The Need for Beef

The Need for Beef

BEEF We’ll start again with the New World screwworm. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Texas and 1 in New Mexico. Affected animals are a dog, a goat and 5 cattle. While our border with Mexico has been closed for months now to live animals, Texas cattle is now barred from export to Canada and I’d expect that list to continue to grow. This is a growing issue that will affect our beef industry for the foreseeable future.  Beef production was 533K head last week, up from the holiday shortened prior week of 448K. This keeps inventories tight and product prices pushing higher. Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips are finding support to continue moving higher. Chucks and rounds are holding steady for now though they are not big demand items in the summer. Ground beef is the big demand item and it's moving higher every day. Briskets and sirloin flap are moving lower, but I don’t think we’ll see this for long. It’s a market where I’d make sure I stay ahead of my needs and keep inventory on hand. This market is moving higher.   POULTRY The declining chicken market is done. Pricing will be moving higher next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings. Compared to other proteins, still a great value but the declines of the last month are done. Chicken production continues strong up about 2% over last year. There is plenty of chicken in production. On the avian flu report, only three new cases affecting 20K birds. The summer is looking good for avian flu.  GRAINS Corn continues to be a great value closing at $4.25/bushel today, that’s down from $4.39 last week. Soy has pulled back a bit from the highs we saw last week, but I would not be surprised if they go on another run. High fuel prices put soy in play with biofuels, that is not over. Wheat is moving lower; I do think we’ll see lower flour costs soon.  PORK Pork bellies holding steady for the week, closing today at $120, about the same as last week. This will be moving higher soon, but it is a great price right now. Butts were on a tear higher, but they seem to have leveled off, we may see some better pricing shortly. Ribs are about as high as expected to see them this year. Loins continue to be the value in pork.   DAIRY CME Limited moves on the CME this week, thru Thursday’s close, butter is down 2, block is up 1, and barrel is up 2. Let's look for a quiet market at least the next couple weeks.  Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Pressure on the Herd

BEEF Let's start with the bad news. We’ve been expecting this to happen for several months, yesterday the USDA announced the discovery of the New World Screw Worm infecting a calf in La Pryor, Texas, about 50 miles north of the border. This will keep the border closed to live animals for the foreseeable future, keeping pressure on the already small domestic beef herd. The New World Screw worm is a flesh-eating parasite that has been eradicated from the US since the 1970s, but it's back! Control measures include releasing sterile male flies to reduce population growth. This is certainly worth keeping informed about. Now, with that bit of cheery news, let's look at current beef markets. Last week was a holiday week so harvest was only 448K head. Demand remains good, not great. I’m expecting to see market moves higher as we head to Independence Day. Grinds continue to increase every day. Middle meats were struggling to move higher the last couple weeks, but they are back on track with steady moves higher, again I think right into Independence Day. Thin meats, brisket, flanks, sirloin flap, are mostly steady to lower. This continues to be a market with tight supply, make sure to stay ahead of your needs.  POULTRY The decline in boneless skinless breast meat continues next week. The heavy production we’ve seen so far this year is finally catching up a bit on the suppliers. They are discounting breast meat to keep it moving. Tenders are holding steady another week while wings finally bottomed out last week and are moving up, just a bit, but they are moving up again. The avian flu reports over the last week, 7 new cases affecting 107K birds, mostly ducks.  GRAINS Soy was up like a rocket all week, until today. There will be increases in soy oil in the short term, hopefully we can see this turn back down. Wheat is giving back all its recent gains and we should see some lower prices on wheat. Corn closed at $4.39 today down from last week’s $4.62. New crop estimates will not be pushing this market higher anytime soon.   PORK Pork bellies closed today at $120 up from last week’s $112. This is still great pricing for this time of year. I do expect bellies will be moving higher into the summer. One analyst estimated we could see $180 bellies which should be about the top end of this run. Butts continue to be in demand and pushing prices up. Ribs getting the same push higher. Loins are holding steady, don’t see anything to push them higher right now.   DAIRY CME Thru Thursday’s close Butter is up 7, taking back all those recent declines. Both barrel and block are down 1. Production is good, I don’t see much to push cheese higher right now.  Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Stay Ahead of Your Needs

BEEF I’ve been saying for weeks to stay ahead of your needs, and I’m going to reiterate, stay ahead of your needs, as demand does seem to be ticking up a bit. Weekly harvest is not moving up to help meet that demand. Last week’s harvest was 528K head, down from the prior week’s 535K head. While middle meats are struggling to move higher, ground beef is on the march higher every day. Retail ground beef is now averaging over $7/# for the first time…ever. I don’t see this backing off any time soon. Increases in chucks and rounds are very modest but they are moving higher again. Thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, are showing some weakness, we could see a correction on this over the next couple of weeks, but it will be pretty minor. Staying with the theme, keep ahead of your needs.  POULTRY Boneless Skinless breasts decline again for next week. Getting to be a pretty big spread between breast meat and tenderloins, tenderloins holding pretty steady. Wings holding steady next week too. Production continues over last year running almost 3% up from over last year. Breast meat is turning into a great value as the price declines. On the Avian flu beat, a really good week, two new cases totaling 11,600 ducks.   GRAINS Corn declined this week, closing today at $4.62 down from last week’s $4.75 close. Wheat was showing signs of a bit of a run, but that is about done, we could see wheat decline over the next couple weeks. Soy was actually showing some weakness, until Tuesday this week, soy is now on the move higher. This could be short lived, but right now, soy oil is moving up.   PORK Pork bellies bottomed out last week at $104. Today’s close $112. Still a great value for this time of year, I’m buying bacon. Summer is typically a high demand time for butts and ribs, and both are moving up steadily. Loins continue to be a great protein value.  DAIRY CME Last week the CME looked like it was going to move overall lower. This week thru Thursdays close, butter is up 3 while block and barrel both declined another 5 cents. We’ll keep watching but I don’t see much to push higher in the short term.  Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Summer Grilling Had Me a Blast

BEEF We are rolling into the summer demand for things that go on the grill. The most common will be burgers, and I do think we will see burgers to continue higher every week, probably all the way to Independence Day. Production numbers continue in the same volume we’ve seen for months now. 535K head harvested last week, 527K the week prior. I really don’t see that improving anytime soon. We are seeing Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins and strips moving up again after a few weeks' breather.  Grinds still heading higher. Chucks and rounds holding pretty steady, but they could be moving higher if demand for ground beef gets those cuts added to the grinder. We should see some relief on thin meats, briskets and sirloin flap in particular are moving lower and that should continue at least a few weeks. It's an interesting market, I’d still stay ahead of my needs, but there could be some deals to be had.   POULTRY Chicken production continues to outpace last year by almost 3%. Demand is meeting supply but there is plenty of product available. Randoms and wings are actually down for next week, tenders holding steady. I do think this market will turn higher as we get into the heat of summer, but I don’t expect any big spikes like we’ve seen in years past. Looks like chicken is positioned to be on the grill this summer. On the avian flu front, another six new cases affecting 57K birds. No fun losing any birds but this is looking pretty good as the weather heats up.   GRAINS Took a week to figure out we don’t have a big grain rally after all. Demand for soy continues strong but doubts about deals with China are pushing all the grain markets lower. Corn almost hit $5 last week, today back to $4.75/bushel.  Soy has leveled off, I would not be surprised to see some decline, not much, but some over the next couple weeks. Wheat is shaping up to have a less than great domestic crop, flour is up a bit and of the three grains we watch, wheat has me watching.   PORK I absolutely did not have bellies for $104 at Memorial Day in my market expectations. I thought last week at $121 was something. I don’t know how long this low market will last but it is not something we would usually see this time of year. It's time to buy bacon! Contrary to that, butts and ribs continue to show strength and up a few cents next week. Loins continue to be steady and a great protein value.   DAIRY CME I didn’t see the belly market crash, and I don’t know if this week is a trend or an event, we’ll see what next week brings. Through Thursday’s CME close butter is down 6, block is down 6, and barrel also down 6. Let's see where this goes next.  Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Pennies Up, Pennies Down

BEEF Beef is ready to move higher into the high demand summer season. Beef harvest however continues with lower production numbers, 527K head last week, 534K the week prior. We may see small increases too over the next few weeks but I’m not seeing anything to make this market change the current mood of tight supplies and increasing prices. The move higher has begun with this week’s trading. Middle meats are already pretty inflated, but they will push up over the next few weeks. Grinds will be leading the way with strong demand both in retail and foodservice. Rounds and chucks have leveled off for now but should follow the grind pricing higher. Middle meats that pushed up so hard in April into May are holding onto all those recent gains, but I don’t see them moving much higher in the near term. Beef will continue to move higher over the next few weeks.   POULTRY Chicken on the other hand is in great position, increasing production about 3% over last year, increasing egg sets which tells me we expect to continue to grow market share and I do think keeping prices affordable will be a key to summer chicken success. Next week, we see pennies up, pennies down, this market is well supplied and feels in a good position to move into summer. On the Avian flu front, 6 new cases affecting 79k birds, mostly ducks. Any loss is too many, but this is much better data over the last couple weeks as weather gets warmer as this virus does not like hot weather.   GRAINS While soy has been the story the last month moving up every day, things have leveled off and we could see some giveback over the next couple weeks.  Corn is on the move, something not thought in months. Corn closed today at $4.90, the highest close since May 2025. Wheat is now the leader on the move higher, mostly from mediocre crop reports domestically and international demand. We are seeing the highest wheat costs since June of 2024. Expect price increases on flour and bakery goods.   PORK Pork bellies moving lower again, closing at $121 down from last weeks $125.  Good time to buying bacon. We typically see a surge in belly prices as the weather warms, but not this year. I’m watching but I don’t see anything to move this market higher just yet. Butts on the other hand are moving higher, about $.10/# for next week, that’s a good move for pork butts, ribs also showing summer increases while loins continue to be the value in protein.   DAIRY CME is a split decision this week, thru Thursday’s close butter is up 2 after a couple weeks decline, block down 2 and barrel down 1. Looks like raw material is in good supply so I’m thinking we will continue on this minor weekly change, at least a bit.   Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]