“animal welfare has an evidence problem” by matthes

“Coming Around To Political Donations” by Jeff Kaufman 🔸

Five years ago I read a post on the EA Forum arguing that "election campaign contributions might be a way in which you can have a substantial impact as a small donor". It struck me as weird but plausible: a combination that you see a lot of on the Forum. A few months later I read another post, a case for Carrick Flynn in particular. It made a lot of sense, but while I don't remember my specific reservations I do remember not being convinced initially. After a lot of talking with Julia and others, however, this campaign did seem like a really promising opportunity. Six days later we made the donation: We hadn't donated to a political campaign since college, but Julia was impressed with this candidate's work on pandemic preparedness, which is an area we've both thought was important for a long time. In general, we prefer to donate through funds because they are able to put a lot more time and attention into identifying excellent donation opportunities, but campaign finance rules mean this model doesn't work for political donations. Flynn lost, and not for lack of funding. People took away a range of lessons (see the [...] --- First published: June 6th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YYNH5uvmmaEKi4h2m/coming-around-to-political-donations [https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YYNH5uvmmaEKi4h2m/coming-around-to-political-donations?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration].

“animal welfare has an evidence problem” by matthes

Why I stopped donating to animal welfare charities but feel more motivated than ever to redirect money and talent to the cause. I have wanted to write this post for a while. It is an uncomfortable thing to bring up. Many people in the animal welfare space are working really hard, and this post might leave some feeling defeated. But I think this is one of the most important things to talk about in animal welfare right now. My intention is not to be a downer or create infighting. Instead, I hope this post inspires lots of people to tackle this major neglected problem. key takeaways  * Even some of the most prominent animal welfare interventions have surprisingly weak evidence behind them. In some cases, the available evidence even suggests that the intervention may be causing harm. * Specifically * We have very limited data on electrical shrimp stunning that doesn't support a confident conclusion as to whether it's good or bad. * We have mixed evidence on whether transitioning egg producers to cage-free improves welfare overall. * We have evidence that the substitution effect of alternative proteins is weak, at best. * Significant additional funding and talent should be allocated to raise [...] --- Outline: (00:44) key takeaways (01:45) introduction (02:29) three salient animal welfare interventions and their evidence bases (03:17) shrimp stunning and slaughter (11:01) cage-free (20:29) alternative proteins (21:47) this is a field-wide problem (22:18) my recommendations to funders (22:22) animal welfare should not be de-funded (23:36) we should be taking ownership of the entire evidence pipeline (24:49) when bet making doesn't make sense (25:38) conclusion --- First published: June 5th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/animal-welfare-has-an-evidence-problem [https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/animal-welfare-has-an-evidence-problem?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: From the Research Results Report Appendix by CSES. A comparison of cumulative mortality.CC = conventional cages; EC = furnished/enriched cages; AV = cage-free aviaries [https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/kaiafcaaokvvalamfb35]https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/kaiafcaaokvvalamfb35 ---------------------------------------- Time series of cumulative layer mortality rate (standardised to 60 week mortality and double arcsine transformed). [https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/fz5asmvrvmkmwuahkiur]https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/fz5asmvrvmkmwuahkiur ---------------------------------------- From the 2017 ITAVI report. The vertical axis is in percent.pondeuses sol = cage-free (indoor); pondeuses plein air = free-range; pondeuses label = free-range (premium label); pondeuses biologiques = organic; anciennes cages = conventional cages; cages aménagées = furnished cages [https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/j5n11l24wfhqeamfpwlo]https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/j5n11l24wfhqeamfpwlo ---------------------------------------- Data from the supplementary material of the meta-analysis. Cumulative transformed 60w mortality in percent. CC = conventional cage; FC = furnished cage; AV = aviary (all types); ST = single tier aviary; MT = multi tier aviaryorange = evidence for higher mortality in cage-free systems; blue = evidence for higher mortality in caged systems; grey = no significant difference [https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/wnealnrmcupwditrhrb6]https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/svjqgyFuFQ34qSgmw/wnealnrmcupwditrhrb6 Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

“After making sure we don’t all die, this should be the first priority” by Yaqi Grover

A new article went viral on Twitter today: Nan Ransohoff's "The Third Wave of American Philanthropy" (link). Worth reading first. Nan is right about the shape of what's coming: hundreds of billions in new philanthropic capital, no ecosystem yet to absorb it, and a shortage of builders and organizations. I very much agree with that sentiment and the direction. More money, more people willing to start things, more urgency. But the conclusion I draw is almost the opposite. The new philanthropic wave shouldn't go hunting for new problems. Far more of it should go to animals. There are literally trillions of lives suffering so gravely in all corners of the world. The future is still incredibly grim; AI can impose even more significant suffering if we don't do it right. "Animal welfare" isn't one solved issue to cross off: it's where most of the sentience and suffering is, and where we should be looking. Animals are not one solved issue. It's not one issue EAs recognized the importance of animal suffering – factory farming, wild animal suffering – long before the rest of the world, which still has not really recognized its importance. That was the insight. And [...] --- Outline: (01:10) Animals are not one solved issue. It's not one issue (02:03) The problems are staring right at us (04:12) AI x Animals (05:23) Stop looking past them --- First published: May 20th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HFkrGGGjbM7gFcQGD/after-making-sure-we-don-t-all-die-this-should-be-the-first [https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HFkrGGGjbM7gFcQGD/after-making-sure-we-don-t-all-die-this-should-be-the-first?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration].

“My disagreements with CEA’s approach to stewarding EA” by hbesceli

[Cross posted from my substack] In their EA Forum post last year, CEA described their ‘principles-first approach to stewardship of the EA community’. I'm a big fan of principles-first stewardship in principle. I think EA needs a steward, and I think that stewardship should be organised around EA's core principles. But I think CEA's particular growth-centric approach to principles-first stewardship is stewarding EA in the wrong direction. I think that: The key question for principles-first stewardship should be "Is EA a place that embodies and nurtures EA principles?" I think there are serious reasons to worry that it isn't such a place - that EA has become more ideological and less truth-seeking over time, and that growth focused approaches to community building like CEAs are a big part of the reason why. A summary of my main points: * It seems to me that EA is dying. I’m less concerned here about growth metrics, and more concerned about the health of EA as a community and a moral/ intellectual project. It seems to me that EA is losing its question-nature, and also has become something that people are less and less willing to stand behind or participate [...] --- Outline: (04:16) It seems to me that EA is dying (05:05) EA as a question (06:26) EA as a community (07:30) Various posts which inform my conception of EA death (08:42) Growth is not "Community Building 101" (10:20) The growth funnel model is in tension with open truth-seeking (10:25) Targeting high impact careers and donations (13:04) Selection effects (15:20) Growth is only good if EA is functioning well (17:23) EA community building doesn't serve the people who embody EA most deeply (20:01) FTX was a trust problem, not just a brand problem (22:14) CEA's brand strategy is in tension with open truth-seeking (24:33) What principles-first stewardship could look like --- First published: May 28th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xsffhcHoexJgH4h4X/my-disagreements-with-cea-s-approach-to-stewarding-ea [https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xsffhcHoexJgH4h4X/my-disagreements-with-cea-s-approach-to-stewarding-ea?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration].

“Donating 80% While It Still Counts” by Jeff Kaufman 🔸

Julia and I had been giving half since 2014, but in 2025 we drew on our savings to donate 81%. It looks to us like we're in a critical window for keeping the introduction of very powerful AI systems from being disastrous, and we want to do what we can while we still can. Here's what that looks like in the context of our overall spending: We've been prioritizing donations for a long time, but it feels very different now because of the AI boom. Some of this is that people who've made money in the boom will likely be giving more soon, and so money spent now can help set up organizations to spend future money more effectively. But more importantly, this is a key window of opportunity: transformative AI is coming very quickly, for better or worse. We want to push hard for "better". If you compare to previous years (2024, 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014), we're donating a lot less than we used to in absolute terms: Until mid-2022 I was working at a big tech company, optimizing to maximize donations, and now I'm at a non-profit. This means we're giving a larger fraction, but of [...] --- Outline: (04:07) Evaluating Predictions (06:14) Making New Predictions (08:11) Details --- First published: May 26th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CmpfM8dubqsqEQic7/donating-80-while-it-still-counts [https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CmpfM8dubqsqEQic7/donating-80-while-it-still-counts?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Bar graph titled [https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/b08yraqbvjb7bgqocrkc]https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/b08yraqbvjb7bgqocrkc ---------------------------------------- Bar graph titled [https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/p6bjkihefbpjbbcpottx]https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/p6bjkihefbpjbbcpottx ---------------------------------------- Line graph titled [https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/nmp6aaps6fghrx28owjl]https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/nmp6aaps6fghrx28owjl ---------------------------------------- Line graph titled [https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/olwnivtxdunfjvmm91ks]https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mAhCkK5iBuZvCbFey/olwnivtxdunfjvmm91ks Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.