CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
Recorded 05/15/2026, Aired 05/19/2026 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins answer what a strong El Niño could mean for the monsoon. They do a quick recap of the first half of May. And then it’s off to the races with a look at: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, ONI vs. RONI, ENSO’s scientific history, monsoon and its interaction with East Pacific tropical activity, then finally a winter preview. Should be a fun and interesting few seasons to watch unfold! Also, Zack gives a plug for the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game [https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home] which will include a new weekly tournament feature this year. Mentions NOAA CPC - ENSO Strength Probabilities [https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/] Tropical Tidbits [https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/] WebberWeather [https://x.com/webberweather] NOAA CPC - Outlooks [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/] Google - Weather Lab: Cyclones [https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab] Paper “North American Monsoon Response to Antecedent Soil Moisture and Snow in the Colorado Plateau” [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024JD043026] Paper “Tropical Ocean Contributions to California’s Surprisingly Dry El Niño of 2015/16” [https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/24/jcli-d-17-0177.1.xml]
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