The Taxman Cometh

From Hiroshima to Iran

Looks like President Trump is caught in a trap of his own making in Iran. I warned about this on the 9 April episode. The problem with kinetic action (aka dropping bombs) is you must be prepared to bring total destruction to your enemy. Americans simply do not have the stomach nor the tolerance for economic disruption to wage total war. I do. You might. The vast majority do not. Especially in a hyper partisan environment. Iran I don’t know why Trump decided to whack Iran. I’ve said multiple times over multiple administrations that I give significant leeway to POTUS on foreign policy and will continue to do so with Trump’s decision in Iran. However, it’s pretty obvious he isn’t willing to destroy Iran’s infrastructure to destroy the regime. And for that reason alone he should have gone with a significantly more limited engagement and got the hell out. You either fight war for total victory with every tool and weapon available until the enemy begs for mercy or you don’t fight at all. Midterm Outlook GOP Gas prices = bad. Hard to fix at this point without signifiant changes in the ME. Gerrymandering = good. Rs finally playing politics for real. Messaging = no clue. I’m not really sure what it is. Democrats Gas prices = neutral. Helpful in that it might hurt R turnout but people do not believe Democrats care about cheap gas or lower prices in general. Gerrymandering = bad to very bad. Probably shouldn’t have gone so hard in Virginia. Republicans are weak but total a total gerrymandering wipeout in moderate Virginia gave them freedom to turn their states red. Structural changes to district maps may save the GOP House majority. Messaging = Trump is White Devil literally worse than Hitler Very effective for Progressive turnout and Independent no-shows. That’s it that’s all I’ve got. Live Free, Kalian Subscribe today…or the Commies win. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kalianosborn.com [https://www.kalianosborn.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

The Taxman Cometh

Your annual reminder that government has an insatiable lust for spending. It believes your “fair share” of taxes is all your money and everything you own. The only reason they don’t confiscate 100% of our property is because they haven’t figured out how to do it without causing a rebellion. And even if government did confiscate 100% of American income and wealth (with carveouts for their homies, of course) it would still run a deficit. There is no end to DC’s greed. None. Progressive Income Tax Progressive income tax rates are a total scam allowing elected officials to buy votes and pit Americans against one another. Spend $2 trillion more than you brought in? Blame the rich! Inflations rips because of your idiot policies so poor people can’t afford food? Ha! Blame the rich! You get the point. Merica vs the World Official Tax Policy * Flat Tax on all income. 9%. Yes, even if you make $100/week. * National Sales Tax 1% on everything. Yes, even your house. * Social Security Tax Stays like it is. There is no way around SS. It is what it is. * Corporate tax is a flat processing fee. 3% on all transactions. Yes I know it gets passed on to consumers. Question: what about deductions? Answer: never heard of her. Live Free, Kalian Subscribe today…or the Commies win. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kalianosborn.com [https://www.kalianosborn.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Hard to Swalwell

Old Boy Eric Swalwell was nuked from space in a totally uncoordinated media blitz over the weekend. Question: why? Answer: the Democrat Machine wanted him out of the race for governor of California. Democrats play for real. They are 100% committed to total victory, everywhere, all the time. Swalwell (obviously) is not the Party choice to run California. Allegedly he refused to drop out of the race. So the man who kept not only his seat in Congress but his security clearance after (maybe) engaging in coitus with a CCP Honeypot was undone in 48 hours over alleged inappropriate sexual conduct with staffers, subordinates, young journalists…I’m not totally sure because there are a lot of accusations. Now of course everyone in DC found religion and admitted that “yeah that guy is a gross perv always has been wow.” lol. ok. These are the people in charge of our Republic. Yikes. Welcome to The Jungle! Rank Choice Voting is bad. Don’t fall for it. California is > 60% D. With a lot of D candidates in the primaries there could be 2 Rs in the general. While R leadership would be good for California it’s inappropriate to effectively disenfranchise a super majority of voters. And the Jungle Primary allows for all sorts of manipulation (see above) by the majority party to select the “representatives” the Party prefers. It’s consolidation sold as democracy. Democracy When you hear politicians talk about saving democracy it’s very important for you to run in the opposite direction. They aren’t talking about a representative republic or even (God forbid) a direct democracy. They are talking about allowing you and I to vote for candidates approved by Leviathan. Live Free, Kalian Subscribe today...or the Commies win. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kalianosborn.com [https://www.kalianosborn.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

War and Politics

Bombing the F out of Iran a few months before midterms (as a Republican) is a high stakes gamble. Will it pay off? I’m increasingly dubious. The Stakes The Framers give us an opportunity for mini rebellions every 2 years. Unfortunately gerrymandering significantly reduces the number of House seats with any chance of switching Parties. Out of 435 seats roughly 45 are in play. This is lame. However, Republicans currently have a 3 seat majority while defending 25 incumbent “in play” seats. Midterms are typically rough for the Party in power unless things are going great. which they are not. If Rs lose the House it’s impeachment mania for 2 straight years. If they lose the Senate (53-47 advantage) you can forget about any appointments and Justice Thomas likely stays on the SC. The Challenges One - all wars cause market disruptions. A war in the ME disrupts the most importnat of all markets - energy. Diesel at the gas station by my house was almost $5.50/gallon. In California I’ve seen it over $8/gallon. Almost everything at Walmart is delivered by trucks with a diesel engine. When diesel goes up so to do the products we buy every week. “Trump bombed Iran and all I got was $9 ground beef.” Two - media coverage is brutal. BRUTAL. Three - the electorate has a very low tolerance for ME wars Four - the electorate also has a very limited understanding of what is actually going on. Five - Progressives hate Trump with the burning fire of 100 suns. Suppressed GOP turnout because of 1 thru 4 combined with 5 spells trouble. The Solution * Rubio runs point on Iran communication * it looks they are going with Vance…not smart. * Trump pivots HARD to domestic policy, especially affordability and immigration. * Trump went after “woke right” podcasters today. lol. * Give something to the MAGA base * Epstein stuff? I don’t know. Live Free, Kalian Subscribe today…or the Commies win. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kalianosborn.com [https://www.kalianosborn.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

OMG it's World War 3 Part 2

Short episode reminding you to evaluate the quality of the information you consume. Iran does not have thousands of sleeper cells. They do have longer range missiles than they claimed. Other Middle East powers did not rally to Iran’s defense - quite the opposite. European countries are not capable of projecting force without American support. CCP technology is decades behind ours. Secretary Rubio Secretary Rubio described the reasoning for striking Iran when we did…and it makes total sense. Basically, Iran was close to having so many drones, missiles, etc. future missions would be significantly more difficult. Send in the Marines Will we put boots on the ground? I’m going with probably not. We’ll see when the POTUS speaks later today. Midterm Risk Eventually we will learn why Trump decided to go HAM on Iran. My guess based on zero actual intel - Iran was close to getting advanced weapons they could use to close the Strait of Hormuz. No, it wasn’t Jews using space lasers to control his brain. But whatever the reason it must have been serious because this is a massive electoral risk. If gas prices rip and the bond market freaks (think 8% mortgage rates) the Republicans are getting smoked. Same if hundreds of Marines are killed securing oil infrastructure. Monitoring the Situation! Reminder - it’s good to be informed but it’s not good to spend all your time on politics. Live Free, Kalian This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kalianosborn.com [https://www.kalianosborn.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]