and UK policy decisions • Why allied coordination is critical in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict Paskal also highlights how gaps in U.S. awareness — both among policymakers and the public — have allowed key vulnerabilities to persist, particularly in overlooked territories that play outsized roles in national security. The conversation concludes with a stark warning: if the United States does not address corruption, policy blind spots, and strategic neglect in the Pacific, it risks creating vulnerabilities not just for itself, but for its allies across the region. 00:00 — Intro + Cleo Paskal returns to the China Desk 01:28 — Recap of Episode 89 and Pacific strategy framework 02:14 — Taiwan conflict scenario: why Guam matters 04:13 — Political warfare vs kinetic warfare 06:23 — Disabling Guam without triggering U.S. response 07:50 — Cognitive warfare and shaping U.S. public opinion 09:35 — CNMI visa loopholes and security risks 11:11 — Chinese access to U.S. territory explained 12:16 — Policy failures and lack of enforcement 13:54 — Why the Pacific is overlooked in U.S. strategy 14:42 — How maps distort American understanding 16:28 — Rethinking U.S. geography and strategic positioning 19:03 — Historical roots of U.S. Pacific strategy 20:27 — “Block and build” strategy explained 21:30 — Palau agreements and countering CCP influence 23:09 — Supporting allies through stability and security 25:29 — When economic ties become strategic risk 26:12 — UK, China, and the Diego Garcia controversy 29:08 — Legal, military, and nuclear implications 31:06 — Iran conflict and alliance reliability concerns 33:00 — Risks of dependence on allies in conflict 34:56 — Corruption risks in CNMI and governance failures 37:04 — Final warning: systemic vulnerabilities in U.S. strategy 38:44 — Closing thoughts and where to follow Cleo Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW