Erik van Mechelen - Essays and Fiction

Allons Travailler! 001: Theseus's Ship has Sailed, Book Review of 'The Strange Death of Europe'

15 min · 6 de sep de 2017
Portada del episodio Allons Travailler! 001: Theseus's Ship has Sailed, Book Review of 'The Strange Death of Europe'

Descripción

Theseus’s Ship has Sailed: Book Review of “The Strange Death of Europe” Douglas Murray urges readers to take notice of the fatal blow Europe’s politicians have already dealt the European civilization.

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episode Allons Travailler! 004 - All of Life is a Wager (Super Forecasting by Philip E. Tetlock) artwork

Allons Travailler! 004 - All of Life is a Wager (Super Forecasting by Philip E. Tetlock)

If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’. Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner have given us an interesting way to practice doing so in their book, Super Forecasting. In their story about a relatively small group of super forecasters who beat IARPA’s own government-backed researchers in a tournament of geopolitical forecasting, Tetlock and Gardner provide a blueprint for beginning one’s own journey of forecasting better than the average human (or at least better than you yourself do now). You can support my work at https://patreon.com/evm/

15 de sep de 201714 min