Iowa Down Ballot
Pre-Primary Palooza: What to Watch Tuesday Night A new poll from JMC Analytics has Zach Lahn at 24%, Feenstra at 22%, and Steen at 15% — with 27% still undecided. We’re not putting too much weight in it, but it would explain why Feenstra went negative this week, hitting Lahn over a past investment in a men’s health company. Frontrunners don’t attack candidates they aren’t worried about. An outside group sharing a consultant with the Lahn campaign also launched its own immigration hit on Feenstra, so the gloves are off heading into Tuesday. Steen has the Family Leader network behind him, which has powered late surges before — but without TV money, he risks losing anti-Feenstra voters to Lahn if they consolidate around the more viable option. Dave stopped by a Feenstra house party Wednesday night and came away puzzled. Terry Branstad, the Lt. Governor, the Secretary of Ag — a full Republican who’s who — but no energy, no closing argument, just the standard Pizza Ranch stump speech. Meanwhile Lahn has been packing town halls with 100-150 people. The contrast is hard to ignore. On the Democratic side, VoteVets has dropped $10 million since mid-March for Josh Turek — more than Hubbell spent in all of 2018. Zach Wahls has the Iowa résumé and is leaning on an outsider frame, but electability seems to be the real tiebreaker for Democratic primary voters, and that spending has erased Turek’s early name ID gap fast. We’ll know a lot more by next week. See you then. A huge thank you to everyone who has already become a paid subscriber — your support is what keeps this conversation going. If you’ve been listening and haven’t yet, please consider subscribing or making a one-time donation through the link below. We’ve got a big year of Iowa politics ahead and we don’t want to stop now. Auto-generated transcript below: 00:00:39.840 --> 00:00:49.230 Dave Price: Hi everyone, welcome to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. This is our pre-primary election Extravaganza. 10 00:00:49.350 --> 00:00:55.330 Dave Price: Hi, I’m Dave Price, joined by Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. Hello, ladies, how are you? 11 00:00:55.660 --> 00:01:02.849 Kathie Obradovich: Hello. Happy Friday. I think Primary Palooza is what we want to go with, don’t you think? 12 00:01:02.850 --> 00:01:04.859 Dave Price: Like, let’s start this sucker over again. 13 00:01:05.080 --> 00:01:05.989 Kathie Obradovich: No, no, no, no. 14 00:01:05.990 --> 00:01:11.849 Dave Price: I dug out… I was trying to think of a prop, you know, I keep different things. 15 00:01:11.850 --> 00:01:12.640 Laura Belin: This is from… 16 00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:17.069 Dave Price: there was, way back in the day. 17 00:01:17.240 --> 00:01:33.119 Dave Price: Back in my hometown in southern Illinois, Belleville, Illinois, there was a longtime member of Congress named Mel Price, Melvin Price. I do not believe we were related to him in any way, but, 18 00:01:33.190 --> 00:01:48.070 Dave Price: my dad was sort of, like, both ways. Like, for a while, he was involved in Democratic politics when he worked for this stove company, and he was, he worked, I remember once a month on Saturdays working for the union, and then he was kind of one of those, 19 00:01:48.070 --> 00:01:55.170 Dave Price: He got laid off during the Carter administration, he flipped over and became one of these Reagan Democrats and kind of stuck with… 20 00:01:55.420 --> 00:02:01.079 Dave Price: the Republicans most of the rest of his life, although he was a Ross Perot guy in there, too. My dad was a… 21 00:02:01.180 --> 00:02:15.670 Dave Price: He was a fascinating swing voter over the time. I should have… I wish I would have recorded more stories with him before he passed away. But anyway, this is my… I’ve always kept this, and since it doesn’t say Mel on there, then… 22 00:02:15.670 --> 00:02:16.700 Laura Belin: That’s right. 23 00:02:17.290 --> 00:02:20.559 Dave Price: when I… when I… when I launch one day. 24 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:31.959 Kathie Obradovich: I could be your running mate, Dave, because I received a fortune in a fortune cookie just the other day that says, your determination will lead to victory in November. 25 00:02:31.960 --> 00:02:33.550 Dave Price: So… 26 00:02:34.510 --> 00:02:44.530 Kathie Obradovich: I don’t know whose fortune cookie I got, it clearly wasn’t intended for me, but it’s like, okay, I guess we’ve got a sort of a political bent here, so… 27 00:02:44.530 --> 00:02:52.939 Dave Price: A bunch of candidates who, who watch this podcast when it drops will probably reach out to you. Can we please have that fortune from you? 28 00:02:53.930 --> 00:02:57.720 Dave Price: Before Tuesday night. Hey, as we’re… 29 00:02:57.970 --> 00:03:20.430 Dave Price: as we’re gathering here, and we are gathering on… on Friday morning, there is a new poll that’s dropped, and Laura, maybe you can start us off. Can you be our asterisk, as we talk about this poll? Because this is a company that we don’t frankly know a lot about, and we are going to intentionally not put too much weight into this. 30 00:03:20.430 --> 00:03:26.039 Dave Price: It is one… new facet, perhaps, in this Republican gubernatorial race. 31 00:03:26.230 --> 00:03:37.469 Dave Price: But if it is true, or if it maybe has picked up on something, it does maybe make some sense with some recent developments that we’ve seen here, right? 32 00:03:37.620 --> 00:03:38.240 Laura Belin: Right. 33 00:03:38.530 --> 00:04:03.490 Laura Belin: So, JMC Analytics and Polling, and they say in their polling memo that they are not affiliated with any candidate running for governor or Senate in Iowa. So, they commissioned this poll of the Republican primary, and the big, shocking top line is that they found Zach Lane with 24% support, Randy Feenstra with 22%, and Adam Steen in third place. 34 00:04:03.490 --> 00:04:15.099 Laura Belin: with 15%, and then a huge number, 27%, undecided. So, if true, that would be very big, and, of course. 35 00:04:15.100 --> 00:04:39.979 Laura Belin: we’ve been saying for a while that Zach Lane, one of his big challenges would be to get his name ID up and consolidate support to allow him to overtake Feenstra, and this would suggest that all of his big spending on digital ads and TV ads may be paying off. Now, the Senate race was a little more of a snooze, with Ashley Henson way ahead, 58% to 19% over Jim Carlin, which is kind of 36 00:04:39.980 --> 00:04:42.640 Laura Belin: in line with, I think, what people would expect. 37 00:04:42.850 --> 00:04:43.580 Dave Price: And… 38 00:04:43.580 --> 00:05:01.400 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, so, I mean, if this poll is accurate, two things really jump out at me. One, of course, is that Zach Lane has moved into the lead, but two, nobody had 35%, which is what you need to win a primary. That big, undecided 39 00:05:01.440 --> 00:05:19.579 Kathie Obradovich: block, also means that, you know, regardless of what the polls say, it’s still… and this is always really important in primary anyway, it’s still about getting your voters out. So, who has the best, get out the vote? Is, you know, does Zach Lane, can he… 40 00:05:19.690 --> 00:05:30.150 Kathie Obradovich: stand up? Can his get-out-the-vote effort stand up to a really experienced politician like Randy Feenstrod? But, you know, it raises some really interesting questions, I think. 41 00:05:30.280 --> 00:05:48.079 Dave Price: And the get-out-the-vote, as we’ve talked about throughout this podcast, it is the test for Feenstra. Can he translate what he’s pulled off in the fourth, where Republicans always do well in the way that district is? Is it 36 counties, is that right? 42 00:05:48.080 --> 00:05:49.170 Laura Belin: 36 now, yes. 43 00:05:49.170 --> 00:06:09.199 Dave Price: 36 of the 99, so geographically, just a humongous chunk, but it is so heavily Republican there. So Feenstrait’s challenge all throughout has been the other three congressional districts, where would he turn out people there, but also really has to juice his numbers in the fourth, if he can do that, to try to up his game. 44 00:06:09.200 --> 00:06:17.839 Laura Belin: Well, and I don’t know that he can, because remember 2 years ago, he had a primary opponent, Kevin Virgil, who was backed by Steve King. 45 00:06:17.840 --> 00:06:36.569 Laura Belin: And Feenstra won that primary only by 60% to 40% against a guy, you know, hardly anyone had ever heard of 6 months before the primary, who Feenstra outspent by 10 to 1, or maybe more. So I don’t know that he can really count on Northwest Iowa being this solid base of support for him. 46 00:06:37.750 --> 00:06:39.470 Dave Price: Kathie, you saw the… 47 00:06:39.970 --> 00:06:58.990 Kathie Obradovich: I was just gonna say, I mean, it’s a huge geographic area, but, but, you know, you look at the, you know, the population, you know, it’s just a… the big population centers are all elsewhere in the state, so I… it is… it is difficult, I think, to win… win the state by winning the 4th district. 48 00:06:59.080 --> 00:07:00.160 Kathie Obradovich: So… 49 00:07:00.160 --> 00:07:02.160 Dave Price: Okay, so, let’s… 50 00:07:02.770 --> 00:07:16.660 Dave Price: We can talk about this poll, whether this is or isn’t accurate, and how, and as Laura’s pointed out, 126 times, I feel like, in your columns and on your show this year, it is tough to measure the primary electorate, right? 51 00:07:17.640 --> 00:07:19.369 Dave Price: Okay, so Kathie. 52 00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:22.539 Dave Price: What about here late in the game? 53 00:07:22.800 --> 00:07:32.940 Dave Price: So it would be Wednesday night, Thursday morning, I believe, when this thing dropped, but Feenstra, who from the get-go has been the perceived frontrunner in this race. 54 00:07:32.940 --> 00:07:44.429 Dave Price: he goes negative with an ad against Zach Lane. And just as a little bit of background, this goes back to a story that the Des Moines Register did several weeks back. 55 00:07:44.430 --> 00:07:48.700 Dave Price: that traced some investments, I think it’s a million bucks. 56 00:07:48.780 --> 00:07:57.990 Dave Price: that Lane had in the early part of this decade to a company that was focused on men’s, sexual health. 57 00:07:58.120 --> 00:08:06.600 Dave Price: Not really sure how the… the right way to phrase that. But Lane’s people are saying. 58 00:08:06.760 --> 00:08:11.950 Dave Price: That when the company started, it was more… Making… 59 00:08:12.070 --> 00:08:17.160 Dave Price: Helping men get healthier and stuff, dealing with the stuff that middle-aged and older guys deal with. 60 00:08:17.370 --> 00:08:25.990 Dave Price: When they transitioned more toward the pleasure side, if you will, he got out of there. Okay, so that’s the long-winded setup, so… 61 00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:39.840 Dave Price: what do you make from Feenster going negative, and then essentially in this ad alleging that, hey, Zach Lane says that he’s a guy representing Iowa values, but he put a million bucks into a company that makes sex toys? 62 00:08:40.120 --> 00:08:58.939 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I mean, I think that the top line there is, why would Randy Feensta bother to attack Zach Lane unless they were perceiving some sort of threat? So, you know, in a situation like this, if your opponent is less well-known. 63 00:08:58.940 --> 00:09:23.900 Kathie Obradovich: And, you know, not, you know, without the polling that we’ve just been talking about, I think you’re better off ignoring him as… and that’s been Randy Fink’s strategy all along, right? Ignoring his primary opponents and going, you know, looking beyond them to the general election. This runs against that strategy, and so I can only conclude that they’ve decided 64 00:09:23.900 --> 00:09:27.920 Kathie Obradovich: that Zach Lane is a threat, and that they need to try to knock him down. 65 00:09:29.070 --> 00:09:52.539 Laura Belin: On the latest On Iowa Politics podcast, Tom Barden of the Cedar Rapids Gazette said that he’s been talking with Republican activists, and they’ve shared some internal polling numbers that suggest that both Feenstra and Lane’s internal polling have Feenstra below 30%, which is… which would explain why Feenster would be going negative against Lane. But there’s also this outside group. 66 00:09:52.540 --> 00:09:58.060 Laura Belin: that just this week started running a hit piece on an attack ad on Feenstra saying that. 67 00:09:58.060 --> 00:10:17.109 Laura Belin: he’s weak on immigration, or that he failed Iowa on immigration. Of course, that’s such a big issue for Republican candidates and politicians, and this added… I… I don’t know all the details about this program. It goes back to when Randy Feenster was the city administrator of Hull. 68 00:10:17.170 --> 00:10:35.130 Laura Belin: I sensed that the ad is a little bit misleading, because it implies that he gave benefits to illegal immigrants, which I think is more like the city had a program to try to be welcoming to immigrants, period, not specifically undocumented immigrants, but in any case. 69 00:10:35.130 --> 00:10:52.120 Laura Belin: According to an Iowa Democratic Party memo, the group that is behind this outside spending ad attacking Randy Feenstra shares a consultant with Zach Lane’s campaign. So, it’s not directly coming from Lane, but that would suggest that Lane’s 70 00:10:52.120 --> 00:10:56.050 Laura Belin: people see an opening and an opportunity to take down Feenstra. 71 00:10:56.300 --> 00:11:15.329 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I mean, if you look at Feenster’s voting record in Congress, he spent 100% with the Trump administration on all the… all the immigration issues, so going back that many years, for a hit on immigration, is, a little surprising to me, so… 72 00:11:15.550 --> 00:11:25.760 Dave Price: Wanted to share two more things about this race. One, and I’m gonna say them both so I don’t forget them both, and I’m guzzling coffee, too, because my dog had me up overnight, so I’m… 73 00:11:25.890 --> 00:11:32.350 Dave Price: I’m still trying to get the neurons firing here, so sorry to be rude, I hate to drink on the podcast, but it’s only coffee. 74 00:11:33.010 --> 00:11:43.470 Dave Price: Two things. We have not yet talked much about Adam Steen, so I wanted to say that before I forget. And then also, I wanted to talk about this house party, 75 00:11:43.620 --> 00:11:52.299 Dave Price: involving Feenster on Wednesday night, so I’m only saying this out loud so you two can please help me remember so I don’t forget either one of those things. Can we do Adam Steen first? Because… 76 00:11:52.410 --> 00:12:07.009 Dave Price: His campaign has intrigued me throughout, in the sense that he has Bob Vanderplatz from the family leader behind him, Steve Days, who used to be a talk show host in Iowa, and now has a national platform. He is also frequently… 77 00:12:07.100 --> 00:12:22.949 Dave Price: talked about and supported, Adam Steen publicly. Dace did, a couple of days ago, do a social media post where he offered a little context on the race, which talked about how Lane was possibly 78 00:12:22.950 --> 00:12:41.280 Dave Price: on the rise, which I thought was interesting to say that in a public setting like that, and he still supports Adam Steen. But what do you two make about this? Now, if that poll that you’re talking about, Laura, is accurate, or has at least picked up a trend here, that could make some sense, right? Like, the… 79 00:12:41.280 --> 00:12:46.310 Dave Price: we’ll see how powerful… what kind of say Bob Vanderplatz has in this state. 80 00:12:46.750 --> 00:12:54.670 Dave Price: But there should be a built-in network if it’s behind Steen, even though he’s not raised a ton of money, there should be some kind of… 81 00:12:54.850 --> 00:12:59.949 Dave Price: Get-out-the-vote kind of apparatus, that he should be a legit 82 00:13:00.880 --> 00:13:04.109 Dave Price: contender in this, in this primary, right? 83 00:13:05.170 --> 00:13:11.179 Dave Price: And it’s hard for us to measure it because the absence of primary polling and all that kind of stuff, but in theory, right? 84 00:13:11.210 --> 00:13:21.550 Laura Belin: We’ve seen candidates with support from that wing of the Iowa GOP have had these late surges, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum… 85 00:13:21.900 --> 00:13:32.980 Laura Belin: Ted Cruz, who won the 2016 caucuses, so definitely that network, that kind of church-affiliated, social conservative network, I think the dangerous thing 86 00:13:33.250 --> 00:13:44.260 Laura Belin: for Steen is that since he doesn’t have the money to compete, he’s run a few TV ads, but really he hasn’t been able to compete with Feenstra and Lane in the paid advertising. 87 00:13:44.260 --> 00:13:44.580 Dave Price: Yeah. 88 00:13:44.580 --> 00:14:04.309 Laura Belin: So, I think that if these undecided voters are… if they start to see Lane as the more credible option to block Randy Feenstra, then Steen might lose some of that support. But he could definitely outperform his polling just based on having that network, which we’ve seen can drive people to the polls in Iowa. 89 00:14:04.530 --> 00:14:12.859 Dave Price: Kathie, our good friend, Kay Henderson from Radio Iowa, had a story this week. She covered one of Steen’s events. 90 00:14:13.150 --> 00:14:30.069 Dave Price: Along with a colleague, I believe, from her radio network, and Steen was lamenting this feeling of apathy that some in the primary universe are feeling, and he acknowledged that’s a challenge, and they’re gonna have to get these people motivated after the… 91 00:14:30.090 --> 00:14:35.810 Dave Price: after the primary and stuff like that. What… what do you… what do you make about… 92 00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:40.160 Dave Price: Where he is in this… in this race. 93 00:14:40.340 --> 00:14:57.800 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I mean, when you think about Steen, you know, the first thing that comes to mind for me is that, you know, he is… he is the ultimate culture warrior, it seems like, in this race, that his… his message has really been steeped in, you know. 94 00:14:57.800 --> 00:15:18.080 Kathie Obradovich: the… and it makes sense, then, that the family leader and the evangelical wing of the party would be backing him, but I mean, it’s really about, Christian values, his claim to fame as the administrator of the administrative services in the Reynolds administration was 95 00:15:18.080 --> 00:15:30.999 Kathie Obradovich: you know, keeping the Satanic Temple from having an event in the capital. So, I mean, I think his, his message is very much focused on that culture, you know, culture division issue. 96 00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:53.939 Kathie Obradovich: Whereas Zach Lane, I think, has most… yes, he’s a conservative, and I would argue that he’s a religious conservative as well, but he has really focused his message more on economic issues, so talking about, you know, big corporations, you know, the, hurting the, family farmer, hurting small business in Iowa. 97 00:15:54.870 --> 00:16:11.920 Kathie Obradovich: And, you know, his approach, and also the environment and health. So these… I think that the messages are fundamentally different, and it could be a sign that the economic message is edging out some of this culture war stuff that we’ve seen. 98 00:16:11.920 --> 00:16:16.770 Kathie Obradovich: Culture War has been really successful over the last, you know. 99 00:16:16.860 --> 00:16:23.460 Kathie Obradovich: decade, but maybe we’re seeing the economic message, sort of surpass that now. 100 00:16:23.460 --> 00:16:32.020 Laura Belin: Well, I just saw somebody linked to… Adam Steen had a campaign video up talking about water quality, and I thought, well, that’s interesting, because… 101 00:16:32.650 --> 00:16:55.810 Laura Belin: Chris Jones and Zach Lane have been stressing that, and I mean, maybe Adamstein feels like that’s an issue he needs to respond on. We don’t normally hear people talking about water quality in a Republican primary, but I just looked up the turnout from the 2022 Republican primary, when just under 200,000 ballots were cast. 102 00:16:55.810 --> 00:17:12.840 Laura Belin: And the overwhelming majority, more than 80% of those, were cast on Election Day, so I think it’s really hard. I was thinking, going into this year, that we could have a really high turnout GOP primary with such a scrambled race for governor, and also open seats, but the congressional races 103 00:17:12.839 --> 00:17:22.080 Laura Belin: have turned out to be, you know, mostly non-competitive primaries, except for in that first district with Miller-Meeks and David Pouch. That’s the only one that’s heavily 104 00:17:22.079 --> 00:17:39.339 Laura Belin: contested, so I just don’t know. I’ve heard that early voting has been very light with Republicans. Of course, we know Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day, so I think that’s just a big question mark for me, is how many people are gonna care enough to show up to cast a ballot in this governor’s race. 105 00:17:39.880 --> 00:17:55.869 Dave Price: Kathie, as we’ve talked about here on the podcast, to sort of add another point to your point, about the cultural issues, that is what’s made me wonder, looking at the field of five, and we haven’t even mentioned Brad Sherman and Eddie Andrews in this podcast yet, but… 106 00:17:56.110 --> 00:18:06.069 Dave Price: I appreciate that if you got all 5 of them together in a room, they might find some nuances where they disagree when it comes to these, more cultural issues. 107 00:18:06.280 --> 00:18:15.430 Dave Price: But by and large, thematically, there wouldn’t be a lot of differences, necessarily. Now, maybe, maybe they talk differently. 108 00:18:15.540 --> 00:18:32.340 Dave Price: Maybe they would take the… I’ve never heard Feenstra talk about his, supportive life at conception, for example, and I think the other four, throughout this campaign have talked about that. So that could be a… that could be a substantial difference, perhaps, with some in the… in the primaries, but… 109 00:18:32.340 --> 00:18:38.110 Dave Price: To your point about, you know, how Steen has kind of really embraced this, no doubt. 110 00:18:38.420 --> 00:18:52.709 Dave Price: But I don’t know that that brings the separation from some of the others, so maybe his effectiveness, and I mean, he is very good, when you watch him. He’s a very good communicator, his presence, you saw that in the debate. 111 00:18:52.710 --> 00:19:06.079 Dave Price: I mean, he is very skilled at that kind of stuff, so maybe the delivery and the network and stuff allows him to maybe do a late-game surge here, a late campaign surge, but I’ve just wondered how he’s going to have that 112 00:19:06.410 --> 00:19:09.750 Dave Price: True separation, but as we also know, though. 113 00:19:10.300 --> 00:19:26.369 Dave Price: you don’t really need to win on Tuesday, you just need to make sure nobody else wins, right? And then you… and then you take your shot with the… with the delegates at the state convention, so you don’t get 35. As long as Feenstra doesn’t get 35, then, you know, you live to see another day. 114 00:19:26.370 --> 00:19:37.650 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, but the convention is such a crapshoot, you know, because, you know, you don’t… first of all, the delegates don’t even have to, I mean. 115 00:19:37.650 --> 00:19:39.640 Dave Price: Anyway, this is your chance, Kevin. 116 00:19:39.640 --> 00:19:43.669 Kathie Obradovich: Well, you’ve already got the bumper sticker, you know? 117 00:19:43.670 --> 00:19:44.040 Dave Price: fortunate. 118 00:19:44.040 --> 00:19:44.760 Kathie Obradovich: You think they missed. 119 00:19:44.760 --> 00:19:45.770 Dave Price: That’s far more powerful. 120 00:19:45.770 --> 00:19:53.669 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, so, I mean, the point being they can nominate some rando, like you and me, and not… 121 00:19:53.670 --> 00:19:55.079 Dave Price: That would be a rando. 122 00:19:55.080 --> 00:20:10.459 Kathie Obradovich: Not even go with the candidates who are actually running in the primary. Not that they… I don’t think we’ve ever seen that happen, but yeah, that’s, you know, so you start thinking about, well, who would have, the best shot? 123 00:20:10.930 --> 00:20:22.540 Kathie Obradovich: in a convention situation, and, you know, it’s hard to say, you know? Again, it’s about who shows up, and whose people show up. I’m hoping… 124 00:20:22.540 --> 00:20:33.559 Kathie Obradovich: that these candidates are all smart enough that they would have a convention strategy, and we have been working on that. But, but yeah, it’s… you know, I think that 125 00:20:33.560 --> 00:20:39.999 Kathie Obradovich: If that poll that we were just talking about is accurate, and everybody is sort of hanging below 126 00:20:40.290 --> 00:20:42.920 Kathie Obradovich: 35%. 127 00:20:43.130 --> 00:21:01.190 Kathie Obradovich: you know, again, I can’t emphasize enough, it’s really about whose people turn out on election day. And, you know, again, I think Steen punches above his weight on Election Day just because of the family leader and their… their get-out-the-vote experience. 128 00:21:01.190 --> 00:21:15.239 Kathie Obradovich: You know, I don’t know what Zach Lane’s Get Out the Vote, operation looks like, but, he’s had a lot of help from Vote Vets and, you know, some third-party or, you know, outside organizations that may… 129 00:21:15.240 --> 00:21:15.580 Dave Price: not. 130 00:21:15.580 --> 00:21:17.329 Kathie Obradovich: Helping with that. 131 00:21:17.330 --> 00:21:19.320 Dave Price: Zach Lane with Boat Bets? 132 00:21:19.540 --> 00:21:23.390 Kathie Obradovich: Oh, no, I’m sorry. No, I’m conflating, 133 00:21:23.390 --> 00:21:23.960 Laura Belin: No, yeah. 134 00:21:23.960 --> 00:21:32.680 Kathie Obradovich: I guess I’m tired, too. He’s had, you know, he’s had some help, too, from some, you know, PAC groups, so… 135 00:21:32.680 --> 00:21:38.670 Laura Belin: He claims to have a big field operation, but, you know, it’s all come together very last minute, so… 136 00:21:38.780 --> 00:21:55.239 Laura Belin: It’s a wild… this is basically the outcome that Rob Sand would want, you know, a scrambled, messy GOP primary, especially if it goes to convention, I think that would be kind of the best possible outcome for Democrats, because 137 00:21:55.240 --> 00:22:02.230 Laura Belin: There are going to be hard feelings, and it’s unpredictable, and it just delays the whole process of Republicans coming together. 138 00:22:02.500 --> 00:22:09.560 Dave Price: Okay, so, I wanted to share one thing, and it’s one of those things that… I don’t know if it’s something or not something. 139 00:22:09.780 --> 00:22:18.789 Dave Price: So I don’t want to overblow it. It’s sort of like the way we’re treating this poll. We don’t want to overblow what this is, and let’s be honest, that’s what we try to do on the podcast anyway here. 140 00:22:18.790 --> 00:22:31.580 Dave Price: Is that… because a lot of this is nuances, right? Like, Laura, you brought up early on, it would be surprising if Lane can be a legit top-tier contender by getting into the race so late, right? 141 00:22:32.160 --> 00:22:40.619 Dave Price: And we will find… that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. He could… he may become the nominee. Like, we did no definitive, like, there’s no way this is gonna happen. 142 00:22:40.740 --> 00:22:47.359 Dave Price: Okay, so this is another one of these things, and I brought it up to you, both of you, privately, before we started the recording. 143 00:22:47.770 --> 00:22:54.480 Dave Price: What I… a good friend of me years ago had recommended, like, in the last week or two of a campaign. 144 00:22:54.660 --> 00:23:01.599 Dave Price: Do your best to get to as many as you can, and, like, talk to people, but sort of get in the back of the room to, like, feel. 145 00:23:02.150 --> 00:23:21.320 Dave Price: like, what does it feel like? Is there juice? Is there not juice? And going way back when Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst reigned in 2014, I remember what that was like, and I remember going to some Braley rallies versus some Ernst rallies, and Ernst, you could feel the juice and energy, and Braley, you could not, right? And I could give a long… 146 00:23:21.320 --> 00:23:29.380 Dave Price: laundry list of things where you could sort of feel that. So I was really trying to do that at the Feenstra event, because Feenstra… 147 00:23:29.390 --> 00:23:36.669 Dave Price: And I don’t pretend to get to every rally, because there’s no way you can in this state, it’s too stinkin’ big, but… 148 00:23:36.910 --> 00:23:50.009 Dave Price: I wanted to see… alright, down the stretch, it’s a Wednesday house party hosted by the mayor of West Des Moines, Russ Trimble, who is also a long-time Senate Republican caucus staffer, and I believe he was on the caucus staff. 149 00:23:50.220 --> 00:23:53.260 Dave Price: when Feenstra was a state senator, I’m pretty sure. 150 00:23:53.260 --> 00:23:54.630 Laura Belin: Yes, he was. 151 00:23:54.630 --> 00:24:04.880 Dave Price: So, he and his wife hosted this party, and it was, as Aaron Murphy, pointed out in his story covering it from Wednesday night, it was sort of like a who’s who, right? 152 00:24:04.880 --> 00:24:15.119 Dave Price: Terry Bransted was there, so it was good to see. He’s had… he’s had a lot of serious health issues. He’s in a wheelchair now, so he really… he’s dealing with a bunch of stuff, but you could tell he was sort of… 153 00:24:15.210 --> 00:24:26.829 Dave Price: I think he was happy to be back in the game, and he was an endorser of Feenstra, and he spoke, before Feenstra did as well. His wife was there, various mayors, metro, city council members. 154 00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:37.409 Dave Price: Lieutenant Governor Chris Knoyer was there, Secretary of Ag Mike Nank was there. The one thing that was interesting to me was that it was definitely not like a pep rally-like… 155 00:24:37.840 --> 00:24:50.499 Dave Price: get out the boat kind of thing at, like, an event center type thing, where you’ve got a bunch of screaming people, let’s go, you know, kind of thing. It… no doubt it was a who’s who kind of thing. 156 00:24:50.590 --> 00:25:03.009 Dave Price: But Feenstra kind of did his standard stump speech at this, which was a lot about his biography, and meeting his wife at a pizza ranch, and all this stuff, and when he worked at the candy company and all that. And I just found it… 157 00:25:03.210 --> 00:25:10.689 Dave Price: Kind of an interesting thing to do so late in the game, that this is how they chose to spend their time. 158 00:25:10.840 --> 00:25:24.289 Dave Price: And it may totally be nothing, and Feanstra gets 42% on primary night, and I’m like, I’m crazy. Like, I’m making something of nothing. But it was just interesting to me that late in the game, this is how they thought 159 00:25:24.970 --> 00:25:31.280 Dave Price: Would be… I don’t know that it was a campaign fundraiser, I didn’t honestly ask, I don’t think it was. 160 00:25:31.540 --> 00:25:34.100 Dave Price: It was just an interesting… 161 00:25:34.300 --> 00:25:39.410 Dave Price: gathering. Like, this felt to me like something you would do maybe 6 months ago? 162 00:25:39.730 --> 00:25:49.060 Dave Price: when you’re maybe giving a little inside strategy to all these VIPs about, here’s what we’re gonna do, and blah blah blah. So I don’t know if it’s anything at all, and I guess we’ll know Tuesday night, but it… 163 00:25:49.060 --> 00:25:49.570 Kathie Obradovich: Cheers. 164 00:25:49.570 --> 00:25:51.580 Dave Price: Struck me as a little interesting. 165 00:25:51.920 --> 00:26:09.099 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, Robin Opsel covered it for Iowa Capital Dispatch, and as I was reading the story, I responded back, you know, we Slack back and forth as we’re editing, etc, and one of my questions was, you know, was this a, you know. 166 00:26:09.100 --> 00:26:15.409 Kathie Obradovich: Was this a fundraiser, or was this open to the public? I mean, was this an invitation-only event? 167 00:26:15.410 --> 00:26:18.809 Kathie Obradovich: And Robin responded that it felt like a fundraiser. 168 00:26:18.810 --> 00:26:20.240 Dave Price: And it very well could have been. 169 00:26:20.240 --> 00:26:20.850 Kathie Obradovich: I just didn’t. 170 00:26:20.850 --> 00:26:21.850 Dave Price: And that’s on me. 171 00:26:21.850 --> 00:26:33.080 Kathie Obradovich: But it… but not… that’s not really the kind of thing you do with your closing argument, that you bring in, you know, the who’s who of Republican politics. 172 00:26:33.160 --> 00:26:57.920 Kathie Obradovich: Only. I mean, it seems like you want to show support, not just from the establishment core of the party, but you want to show that you’ve got, you know, public that are excited about you, and… and yeah, I… this event was not that, definitely not. So, so… and for you to say that he gave a 173 00:26:57.920 --> 00:27:06.439 Kathie Obradovich: standard stump speech that, you know, everybody, first of all, everybody has heard before, but all these people who already know Randy Feenstra already know. 174 00:27:06.440 --> 00:27:31.390 Kathie Obradovich: You know, he’s not giving you a strategy on how he’s gonna win, he’s telling you that he met his wife in a pizza ranch. So I… I do think it’s a… it was an odd type of event. And when you think about how few events did they actually even notify the media about, let alone invite reporters to come, I mean, this is the one that they wanted to be out there from Central Iowa, and this is, you know, this is what they’re doing, so… 175 00:27:31.730 --> 00:27:37.569 Dave Price: And it was Terry Brainstead’s return, first time he’s been out there, so that was, I’m sure, a big deal for the campaign. 176 00:27:37.570 --> 00:27:38.390 Laura Belin: Well… 177 00:27:38.400 --> 00:27:45.949 Laura Belin: I’m at a disadvantage because Randy Feenstra’s campaign doesn’t have me on their press list, so I did not know about this event or attend this event, but… 178 00:27:45.950 --> 00:27:58.629 Laura Belin: I think it’s absolutely deranged to do an insider’s house party in the final week of a very competitive primary. As you said, Dave, this is something that maybe you do 6 months ago, but 179 00:27:58.630 --> 00:28:15.300 Laura Belin: But in general, Randy Feenstra’s campaign has never tried to build a crowd for anything. He’s been doing these small pizza ranch gatherings for 20 or 25 or fewer people, and meanwhile, Zach Lane is doing these big 180 00:28:15.300 --> 00:28:26.060 Laura Belin: packed town hall meetings where he’s able to get 100 or 150 people there, and I just don’t… I think that Randy Feenstra and his handlers 181 00:28:26.060 --> 00:28:44.739 Laura Belin: they never really gave him an opportunity to learn how to get better at this. This is why Rob San does 100 town halls a year, and you get a lot better at developing a feel for the crowd and getting a sense of what people want to hear from you, and he just doesn’t seem to have that capacity. 182 00:28:46.500 --> 00:29:00.430 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I… it is odd, and, you know, I think, you know, that Randy Feenstra’s supporters have raised concerns about the approach to the campaign. 183 00:29:00.570 --> 00:29:25.419 Kathie Obradovich: You know, at different times as well. And, so yeah, and it’s not that he’s not getting around the state, because I think he has, it’s just, as you just said, Laura, these are small events, and for the most part, they’re not inviting the media, so they’re, you know, they’re sort of happening in a vacuum while everything that the other candidates are doing, they’re making sure that they’re, inviting the media, get, you know, trying to get some of that sort of earned 184 00:29:26.090 --> 00:29:34.280 Kathie Obradovich: Media to help, you know, expand or amplify what they’re trying to do with their advertising. 185 00:29:35.000 --> 00:29:51.569 Dave Price: Okay, we’ve spent a lot of time on this competitive race because we have so many developments on this. Let’s close out with the Senate Democrats, though. This is simpler since we have two people here, right? Zach Walls and Josh Turek. So much outside spending. 186 00:29:51.890 --> 00:30:05.229 Dave Price: that probably gives Zach Wall’s nightmares about this 10 million plus, or whatever it is, outside money benefiting Josh Turek, which… that is a lot to overcome. 187 00:30:05.340 --> 00:30:12.050 Dave Price: There’s no way that Zach Walls is going to be able to compete financially with an ad blitz. 188 00:30:12.720 --> 00:30:26.780 Dave Price: Perhaps he was a little better well-known, maybe, when this race started, but that really gets Josh Turek’s biographical story out to the masses pretty quickly and in a big-time way, Laura. 189 00:30:27.390 --> 00:30:51.070 Laura Belin: Yeah, I went back and looked. This is more than Fred Hubbell spent going into the 2018 Democratic primary. I think he spent $6 or $7 million, which is a lot for a Democratic primary. And I think it’s clear, earlier this year, there were a couple of polls that seemed to show Zach Walls ahead of Josh Sturek, I think, because Walls had higher name ID. And so, when you have… 190 00:30:51.070 --> 00:30:54.230 Laura Belin: one outside group, VoteVets, spending 191 00:30:54.230 --> 00:31:12.090 Laura Belin: far more, several times more than both Walls and Turek combined, it is hard to compete, and we have not seen any last-minute attack ads on TV, so I think that that suggests that Turek’s people feel pretty comfortable with where they are going into the primary. 192 00:31:12.910 --> 00:31:17.979 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, we’ve got, you know, I tried to bring up VoteBets earlier, mistakenly, but… but that’s a $10 million. 193 00:31:17.980 --> 00:31:19.489 Dave Price: Too many Zachs in this race. 194 00:31:19.490 --> 00:31:20.130 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah. 195 00:31:20.130 --> 00:31:20.720 Dave Price: Problem. 196 00:31:20.720 --> 00:31:32.920 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, well, I was drinking coffee, but apparently not enough. Yeah, so Boat Vets, though, has spent $10 million in this race, to benefit Turek. 197 00:31:32.920 --> 00:31:50.629 Kathie Obradovich: And so that is… and that’s just since mid-March. So, you know, you think, you know, you look at the, you know, probably several million more have been spent since then. And, you know, much… yes, Zach Wells has some outside spending as well. 198 00:31:50.630 --> 00:32:03.089 Kathie Obradovich: But nothing approaching that $10 million figure. So, I mean, you know, I do, think that Zach Wells has been trying to insulate himself a little bit, by, you know. 199 00:32:03.210 --> 00:32:21.309 Kathie Obradovich: giving, Turek a hard time about, his, you know, quote, dark money and support from the national, Senate, Democratic leadership, etc. But, you know, ultimately, 200 00:32:21.360 --> 00:32:36.750 Kathie Obradovich: you know, I think Turek’s, one of his biggest disadvantages was his, lack of name ID compared to, Zach Walls, and all of this spending really sort of erased… erased that issue, so… 201 00:32:37.120 --> 00:32:40.449 Dave Price: Laura, you may be the best, 202 00:32:41.770 --> 00:33:00.740 Dave Price: best one in touch with a lot of these, primary groups, democratic groups and primary activists and that, not to discount any of Kathie sources. But I know you go and speak to some of these groups sometime. And I had wondered, going into this race, 203 00:33:01.060 --> 00:33:11.820 Dave Price: When you look at policy between these two, sort of same thing we said from the Republican gubernatorial field, no doubt you’re gonna find some nuanced differences, how they talk about stuff. 204 00:33:12.030 --> 00:33:28.780 Dave Price: How they stress certain things, whatever. But what was going to be more important to the primary electorate, where Democrats have had their teeth kicked in for so many straight elections in this state, right? And so you have… 205 00:33:29.110 --> 00:33:35.560 Dave Price: One guy who represents A purple at best, if not slightly red… 206 00:33:35.990 --> 00:33:42.330 Dave Price: District, but one, versus a guy whose present district is very blue. 207 00:33:42.350 --> 00:33:57.200 Dave Price: And I was always wondering through this whole process, and I guess we find out Tuesday, I wish we had some good exit polls on this, but that if there’s, like, a tiebreaker for people who are the ones who are going to show up in that primary, are they looking at electability 208 00:33:57.250 --> 00:34:06.290 Dave Price: And if they’re like, alright, Turek represents an area where it’s tougher to win, you know, is that a tiebreaker for them? You know, like, how many people are thinking like that? 209 00:34:06.360 --> 00:34:22.480 Laura Belin: I think, anecdotally, a ton of Democrats are thinking about electability. I’ve heard that from so many people, but they really like both these guys. They’re just trying to figure out who has the best chance to win. I mean, there’s intense frustration, though, from the people who support Zach Walls. 210 00:34:22.480 --> 00:34:42.259 Laura Belin: about this mountain of outside money, and the way it seems to be tied to Washington, D.C, even though it’s not directly from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. People remember how Washington, D.C. Democrats got involved in the 2016 primary for Patty Judge, and then in the 2020 primary. 211 00:34:42.260 --> 00:34:53.030 Laura Belin: for Teresa Greenfield, and neither of those candidates were successful, so I think there’s a lot of frustration. But electability, I do think that’s been one of the biggest things driving people 212 00:34:53.030 --> 00:35:12.499 Laura Belin: to Turek, because there aren’t a lot of differences on the issue. There are a few things where their votes are different, but ideologically, these candidates are much more similar than what we’ve seen in some Democratic primaries, where there’s more of, let’s say, an establishment candidate, and then more of a Bernie Sanders-type candidate. 213 00:35:13.760 --> 00:35:20.109 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, it… the outside money cuts both ways, I mean, and this is something that we… I think we’ve talked about here with the… 214 00:35:20.110 --> 00:35:43.719 Kathie Obradovich: you know, sort of argument by Zach Walls against Turk of being, you know, the… being Chuck Schumer’s boy, you know? That outside money, comes in handy in the general election, where the, you know, we know that Ashley Hinson, what has she got, like, $7 million in the bank or something like that? I mean, we know she’s well-funded, we know that she will have access to whatever resources 215 00:35:43.720 --> 00:35:59.020 Kathie Obradovich: that she needs or wants. And so, you know, yes, does it make people queasy that, you know, our, you know, primary is being fueled here by, you know, millions and millions of dollars of outside money? 216 00:35:59.020 --> 00:36:05.920 Kathie Obradovich: Probably. But on the other hand, you can’t, fight fire with, you know. 217 00:36:05.920 --> 00:36:21.739 Kathie Obradovich: crumbs. So, you, you do have, there is that competitive issue, and, and, and I, I think that it’s… it is a different era than, you know, when we were talking about, 218 00:36:21.800 --> 00:36:27.779 Kathie Obradovich: you know, Patty Judge’s campaign, for example. So, it’ll be… it’ll be interesting to see what happens. I mean, the… 219 00:36:27.780 --> 00:36:50.990 Kathie Obradovich: that outside money, yeah, it does make people sick, I think, and, you know, it undermines credibility when candidates are talking about, you know, well, we’re gonna, you know, we’re gonna fight the special interests, you know, when the special interests are the ones who sent you, right? But yeah, and on the other hand, you’ve got to have money to be competitive in the general election. 220 00:36:51.360 --> 00:37:16.149 Dave Price: And we… it’s not like Zach Walz hasn’t raised any money, so we don’t want to make it sound like, while he doesn’t benefit from this outside money, he had… they both have raised about the same amount of money as a… as a campaign, right? All throughout. Walz has kind of made this theme that I’m also curious, you know, without the policy differences or substantial differences between 221 00:37:16.150 --> 00:37:19.609 Dave Price: the two of them. He has largely run this 222 00:37:19.610 --> 00:37:30.180 Dave Price: Turek’s this insider guy. I’m out there to take on the system. He had Elizabeth Warren here to campaign with them, and I’m wondering how strong 223 00:37:30.180 --> 00:37:47.660 Dave Price: for those who are sort of disgusted by the outside money, how strong is that faction? And is that enough for him to turn out enough primary voters to overcome this massive ad blitz that Turek is able to, to benefit from? 224 00:37:48.710 --> 00:37:59.610 Kathie Obradovich: I mean, Zach Walsh has a lot of experience, I think, in, in turning out voters. You know, I do think that he, 225 00:37:59.610 --> 00:38:10.010 Kathie Obradovich: he’s, you know, a younger candidate. He can talk about, you know, sort of the next generation of leadership, although not that he’s that much younger than Josh Turk. 226 00:38:10.010 --> 00:38:29.250 Kathie Obradovich: But I, you know, I have to, you know, if… I would, you know, give the edge to walls when it turns… when it comes to get out the vote, except for, as I said before, that, you know, vote vets, etc. I think it’s gonna… they’re gonna be helpful in terms of Josh Turek’s efforts. 227 00:38:29.760 --> 00:38:44.520 Laura Belin: I struggle to see Zach Walz as an outsider candidate. I view this primary as more of different groups of insiders having different preferences. I mean, Zach Walz has dozens of endorsements from prominent people in politics, from 228 00:38:44.520 --> 00:38:52.639 Laura Belin: Fred Hubbell to Patty Judge to Dave Loebsack. When he was first running for the State Senate, he had a lot of support from 229 00:38:52.640 --> 00:39:10.819 Laura Belin: parts of the Democratic establishment, so I guess I don’t see that as one of the more credible arguments. But clearly, of the Washington, D.C. insiders in this election, clearly more of them prefer Josh Turek. That’s accurate, but I don’t… on the flip side, I just… 230 00:39:10.820 --> 00:39:14.580 Laura Belin: don’t see Zach Walls as an outsider to Iowa politics. 231 00:39:14.720 --> 00:39:30.780 Dave Price: We’re talking about insiders. I, so let’s, as we close out this week, I’m gonna share a little bit of, inside, maybe the inside scoop on this, on this podcast. I think as we were putting this together, part of our plan was maybe we… 232 00:39:31.000 --> 00:39:39.720 Dave Price: We talk each week and get through the primary campaign. This is gonna sound like… I can’t remember how my son praises this. 233 00:39:40.000 --> 00:39:44.420 Dave Price: When you brag about yourself, what’s that called? The kids call this something. 234 00:39:44.420 --> 00:39:45.500 Laura Belin: Humble brag. 235 00:39:45.500 --> 00:39:46.649 Dave Price: Yeah, humble brag? 236 00:39:46.650 --> 00:39:47.230 Laura Belin: It’s… 237 00:39:47.230 --> 00:39:54.950 Dave Price: Maybe that’s what they… yeah, you’re probably… see, you’re more connected. Humble brag is… that’s probably it. 238 00:39:55.310 --> 00:40:08.280 Dave Price: But this has been super fun, and we’ve seen how this podcast has grown, so we… I think our preference would be… this could be an incredibly fun… 239 00:40:09.570 --> 00:40:19.659 Dave Price: It’s alright, we’re all nerds, we can say fun, right? Like, this stuff is fun. But super interesting, we have so many dynamics to follow for the rest of the year, because this is an election year. Plus. 240 00:40:19.720 --> 00:40:33.800 Dave Price: I just think Iowa politics is fascinating anyway. There’s always so much stuff to talk about. So, I suppose, we’re gonna turn this into a fundraising ask here, I guess, and I hope this is appropriate, but for all of you 241 00:40:34.390 --> 00:40:44.199 Dave Price: who have been watching, reading, or listening to this. Obviously, first of all, thank you very much. This has been such a super fun and humbling process. 242 00:40:44.470 --> 00:40:58.769 Dave Price: To kind of build this out. So it’s fun to be able to have this platform, so we’re super appreciative for that. For those of you who’ve become financial supporters, an additional thank you to all of that, because that allows us to do this. 243 00:40:58.930 --> 00:41:13.830 Dave Price: So, our ask now would be to help us keep this thing going. We very much appreciate all the support in the past. Each one of you, when you make a contribution, no matter what, in what form it is, monthly. 244 00:41:13.960 --> 00:41:27.339 Dave Price: one… one donation, whatever it is. We very much appreciate that. But to keep this going, we have to keep doing this. So if you would please, click on the link that’ll accompany this so that… 245 00:41:27.340 --> 00:41:44.010 Dave Price: we can continue the fundraising efforts to keep this going, because we definitely want to… we may take a brief break, maybe late summer or something like that, as we all enjoy some time off, hopefully. We’ve got a huge trip that I’m really fired up about that my son has put together, too, but… 246 00:41:44.170 --> 00:41:57.439 Dave Price: That’s a whole other… that’s a whole other podcast. But we really want to keep, keep this thing going in the future, and, we’ve got some ideas about ways to do some interactive conversations with you, too. So… 247 00:41:57.440 --> 00:42:04.460 Dave Price: If you would, please, if you would consider becoming a paid subscriber of this, this very much helps us to… 248 00:42:04.530 --> 00:42:07.269 Dave Price: to keep this conversation going. I look forward… 249 00:42:07.270 --> 00:42:08.940 Laura Belin: Making a one-time donation. 250 00:42:08.940 --> 00:42:10.630 Dave Price: For sure. Yeah, thank you. 251 00:42:10.770 --> 00:42:18.729 Dave Price: I very much look forward to next week’s podcast, because we will have so much to talk about. We will… 252 00:42:18.780 --> 00:42:40.090 Dave Price: Obviously, we know in most of these races, we will have winners by that point. We’ll see if we have a declared winner in the Republican primary race for governor. Who would have thought we’d be talking about that? We will see if this poll that we talked about, if it picked up on anything, or if Feenstra, or somebody else, perhaps, clinches this sucker on primary night, so… 253 00:42:40.090 --> 00:42:46.380 Dave Price: Thank you very much to both of you. I know we went a long time today, but we had so much to talk about, so… all good, right? 254 00:42:46.380 --> 00:42:47.050 Laura Belin: That’s fun. 255 00:42:47.050 --> 00:42:55.529 Dave Price: Have a good weekend, both of you. Look forward to talking to you next week, and thanks to all of you for joining us this week. We will talk to you next week. Get full access to Iowa Down Ballot at iowawriterscollaborative.substack.com/subscribe [https://iowawriterscollaborative.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]
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