Decidedly I Decision Tips for Business Owners
Are you as good at making decisions as you think you are? đ€ In this replay of the Decidedly Podcast, we sit down with repeat guest Don Moore, UC Berkeley professor and author of Perfectly Confident and Decision Leadership, to unpack the hidden dangers of overconfidence and overprecision in business, investing, parenting, and everyday life. Youâll learn: â What the DunningâKruger effect really means (and how to spot it in yourself) â Why most people are too sure about their decisions â and what that costs them â How probabilistic thinking can sharpen your choices in business and beyond â The difference between confidence that fuels success vs. confidence that blinds you â Real-world examples: from parenting choices to market predictions to AI hallucinations If youâve ever wondered why smart people still make bad decisions â and how to avoid being one of them â this conversation is packed with actionable wisdom.  â â SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE WEEKLY NEWSLETTERâ â [https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/su/4veR8tV/decidedlypodcast] CHAPTERS 00:00 â Intro: Defeating bad decision-making in life & business 02:00 â Why new parents are overconfident 05:30 â The Dunning-Kruger effect in parenting and beyond 07:40 â What is over-precision, and why does it matter? 12:20 â The dangers of overconfidence in business and investing 16:55 â Why successful people struggle with decision-making 19:20 â The power of having language for decision-making biases 21:45 â How thinking in probabilities leads to better choices 24:05 â Market predictions, uncertainty, and decision paralysis 26:20 â How hobbies and competition keep us humble 28:50 â The behaviors that make people more (or less) overconfident 31:05 â The surprising gift of criticism 33:25 â Parenting, teenage rebellion, and overconfidence 36:50 â Overconfidence in parenting decisions 39:10 â Avoiding regret and learning from imperfect decisions 41:20 â Why most people misinterpret their financial wins 43:45 â Is AI overconfident? The risk of machine-generated certainty 46:00 â The problem with certainty in AI, investing, and life 48:30 â Why demanding 100% certainty keeps you stuck 50:30 â What Sanger has learned from hosting Decidedly 55:10 â The importance of embracing uncertainty in business and life 57:35 â Donâs top decision-making tip for business owners 57:47 â Where to connect with Don Moore 58:16 â Key Takeaways 59:29 â Message from the Producer  CONNECT WITH US â â www.decidedlypodcast.comâ â [http://www.decidedlypodcast.com] â Watch this episode on YouTubeâ [https://youtu.be/zhq68fRFz8o] Subscribe on â â YouTubeâ [https://www.youtube.com/@decidedlypodcast?sub_confirmation=1] Join us on â â Instagramâ â [https://www.instagram.com/decidedlypodcast/]: @decidedlypodcast Join us on â â Facebookâ â [https://www.facebook.com/decidedlypodcast] Shawnâs â â Instagramâ â [https://www.instagram.com/shawn_d_smith/]: @shawn_d_smith Sangerâs â â Instagramâ â [https://www.instagram.com/sangersmith/]: @sangersmith  SANGERâS BOOK:â â A Life Rich with Significance: Transforming Your Wealth to Meaningful Impactâ â [https://www.amazon.com/Life-Rich-Significance-Transforming-Meaningful/dp/1952654769]  SHAWNâS BOOK: â â Plateau Jumping: What to Change When Change Is What You Wantâ â [https://www.amazon.com/Plateau-Jumping-What-Change-When-ebook/dp/B0CTXHP5HR]  MAKING A FINANCIAL DECISION? At â â Decidedly Wealth Managementâ â [https://www.decidedlywealth.com], we focus on decision-making as the foundational element of success, in our effort to empower families to purposefully apply their wealth to fulfill their values and build a thriving legacy. LEARN MORE: â â www.decidedlywealth.comâ â [http://www.decidedlywealth.com]  CONNECT WITH DON MOORE Donâs Faculty Website: â https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/â [https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/] Donâs Lab Website: â https://learnmoore.org/â [https://learnmoore.org/] X: @donandrewmoore LinkedIn: â https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/â [https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/] Books: â https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&ref_=ap_rdrâ [https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&ref_=ap_rdr]  Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth.⯠He is only occasionally overconfident.
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