Tax-Smart Investing, Why Bonds Are Back, and the Sentiment Paradox

Tax-Smart Investing, Why Bonds Are Back, and the Sentiment Paradox

Andy is recording from a hotel room in Seattle, attending the Basis Northwest Conference, a two-day deep dive into esoteric tax strategies run by Brent Sullivan of Tax Alpha Insider. The episode opens with a walkthrough of what tax-centric wealth management looks like in practice, including asset location, direct indexing, tax-loss harvesting, and the 351 ETF conversion on the investment side, and Roth conversions, charitable giving strategy, and lifetime tax efficiency on the planning side. The second topic is bonds. Interest rates spiked last week, and Adam walks through a chart plotting ten-year Treasury starting yields against forward returns since the early nineties. With last year's starting yield at 4.6%, forward-looking bond returns are projecting just under 6% annualized. Andy's read is that 4.6% sits right in the middle of the historical range. This is a normalization, not a warning sign. Consumer sentiment is near its lowest level on record, driven in part by the U.S.-Iran war and fuel price concerns, while the stock market sits near all-time highs and earnings keep growing. Adam and Andy discuss the K-shaped economy, the politics angle, and why sentiment this low has historically preceded strong forward returns. Andy closes with Ben Carlson's thought experiment - even an investor who bought only at all-time highs throughout history still averaged around 8% annually over the long run. ⏱️ Timestamps:  * (00:49) Intro: Andy live from Seattle at the Basis Northwest Conference * (01:35) Asset location and matching investments to account types * (04:57) Direct indexing and tax-loss harvesting at scale * (06:44) Adam on the planning side: lifetime tax efficiency vs. the single-year bill * (10:36) Why CPAs push back on Roth conversions and why that's shortsighted * (11:10) The ten-year distribution rule and multi-generational tax planning * (13:05) Bond market update and why rates spiked last week * (14:02) The ten-year yield chart: starting yield vs. forward return * (17:42) Stocks vs. bonds: why equities still win over the long run * (19:20) University of Michigan sentiment survey: 44.8, an all-time low * (22:06) The K-shaped economy and whether politics explains the gap * (26:28) Ben Carlson's all-time highs thought experiment * (27:46) Wrap and listener questions * (27:28) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast [http://www.burneywealth.com/podcast] Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement [http://www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement]  Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/]  Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/]  Tax Alpha Insider Substack by Brent Sullivan | https://www.taxalphainsider.com/ [https://www.taxalphainsider.com/]  Ben Carlson / A Wealth of Common Sense | https://awealthofcommonsense.com/ [https://awealthofcommonsense.com/] CNBC “Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation worries” | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/consumer-sentiment-hits-fresh-record-low-in-may-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation-worries.html [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/consumer-sentiment-hits-fresh-record-low-in-may-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation-worries.html]   University of Michigan Survey of Consumers | https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ [https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/] #TaxPlanning #WealthManagement #RothConversion #BondMarket #ConsumerSentiment #Investing #PersonalFinance #LongTermInvesting The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

The State of the American Consumer, Long-Term Care Costs & the Value Factor

Despite months of pessimistic headlines, a thread from Ryan Detrick at the Carson Group shows American consumers in solid shape. Credit card delinquencies are back to pre-COVID levels, foreclosures and bankruptcies are flat, and home equity has climbed alongside equity markets. Andy adds the Costco recession indicator to the mix, which flags a shift from steaks to canned tuna as a warning sign. Adam's take is that maybe people just want tuna salad in the summer. From there, the episode turns to long-term care costs, one of the most underplanned-for expenses in retirement. A Business Insider article about a family navigating memory care for an aging parent put a number to it - $17,000 a month, with over $200,000 spent in 18 months. Adam walks through state-by-state cost ranges using the Genworth cost of care calculator, the case for and against long-term care insurance, and why starting the conversation early is the most important move regardless of what you decide. The episode closes with the second installment of Burney's factor deep dive series. Andy covers the value factor, tracing the Fama-French research showing cheaply priced stocks have historically outperformed expensive ones by 3 to 5% annually, why price-to-book value has lost its usefulness, and why value investors have to be prepared to sit through extended stretches where growth dominates. ⏱️ Timestamps: (00:45) Intro from Hilton Head and Memorial Day weekend (02:06) Ryan Detrick's consumer data: credit cards, delinquencies, and household balance sheets (04:46) The Costco recession indicator (06:32) Cost of long-term care: a Business Insider story about memory care at $17K a month (08:10) What Burney walks clients through when planning for care costs (09:25) The Genworth cost of care calculator and state-by-state ranges (12:48) Long-term care insurance: the decision window, the history, and who actually needs it (19:13) Why most clients end up choosing to self-insure (20:00) Factor deep dive: the value factor and the Fama-French research (21:47) Why price-to-book no longer works and what's replaced it (23:04) Price-to-earnings as the most practical value measure (24:26) Why value has underperformed growth for a decade, and why that doesn't kill the thesis (26:48) How Burney's models track which value metrics are working now (27:41) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Business Insider Article, “My dad's dementia care cost $17,000 a month. It wiped out his life savings in 16 months” | https://www.businessinsider.com/dads-dementia-care-cost-life-savings-2026-5 Genworth Cost of Care Calculator | https://www.carescout.com/cost-of-care Costco Recession Indicator | https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/costco-recession-signal-goes-viral-114424970.html #LongTermCare #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #ValueInvesting #StockMarket #WealthManagement #FactorInvesting #ConsumerHealth The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Ten Trillion-Dollar Companies, Social Security COLAs, and the Great Wealth Transfer

Adam opens with a pop quiz on how many trillion-dollar market cap companies exist in the US right now. The answer is ten, led by NVIDIA at $4.8 trillion.  He traces prior melt-up periods from the Roaring Twenties through the Nifty Fifty, the Japanese market in the '80s, and the Nasdaq bubble of the '90s to put the Nasdaq 100's 643% climb over the past decade in context. Andy adds the labor market data. Payrolls grew above expectations in the most recent report, and despite fears that AI-driven tech layoffs would hollow out white-collar employment, companies are still hiring. Adam then turns to Social Security, where stickier inflation has a silver lining. With CPI at 3.8% and running sticky, early projections put the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) at 4-5%. He walks through the COLA history and explains why delaying your claim matters so much when those adjustments stack on top of 8% annual delay credits. The episode closes on the great wealth transfer, a topic Adam says he's been hearing about for twenty years. Baby boomers hold $90 trillion in wealth, but Andy and Adam both question whether the anticipated handoff to millennials and Gen Z will play out as expected. Boomers are spending more aggressively than prior generations, living longer into their go-go years, and, in many cases, intentionally holding off on passing down wealth. ⏱️ Timestamps * (00:44) Pop quiz: how many trillion-dollar companies are there? * (01:15) NVIDIA at $4.8 trillion and the full list * (02:19) Melt-ups throughout history: the '20s, Nifty Fifty, Japan, the Nasdaq * (05:11) What's supporting the run: the latest jobs report * (06:27) AI layoff fears and why the data tells a different story * (07:52) Social Security COLAs and what stickier inflation means for 2027 * (08:17) COLA history: near-zero for a decade, then 6%, then almost 9% * (09:40) Why delaying your Social Security claim compounds the benefit * (12:12) The great wealth transfer: $90 trillion in boomer wealth * (13:59) Why boomers are spending it rather than passing it on * (14:23) Longevity, health span, and the go-go years stretching longer * (18:18) Planning for a life that might run to 100 or beyond * (20:07) Upcoming guests: estate planning, P&C insurance, trust administration * (21:14) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast [http://www.burneywealth.com/podcast] Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement [http://www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement]  Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/]  Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/]  Wall Street Journal: The Great $110 Trillion Wealth Transfer Won’t Happen Any Time Soon | https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-110-trillion-wealth-transfer-wont-happen-any-time-soon-e8b2ef31 [https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-110-trillion-wealth-transfer-wont-happen-any-time-soon-e8b2ef31]] #SocialSecurity #WealthTransfer #StockMarket #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #WealthManagement #LongTermInvesting #Longevity The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Health Insurance Costs & Momentum in Stock Selection

Health insurance has long been treated as non-negotiable, but Adam and Andy are getting more questions than ever from clients wondering whether it's worth the cost. A Bloomberg article on healthy workers dropping employer coverage to save over $1,000 a month captured something they've both been noticing in client conversations for years, and the two walk through why opting out, whether through self-pay, religious health pools, or exchange plans, tends to look better on paper than it plays out in practice. Their advice stays consistent regardless of income level. You're in a "don't screw it up" phase, and a catastrophic health event paid fully out of pocket can undo years of careful planning. That framing carries into the economic conversation. Andy has been getting questions about Iran, oil prices, and whether the stock market can really be at all-time highs while all of this is happening. The hard data keeps coming back strong. The US economy grew 2% in early 2026, the Atlanta Fed has since updated its Q2 real growth forecast to 3.5%, and jobless claims are declining while retail spending is climbing. Consumer sentiment has been negative for months, but Andy makes the point that it tends to be a contrarian indicator. When sentiment is low and the hard numbers are healthy, that tends to be when staying invested pays off. The episode closes with the first installment of a recurring segment on Burney's active management process. Andy introduces momentum, explaining how the same instincts behind "let your winners run" and "never catch a falling knife" show up in the academic data, and why the momentum factor has provided very strong returns on a market-neutral basis over the past year. ⏱️ Timestamps:  * (00:00) The Bloomberg health insurance article and why people are questioning employer coverage * (01:15) Alternatives people are considering and why they tend to fall short * (03:57) The "don't screw it up" phase applied to insurance decisions * (07:21) Is the economy in its own "don't screw it up" moment? * (08:18) US GDP, the Atlanta Fed's Q2 forecast, and the labor market * (10:39) Consumer sentiment as a contrarian indicator * (13:24) Burney's stock selection process and the factor deep dive series * (15:09) Momentum explained: bull signals, bear signals, and why it works * (21:15) 5,000 factors, 25 to 50 per model, and why momentum is leading right now * (23:36) Behavioral investing and knowing when to cut your losses * (25:44) Wrap and listener questions * (26:36) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast [http://www.burneywealth.com/podcast] Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement [http://www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement]  Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/]  Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/]  Bloomberg Article: Healthy Workers Ditching Company Insurance to Save $1,000 a Month | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-04-29/as-health-insurance-costs-rise-workers-leave-employer-plans [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-04-29/as-health-insurance-costs-rise-workers-leave-employer-plans]  Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 2026 forecast | https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Project/Atlanta/FRBA/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf [https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Project/Atlanta/FRBA/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf]  #HealthInsurance #PersonalFinance #StockMarket #ActiveManagement #InvestingStrategy #WealthManagement #LongTermInvesting #FactorInvesting The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Lifestyle Creep, Earnings Season, and Staying Invested

A Goldman Sachs research report from October 2025 found that 40% of households earning over $500,000 a year report living paycheck to paycheck. Adam and Andy dig into that number, what it tells us about how people relate to money as their income climbs, and why the gap between being rich and being wealthy matters more than most people realize. The conversation moves into earnings season, where 139 S&P 500 companies have already reported double-digit earnings growth and nearly double-digit revenue growth, despite all the headlines about tariffs, geopolitical risk, and economic uncertainty. Andy explains why staying invested tends to beat reacting to the noise, and shares a stat from Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense: the S&P 500 has returned 17% annually for the past 17 years. The episode closes with the same throughline that runs under both conversations. Whether you're building wealth or learning to spend it, patience and discipline tend to get you further than any single financial move. ⏱️ Timestamps: (00:42) Intro and Andy's weekend at Dominion Raceway (02:36) Goldman Sachs data on paycheck-to-paycheck living across income levels (05:12) Lifestyle creep and why income growth doesn't guarantee wealth (12:11) The distinction between being rich and being wealthy (14:24) Morgan Housel's definition of wealth and the savings creep strategy (17:09) Earnings season update and double-digit growth despite the headlines (19:56) Why fear sells and how to filter market noise (20:28) The S&P's 17% annualized return over 17 years (23:13) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Goldman Sachs Asset Management Retirement Survey and Insights Report, October 2025 | https://am.gs.com/en-us/advisors/news/press-release/2025/retirement-survey-press-release Paycheck to paycheck graph | https://x.com/fintechfrank/status/2048544546053648608/photo/1 A Wealth of Common Sense, Ben Carlson | https://awealthofcommonsense.com/ The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel | https://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Money-Morgan-Housel/dp/B09Q68BXWL #LifestyleCreep #WealthBuilding #PersonalFinance #StockMarket #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement #LongTermInvesting The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.