The Horn of Africa Crisis the West is getting completely wrong

The Sudan war explained: Siege, drones, and regional power struggles

This week on Conflict of Interests, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure. They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. The conversation explores the roles of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, and asks why geopolitics continues to outweigh humanitarian concerns. The episode also turns to Iran, where the funeral of the country's supreme leader drew vast crowds and raised fresh questions about the future of the regime, domestic support, and what comes next after the war. From Tehran to Khartoum, this episode unpacks the power politics driving today's conflicts—and why understanding them means looking far beyond the battlefield. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

Iran attacked: What the weekend strikes reveal and Britain's anti-migration moment

The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can push?  Britain's anti-migration fracture has moved from political rhetoric to street-level reality — and with the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years about to take office, the question isn't whether it escalates, but where.  This week, Clionadh and Bron break down the weekend's strikes on Iran, why the Hormuz closure matters more than the bombs, and what the MoU's fragility tells us about who really holds the cards. They look at why Tehran gains from the chaos, what the US retaliation did and didn't achieve, and why a ceasefire that was always a stopgap is now visibly in question.  They also explore the UK's anti-migration escalation, examine how one attack spiraled into nationwide unrest, and connect the deeper thread: state failure, institutional decay, and the erosion of public trust, at home and abroad. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

Iran deal confusion, Starmer out, Colombia’s rightward shift, and UK anti-migration anger

The talks are “looking good”, according to Washington. Iran wants sanctions relief, Trump looks desperate to get out, and Israel is still not convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending — or is Tehran walking away with the money, the leverage, and most of the cards? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron unpack the latest US-Iran talks in Switzerland, why the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz matters, and what this supposed progress really amounts to. They look at whether Trump is trying to wash his hands of a war he failed to finish, why Lebanon remains a major fault line in any agreement, and why a deal that sounds stabilising on paper could leave Iran in a much stronger position in practice. They also discuss Colombia’s rightward turn and what a tougher security agenda could mean for violence and the state, before turning to Keir Starmer’s resignation, rising anti-migration tensions in the UK, and what Britain’s increasingly combustible political mood might produce next. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

Is this the end of the Iran war?

The US says a deal is close. Iran wants sanctions relief. Israel isn't convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending, or are we just entering a new phase? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the latest ceasefire negotiations, why Pakistan has become a key diplomatic player, what reopening the Strait of Hormuz really means, and why peace agreements can be far more fragile than they appear. They also discuss the latest tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, why some conflicts never really end, and the World Cup moments everyone is talking about, from Scotland's historic win to the DRC fans stealing the show.  For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]

The Horn of Africa Crisis the West is getting completely wrong

The Horn of Africa is the most consequential and least understood region in the world right now and Western analysis is making it worse. In this episode, ACLED founder Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's regional experts to break down dynamics in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Russia and China are watching. But it's the UAE and Saudi Arabia that are in the room, funding factions, brokering deals, and projecting power in ways that Western foreign policy simply isn't built to see. They discuss why the Sudan conflict defies standard narratives about civil war, what the Ethiopia war reveals about the limits of international intervention and how Eritrea's role is almost entirely absent from Western coverage.  Plus - with eyes on Iran and the Middle East, why The Gulf states' strategic interests remain in the Horn. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube.  Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED [https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED] 📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok? [https://www.tiktok.com/@conflictsofinterestacled?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc]