Down on the Farm Podcast 6/9/26: Mailbag Edition! Walk Rates, Hindcasting, and Swing Profile Analysis

Down on the Farm Podcast 6/9/26: Mailbag Edition! Walk Rates, Hindcasting, and Swing Profile Analysis

This week on the Down on the Farm Podcast, we open the mailbag to answer questions from our Substack subscribers and followers on X and Bluesky. We talk about walk rates, when and why they matter, and why we can’t transpose MLB free pass expectations onto minor league prospects. We then move on to our hindcasting strategies and discuss how we construct and improve our models. We conclude by talking about swing types and hitting profiles, and what types of swings we like to see given a player’s skillset. One size does not fit all! We hope you enjoy. Thanks, as always, to Laura van der Heijden [https://www.lauravanderheijden.uk/] for her stellar jingle work! Get full access to Down on the Farm at downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe [https://downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Down on the Farm Podcast 6/2/26: EVs Change Lives, Quad-A Fantasy Assets, To Send or Not to Send

This week on the Down on the Farm Podcast, we dive into the profiles of a pair of minor league breakouts: the newly promoted Jacob Gonzalez (CWS) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Jacob%20Gonzalez] and Triple-A destroying Seaver King (WAS) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Seaver%20King]. They’ve flourished as they’ve added power, turning uninspiring out-producing hitting profiles into RBI-hunting MLB-quality production. We then take a peek at two of our favorite older prospects on the cusp of the show to see if Abimelec Ortiz (WAS) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Abimelec%20Ortiz] or James Tibbs III (LAD) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/James%20Tibbs%20III]is worth your fantasy attention. Finally, we discuss the firing of the Giants’ third base coach, Hector Borg [https://x.com/BNightengale/status/2060452305749897543], and why third base coaches minimize mistakes to avoid criticism. We invoke our first-ever Down on the Farm piece on send decisions [https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/how-caution-is-costing-teams-on-the] to argue that the numbers encourage a level of send/hold aggression that, under the current standard, would get coaches run out of town. We hope you enjoy. Thanks, as always, to Laura van der Heijden [https://www.lauravanderheijden.uk/] for her stellar jingle work! Get full access to Down on the Farm at downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe [https://downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Down on the Farm Podcast 5/26/26: Deadline Deals, Rankings Audit Recap, Deep Deep Diving

This week on the Down on the Farm Podcast, we look forward to the trade deadline and speculate which prospects may (and may not) be on the move. Will A. J. Preller make another unexpected move? We then reflect on our rankings audit article [https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-rankings-audit-how-good-are-mainstream], discussing the strengths and weaknesses of FanGraphs’, MLB Pipeline’s, and Baseball America’s ranking systems. We finish by looking at some low-level, small-sample standouts who would make excellent fantasy adds for those in ultra-deep, 50+ prospect leagues. We hope you enjoy. Thanks, as always, to Laura van der Heijden [https://www.lauravanderheijden.uk/] for her stellar jingle work! Get full access to Down on the Farm at downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe [https://downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Down on the Farm Podcast 5/19/26: Fitz-Gerald's Hot Run, Buried Treasure, Young Yo-Yos

This week on the Down on the Farm Podcast, we get into the Nationals’ Devin Fitz-Gerald [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Devin%20Fitz%20Gerald]’s red-hot power surge and why he’s flashing the same tools that made Kevin McGonigle [https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kevin-mcgonigle/33572/stats/batting] a top Tigers bat in year one. We continue the Fitz-Gerald talk by discussing the Nationals/Rangers MacKenzie Gore [https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mackenzie-gore/22201/stats/pitching] swap, and what teams can do to nab gems deep in trades, as Washington did with Fitz-Gerald and Yeremy Cabrera [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Yeremy%20Cabrera]. We finish by discussing a pair of 2025 draft standouts who are new to our model, and why their projections are in a current state of flux. We hope you enjoy. Thanks, as always, to Laura van der Heijden [https://www.lauravanderheijden.uk/] for her stellar jingle work! Get full access to Down on the Farm at downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe [https://downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Down on the Farm Podcast 5/12/26: Bounceback Candidates, Called-Up Fantasy Options, Bailey Beef

This week on the Down on the Farm Podcast, we discuss a pair of struggling prospects that we’ve been high on for years (Ryan Clifford (NYM) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Ryan%20Clifford] and Jadher Areinamo (TBR) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Jadher%20Areinamo]) and why they’re far from cooked. We also look at an exciting pair of call-ups in Spencer Jones (NYY) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Spencer%20Jones] and Ryan Waldschmidt (ARI) [https://oysteranalytics.com/#Player-Cards/Ryan%20Waldschmidt] and why they’re outside shots to be immediate go-to fantasy options (in most leagues). We finish by discussing Andrew Baggarly’s piece [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7267303/2026/05/10/giants-loss-boo-birds-bryce-eldridge/] outlining Buster Posey’s perspective on the “optics” of Patrick Bailey [https://www.fangraphs.com/players/patrick-bailey/27478/stats/batting]’s catching work amidst his trade to Cleveland, and why Posey’s priorities are divorced from the data. We hope you enjoy. Thanks, as always, to Laura van der Heijden [https://www.lauravanderheijden.uk/] for her stellar jingle work! Get full access to Down on the Farm at downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe [https://downonthefarm.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]