Longview Conversations x Marc Sumerlin: What's Next for the US economy, Rates & the New Fed?

Longview Conversations x Marc Sumerlin: What's Next for the US economy, Rates & the New Fed?

In this sixteenth instalment of our 'Longview Conversations With' podcast, CEO Chris Watling sits down with macroeconomic expert Marc Sumerlin to explore what the next phase for the Federal Reserve could look like, what Kevin Warsh's potential influence may mean for monetary policy, where interest rates are ultimately headed, and how the broader political and geopolitical backdrop is shaping markets and investor expectations. Marc is the founder of Evenflow Macro, established in 2013, following a distinguished career spanning both public policy and private sector economic analysis. Prior to founding Evenflow, Marc spent a decade as Managing Director at the Lindsey Group, a global economic consulting firm, where he advised institutional investors and travelled extensively across Asia and Europe analysing global macroeconomic developments. From 2001 to 2002, he served in the White House as Deputy Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, helping develop and implement the economic agenda of President George W. Bush. Earlier in his career, Marc worked as an economic policy adviser during the Bush presidential campaign and began his career at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee. Most recently Marc was in consideration for the position of Fed chair. In discussion with Marc, we dive into the implications of a potentially shifting Federal Reserve leadership structure, the evolving role of Jerome Powell, and what Kevin Warsh could mean for the direction of US monetary policy, and how the deficit is faring. We also explore the outlook for inflation, growth and rates against an increasingly uncertain global backdrop, alongside broader macro themes shaping markets today — from fiscal policy and political risk to geopolitical tensions and the changing nature of the post-pandemic economic cycle. DISCLAIMER: This Publication is protected by U.K. and International Copyright laws. All rights are reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user's personal use. Each reproduction of any part of this publication or its contents must contain notice of Longview Economics' copyright. This agreement shall be governed and construed in accordance with U.K. Copyright law and the parties hereto irrevocably submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English courts in respect of any dispute or matter arising out of or connected with this Agreement. Longview Economics Limited will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this podcast. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be offered worldwide on an unrestricted basis and/or may not be eligible for all investors. All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness. All information and opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this podcast, and are subject to change without notice. Some investments may not be readily realisable since the market in securities is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be difficult to quantify. Futures and options trading is considered risky. Past performance of an investment is no guarantee of its future performance. Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in values and on realisation you may receive back less than you invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the price, value or income of an investment. We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of our individual clients and we would recommend that you take financial and/or tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the products mentioned herein. Longview Economics Ltd. is an appointed representative of Messels Limited. Messels Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Capital at Risk | For Sophisticated Investors Only

Longview Conversations x David Murrin: Is the West Sleepwalking Into WWIII?

In this fifteenth instalment of our 'Longview Conversations With' podcast, CEO Chris Watling sits down with David Murrin — geopolitical strategist, financial market forecaster, and founder of Global Forecaster — for one of the most wide-ranging and provocative conversations in the series to date covering the patterns of war and what we can infer from current geopolitical tensions. David is a genuine polymath. His career began as a geophysicist working in Papua New Guinea, where his early observations of collective human behaviour first sparked a lifelong obsession with decoding the patterns that drive civilisations, markets, and conflict. He went on to join JP Morgan, before co-founding Emergent Asset Management in 1997. Out of that experience grew Global Forecaster — a research and advisory firm whose clients include governments, armed forces, major financial institutions, and asset managers. His landmark book, Breaking the Code of History (2009), introduced his Five Stages of Empire model and the '108–112' Year Hegemonic War Cycle Theory — integrated frameworks combining macroeconomic, military, and behavioural insights that have underpinned a track record of non-consensus calls going back to 2001. With David, we explore the deep architecture of his hegemonic war cycle theory — and where, by his reckoning, the world currently sits within it. We discuss his quantum-inspired and fractal thinking on the patterns of markets during periods of war and civilisational stress: How price action and collective human behaviour encode the very same dynamics that drive imperial expansion and decline. We turn to Iran, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and why — contrary to much of the current commentary — this conflict may not resolve as fast as some markets reflect and will likely, in David's view, see oil not only move but remain at higher levels. We also examine the West's chronic failure to respond with the strategic and military sharpness that this moment demands — the hollowing out of defence capabilities that leaves it dangerously exposed at precisely the wrong point in the cycle. And finally, we look, with unflinching clarity, at what China is actually doing: How Beijing is systematically building the military, economic, and geopolitical infrastructure of a successor hegemonic power — and how, while the West remains distracted by the fires of the Middle East and Eastern Europe, China may be quietly seizing the strategic window it has long been preparing for. It is a rare conversation - one that fuses the long arc of history with the immediacy of today's markets. We hope you enjoy it.

Longview Conversations x Mads Jensen: Is AI a Bubble? Is There Any Hope for Europe?

In this fourteenth instalment of our 'Longview Conversations With' podcast, CEO Chris Watling deep dives into AI themes, but instead of following the traditional Silicon Valley route (for this type of conversation), on this show we get a different perspective, that of a European venture capital specialist - Mads Jensen. Mads is a tech and VC expert, having spent the last 25 years in the industry. He started at IBM in 2001, before leaving to begin his own SaaS company, Sefaira, the first real time simulation for energy efficiency in building design. Over the 6 years scaling before selling, he observed a glaring difference in the venture capital ecosystems between Europe and the US - with Europe late to the game, slowed down by regulation, and therefore far behind. His next move began with investing in other companies with the purpose of bringing the entrepreneurial DNA of the US into the EU space. That led to the creation, with his business partner Dan Bowyer, of their VC fund, SuperSeed. SuperSeed currently backs 35 companies (with two funds and a third opening soon) in seed and pre-seed stages in providing investment, expertise and networks to help develop a repeatable, scalable and profitable business model and accelerate the journey to Series A and beyond. In discussion with Mads, we dive into how AI is actually and practically being applied in various industries around the world, delivering real and meaningful productivity gains. We also discuss the US vs. European Venture Capital model and pre IPO financing ecosystem, and consider the question: Is there any hope for Europe? Is it destined to be an expert in regulation and rules and not much else (as some would suggest)? Or is the European VC industry starting to come of age? And finally, is AI, more broadly, a bubble and if so, what does that mean for investing? We hope you enjoy the conversation.